The Cipher Brief

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE/OPINION -- “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” The powerful statement by then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan delivered on June 12, 1987, in West Berlin was a clear demand by the leader of the free world directed at the leader of the Soviet Union. A year and a half later, the Berlin Wall fell, setting off a chain of events that ultimately resulted in German reunification, the end of the Warsaw Treaty Organization and the liberation of eastern Europe.

Shortly thereafter, the Soviet Union collapsed. Reagan’s demand had proven to the world the power of the West and the determination of its leader to bring an end to the evil political system represented by the Soviet Union—the 20th Century’s most imperialistic power.

The world of the 21st Century is now faced with a challenge represented by another imperialist and dictator, Vladimir Putin, the leader of the Russian Federation, who in February 2022, launched an invasion of Ukraine and plunged Europe into its largest conflict since the end of the Second World War in 1945.

At the time Reagan delivered his speech, there were already indications that the Soviet system was weakening. The Soviet economy was under strain from the costs of defense spending among other challenges. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, had begun a cautious program of trying to reform the socialist economy, recognizing that the Soviet-style command economy could not compete with the capitalist economies of the Free World.

The Chernobyl nuclear disaster had occurred 14 months earlier, shaking confidence in Soviet science and crisis management capabilities. There were increasing efforts by citizens of Soviet satellite countries to flee those countries and move West. The Soviet system was wobbling and it’s likely that Reagan’s dramatic remarks in Berlin increased the pace of the weakening of the Soviet system.

Similarly, the argument can be made that Mr. Putin’s system may now be wobbling.

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Last weekend’s stunningly successful drone attacks by Ukrainian forces against Russia’s strategic bomber bases located deep in the territory of the Russian Federation are an important sign of weakness in the Russian system and Putin’s incompetence in managing the invasion of Ukraine has long been evident.

Examples abound, starting with the bad Russian intelligence that Ukraine was weak that marked the initial weeks of the war, to the reliance by Russia on tactics reminiscent of the bloodiest battles in the First World War, to the astonishing advance toward Moscow by Prigozhin’s rebellious Wagner militia forces, to Ukraine’s Kursk invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation, to the ability of Ukrainian naval forces to drive the Russian Black Sea fleet out of the eastern Black Sea, and now the successful attack by Ukraine on an important element in Russia’s nuclear arsenal — an attack that was followed almost immediately by one on the heavily defended bridge over the Kerch Strait.

And today, after three years of war, Ukraine has the ability to infiltrate special forces and position attack drones undetected deep in Russian territory and detonate charges placed against the pylons of a strategically important bridge.

This is equal parts brilliant operational planning and execution by Ukraine and incompetence by the Russian military and Security Services for which there needs to be an accounting.

Vladimir Putin is an autocrat and autocracies are brittle. Eventually their leaders face a reckoning, and it usually comes from within. This war is Putin’s war. He started it for a couple of reasons. One was to fulfill his ambition to rebuild parts of the claimed territory of Imperial Russia which in his mind, includes Ukraine.

Another likely reason Putin started the war is to try and divert the attention of the Russian population from the massive corruption his regime represents.

Some estimates of Putin’s wealth now make him the richest man on the planet. The acolytes, siloviki and oligarchs that make up his regime have similarly enriched themselves — all at the expense of the Russian people. There is clearly nothing like using the propaganda power of state-controlled media to present the false narrative of a threat to Russia from external powers—in this case NATO—and to paint a picture of a “Nazi” regime ruling neighboring Ukraine and persecuting its ethnic Russian population. This is the propaganda that Putin used to justify his unjustifiable war. It—and he—lack both credibility and staying power. There will be a reckoning and that reckoning can be advanced through the strength and vision of Western leaders.

Ukraine’s successful drone attacks exposed the clearly flawed operating assumption by President Trump that Ukraine is losing the war. They are not.

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In some ways, Ukraine has already won. Despite the slow-rolling of support for Ukraine under the Biden Administration and the badgering and bullying by Trump of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian resolve to resist remains unshaken and their ability to inflict pain on Putin’s Russia continues to be convincingly demonstrated.

According to any number of sources, Russia is approaching a million casualties (forces killed, wounded, captured, or missing) since the start of the war. The loss in military materiel is equally devastating and Russia’s economy—even at full wartime mobilization—cannot build replacement equipment fast enough and must rely on aid from allies like Iran, North Korea, and China. Despite the seeming Russian advantage in the horrible mathematics of war, Ukrainian skill, daring and competence may, in the end, overcome Russia’s advantage in both size and population.

Russia’s response to the Ukrainian strike still remains to be seen, but the impact of the strike will certainly reverberate in the halls of power in the Kremlin and may present a threat to Putin’s regime.

This is why it is critical for the U.S. and the West to provide even more vocal and material support for Ukraine. President Trump and the Republican majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate should immediately advance the sanctions legislation currently under consideration and encourage Europe to expand their sanctions on Russian energy production and revenues. Russia’s economy is already reeling, but revenues from energy keep it from collapsing.

Ukraine’s attacks may also present a unique opportunity for President Trump to get on the right side of history and, in a statement as bold as President Reagan’s, call on Putin to end the war.

Let there be no mistake: this is Putin’s war and only he has the power to end it. Ukraine will not surrender or accept a bad truce or peace deal, nor should they. Ukraine will continue to fight, and one should not be surprised if Ukraine has more ability to take the war to the territory of the Russian Federation as they have demonstrated any number of times since February of 2022.

President Trump’s approach to Putin and the war he started has been flawed from the beginning. He must now realize that Putin is dragging him along with his continued talk of negotiations which is nothing more than “peace theater.” Mr. Putin does not want peace except on terms that would represent complete capitulation by Ukraine and the West.

Mr. Trump should take a lesson from Ukraine and use the current situation to demonstrate firmly to both Putin and the world that Putin’s aggression will not stand, and the United States and the West will stay united and support Ukraine. Mr. Trump has the opportunity to correct the record and get on the right side of history. It could happen in a speech in which he demands: “Mr. Putin, End this War!” Trump could add, “Before it is too late.”

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief

Why Al Qaeda Refuses to Die

DEEP DIVE — More than two decades after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Al Qaeda is not only alive — it has adapted, expanded, and quietly embedded itself into global jihadist networks. Despite relentless international efforts to dismantle it, the group continues to act as an umbrella foralmost all other terror outfits. Why? Because Al Qaeda fights a war that is not bound by time, territory, or conventional milestones. Its promise is not any type of material gain - it is the afterlife. This piece unpacks how a doctrine of “endless jihad,” combined with calculated deception and deep infiltration into allied groups like the Taliban, has allowed Al Qaeda to persist in the shadows — undeterred, underestimated, and still dangerously relevant.

Ideological Coherence: Commitment to the Hereafter

In 2019, a confidential source - an influential Taliban commander from the Peshawar Shura with ties to Al Qaeda - was discreetly brought to Kabul for periodic debriefing sessions. During one of these sessions, an analyst asked him why Al Qaeda had managed to survive for so long. The senior Taliban commander responded, “Jihad(ism) is not like communism that collapsed under pressure.” He then recited two verses from the Qur’an, Surah al-A’la (87:16-17): “But you prefer the worldly life, while the Hereafter is better and more enduring.” He elaborated that Al Qaeda does not make any promise to materially change peoples’ lives but instead prioritizes the Hereafter over the worldly life. The group fighters are not motivated by material gain — they fight for Akhirah (the Hereafter). According to him, Al Qaeda indoctrinates its members with the belief that this worldly life, with all its hardships, is a temporary test, and that patience is essential for achieving victory and success in both this life and the eternal one.

While such reasoning may not resonate with many around the world—who might find it difficult to dedicate their lives to a path of violence and destruction—this rhetoric has been one of Al Qaeda’s most effective tools. It helped the group not only survive the post-9/11 Global War on Terror but also expand its networks, territorial presence, and support base. Al Qaeda’s ideological narrative even enabled the group to pioneer some innovations in violence, such as establishing suicide units with advanced knowledge of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which were used to target the group’s enemies - including civilians - in dozens of countries. The group extended this ideology to its many affiliates and associates, as well as to thousands of inspired individuals globally, encouraging them to adopt the same rhetorical framework in pursuit of Akhirah (the Hereafter). The call for a better afterlife has deeply resonated with youth in various societies, particularly where individuals are searching for meaning in their existence or grappling with hardships such as poverty, hopelessness, and other forms of deprivation fueled by conflict and atrocities around the world. Such attraction of the afterlife provided Al Qaeda with the opportunity to expand by exploiting these grievances.

In addition, Al Qaeda’s leadership has employed a deliberate strategy to maintain ideological coherence across its global network. This coherence has significantly empowered the organization to continue its mission and propagate its vision of “endless and continuous jihad.” The concept of perpetual jihad removed any perceived need for a concrete timetable for victory, fostering a sense of strategic patience among its fighters - a mindset that was then instilled across its various branches.

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Localization: Process of Assimilation

In September 2019,during a joint Afghan-U.S. operation, Asim Omar - the Emir of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) - and Abu Raihan, his courier to Ayman al-Zawahiri - the second Emir of Al Qaeda after Osama bin Laden - were killed, and about a dozen others were arrested. Among those detained was an AQIS propaganda team, trained by Al Qaeda in Karachi, Pakistan. This team - comprising both men and women - was tasked with conducting social media-based propaganda campaigns designed to instill and sustain a sense of strategic patience among Taliban fighters. Their mission was to mitigate the psychological impact of the ongoing Doha negotiations with the U.S. The same team was also responsible for transferring their technical expertise to Taliban elements in Helmand and neighboring provinces.Undoubtedly, this was not the only Al Qaeda team supporting the Taliban in such efforts.

In April 2020, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) -Afghanistan’s national intelligence agency under the Republic - uncovered five additional teams trained and supported by Al Qaeda operating in various provinces, including Paktika, Ghazni, Kunduz, Faryab, and Kunar. This collaboration intensified after the Taliban’s takeover ofAfghanistanin August 2021. Numerous Al Qaeda technical teams, trained in the Middle East, arrived in multiple Afghan provinces to run social media campaigns on behalf of the Taliban and to provide training to selected Taliban members who had passed a tough security clearance process. Some confidential reports fromAfghanistaneven indicate that Al Qaeda teams take advantage of computerized automated programs known as bots as part of their operations. While the use of such bots is limited inAfghanistan, the group employs the same programs in other parts of the world as well.

Notably, the Taliban leadership officially denied Asim Omar’s death in the Helmand operation - similar to their response following the U.S. strike onAyman al-Zawahiri in Kabul in July 2022. Al Qaeda together with the Taliban even took steps to sow doubt among regional intelligence services. In one instance, a Taliban commander in Helmand sent a message via a courier to one of Omar’s family members in India, claiming that he was still alive. As a result, the family refrained from holding a funeral ceremony. This deception prompted some intelligence agencies to question whether to accept reports of Omar’s death and remove him from their watchlists. However, the NDS formally announced Omar’s death in October 2019, nearly two weeks after the operation. This confirmation followed official procedures, including forensic verification. This case illustrates how Al Qaeda and its affiliates manipulate perceptions to force intelligence agencies to waste resources confirming what is already confirmed. Given the limited nature of intelligence resources, such distractions can result in opportunity costs - forcing agencies to divert attention from other higher-priority threats.

Decentralization: A “Network of Networks”

Another calculated step, implemented with the support of Ayman al-Zawahiri was the transformation of the group from a centralized hierarchical structure into a decentralized “network of networks.” This strategic shift allowed the group to diversify its recruitment base.Once dominated by a small circle of Arabs from the Middle East, Al Qaeda evolved into a broader network comprising thousands of individuals either directly recruited or inspired by its ideology and narratives.Abu Musab al-Suri, one of Al Qaeda’s key ideologues, envisioned this decentralized model and is often referred to as the architect of the new Al Qaeda. This move significantly amplified the group’s global messaging and influence. Simultaneously, it increased the number of individuals appearing on intelligence watchlists worldwide. More people to monitor meant greater demand on intelligence resources, further complicating the already complex landscape of the Global War on Terror. The approach significantly contributed to developing and maintaining resilience amongAl Qaeda members and fighters. Obviously, the group’s growth despite intensified global counterterrorism efforts underscores the effectiveness of this strategy in enhancing Al Qaeda’s transformation.

The decentralization approach laid the foundation for another strategic shift within Al Qaeda. Ayman al-Zawahiri led a process to facilitate the embedding of Al Qaeda leadership and military cadres within local affiliates and associates. This helped Al Qaeda to lay low and submerge within other local terrorist groups. For instance, in October 2020, Husam Abd-al-Ra’uf, also known asAbu Muhsin al-Masri, one of Al Qaeda’s top leaders, was killed in Ghazni province ofAfghanistanduring an operation conducted by the NDS. During the operation, two of his Afghan aides were also arrested. The NDS later learned that both aides had dual allegiance to both Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Recent reports fromAfghanistansuggest that dual allegiance has increased among the Taliban and become a normal phenomenon within terrorist groups in South and Central Asia. One of the aides was responsible for providing protection and security to al-Masri with the support of the Taliban. Based on materials confiscated during the operation, al-Masri was responsible for providing financial support and technical expertise to several Taliban and HQN groups in Ghazni and surrounding provinces. One of his responsibilities was to bring cohesion between the Quetta Shura and HQN activities. The second aide, known as Zahid, was released after a few months, as his name was on the Taliban list of 5,000 to be freed based on the US-Taliban so-called Doha peace deal.

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Maintaining Authority: A Risky but Effective Approach

In 2018, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) arrestedAbdullah Mansouraka Ansari aka Masoum - the second-in-command of the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) - during an intelligence operation designed to capture him as he traveled from Pakistan toAfghanistan. Following his arrest,Abu Zar al-Burmi, who was responsible for managing Al Qaeda’s relationships with various groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the TIP, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and other regional terrorist organizations, contacted the NDS through an intermediary. He appeared to offer his collaboration, but his actual objective was to secure Ansari’s release. To convince the NDS of his identity and sincerity, Abu Zar traveled from Karachi, Pakistan, toAfghanistanand participated in several debriefing sessions. Once the NDS uncovered his true motives, the key question arose: why would he take such a significant risk for Ansari? The answer was twofold. First, he had been instructed by Al Qaeda’s leadership to do so - employing deception to facilitate the release of his “Mujahid brother.” Second, Al Qaeda needed to assert its authority and leadership over affiliated networks. Al Qaeda regards groups such as the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, the Turkistan Islamic Party, and other terrorist organizations in Central and South Asia as extensions of its military arm. Therefore, it views the protection and empowerment of these groups - even at great personal and operational risk - as essential to preserving the respect and authority it commands within its vast global network.

Conclusion

Al Qaeda’s survival is not accidental - it is the result of a deliberate fusion of ideology, strategy, and deception. By rejecting conventional milestones and embedding itself within broader militant ecosystems, the group has adapted to global pressure while remaining committed to its core vision: “endless jihad” in pursuit of the Hereafter. As long as this ideology endures - fuelled by belief, sustained through alliances, and cloaked in misdirection - Al Qaeda will remain a persistent and underestimated threat, not just to national security, but to the understanding of what truly sustains modern terrorism.

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The Many Parts of Trump's Golden Dome Missile Defense Plan

OPINION — “The Golden Dome for America Industry Summit will be held on June 11, 2025 at the Von Braun Center downtown Huntsville, Ala., at the UNCLASSIFIED level…The goal of the Summit is to equip non-traditional and industry partners with the knowledge and understanding of MDA's [Missile Defense Agency] and Space Force's role in Golden Dome for America, empowering them to take concrete actions that support and align with government requirements. There will be no planned One-on-One sessions, or panels during the event. Non-Traditional Contractors are highly encouraged to attend as MDA is extremely interested in ‘outside the box’ thinking and we believe that non-traditional contractors are vital to shaping the future of missile defense.”

That was a May 13, MDA announcement to contractors of an industry day to hear more about Trump’s Golden Dome idea for an anti-missile defense for the entire United States.

On May 20, President Trump announced from the Oval Office that he had selected an architecture for the system that “would be fully operational by the end of my term,” meaning January 20, 2029. He added, “We’re probably talking about $175 billion total cost.” That’s an amount and a time frame that most people with experience in relevant agencies believe are totally unrealistic.

Then on May 22, MDA released a pre-solicitation notice to publicize its intent to issue -- sometime in June -- the first contract proposals related to the Golden Dome architecture. MDA has given the bureaucratic name Scalable Homeland Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) to the overall contracting vehicle to be used by it and other participating Defense Department (DoD) agencies.

MDA explained, “As a long-planned strategy, SHIELD will allow MDA and other DoD entities to rapidly issue orders under one enterprise flexible [contracting] vehicle.”

But perhaps more importantly, these proposed contracts, according to the MDA notice, anticipate “a period of performance of 10 years, which will consist of a base ordering period and one or more optional ordering periods.” In addition, MDA’s pre-solicitation notice said, “The anticipated stated maximum value [of the proposed contracts] is $151 billion. Individual order awards will consist of various contract types.”

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MDA’s statement of work is breathtaking: “The MDA requires an advanced, multi-domain defense system capable of detecting, tracking, intercepting, and neutralizing threats to the United States homeland, its deployed forces, allies, and friends across all phases of flight by ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, and other advanced aerial attacks.”

It also calls for “continuous, layered protection against air, missile, space, cyber, and hybrid threats originating from any vector – land, sea, air, space, or cyberspace. This effort supports services and supplies of both classified and unclassified programs on multiple security domains.”

Perhaps SHIELD’s most ambitious goal is: “This contract will provide rapid delivery of innovative capabilities to the warfighter with increased speed and agility, leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning-enabled applications where pertinent, and maximizing use of digital engineering, open systems architectures, model-based systems engineering, and agile processes in the acquisition, development, fielding, and sustainment of these capabilities.”

It first should be understood that Golden Dome is really a plan to expand on various existing local and regional U.S. missile defense systems which are already deployed, plus new elements currently in development.

What these systems have in common are sensors and interceptors. The sensors must be able to track the target from launch through trajectory to terminal dive. Interceptors must be able to get close enough to destroy targets throughout their boost phase, midcourse, and terminal descent.

Gen. Michael Guetlein, Space Force's vice chief of operations, who is Trump’s choice to lead the Golden Dome effort, has told Congress that Golden Dome will require unprecedented cooperation among current military anti-missile systems, including ground-based Army Patriot missiles and THAAD interceptors, the Navy AEGIS ship-fired missiles, and the Air Force and Space Force satellites for sensors and space-based weapons.

Earlier, before he was named, Guetlein looked to the future telling a Senate subcommittee, “Investing in maneuverable satellites equipped with state-of-the-art sensors will enhance our ability to detect and track emerging threats, ensuring we can maintain constant awareness of the battle-space, provide timely warnings, and ultimately, deny our adversaries the element of surprise. These capabilities [will] assist to deliver on the President’s Golden Dome for America initiative and highlight the central role space-based capabilities will play in bringing that effort to fruition.”

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Guetlein also raised an interesting, unpublicized issue: One of the biggest needs is the approval to conduct on-orbit testing and training. “It’s a very constrained set of authorities that we have…We would ask that that [on-orbit testing, training] open up so that we can increase our readiness of our forces on the front line to be able to do that protect and defend mission,” he said.

Trump’s Golden Dome plan calls for “development and deployment of proliferated space-based interceptors (SBIs) capable of boost-phase intercept,” a weapon that does not yet exist.

As many experts have pointed out, SBIs would have to be placed on satellites in low-earth orbit so they could spot the flame/heat from launched missile during the three-to-four minutes of the boost phase that begins a missile’s flight.

Here is the tricky part. Someone or something has to give the order to shoot within a minute or two and your SBI has to be in position to hit the rising missile. Since SBIs are always in motion, you need a parade of SBI-armed satellites to defend against one missile, and twice that many against two, and so on.

Since Golden Dome must consider both Russia and China, plus North Korea as potential missile threats, that means the U.S. could be looking at 10,000 or more SBI satellites for even minimum deterrence.

There was a logical reason why the Reagan administration dropped the idea of its Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars), and I believe the SBI element of Trump’s Golden Dome plan may face the same future.

Needless to say just proposing Golden Dome defenses has drawn threats from Moscow and Beijing that their answer may very well be more offensive weapons – and perhaps some of them in space - leading to a whole new arms race - in space.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief

The Genius – and the Implications – of Ukraine’s ‘Spider Web’ Drone Assault

DEEP DIVE – Ukraine’s drone attacks against five Russian military bases on Sunday didn’t just take out a third of Moscow’s fleet of strategic bomber aircraft; they landed surprise blows to the Kremlin deep inside Russian territory, and showed what experts called a stunning level of intelligence and operational skill on the part of the Ukrainians.

Kyiv began launching more than 100 drones against Russian air bases on Sunday morning, destroying 41 strategic bombers – including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers that regularly carry cruise missiles that have been used to devastating effect against Ukrainian cities. Officials say the operation also destroyed A-50 planes, which are used to detect enemy aircraft and missiles, and provide intelligence on targets to Russian fighter jets. Kyiv estimated the damage inflicted by the brazen operation at $ 7 billion.

Ukrainian officials said the operation, codenamed “Spider Web,” was a year and a half in the making. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky touted “the absolutely brilliant result” and described it as Ukraine’s longest-range attacks against Russia to date; some of the targeted bases are thousands of miles from the frontlines in Ukraine.

Analysts are calling the operation “unprecedented,” a “game-changer,” and Ukraine’s “biggest blow of the war.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky touted Kyiv’s success on social media.

“A brilliant operation was carried out – on enemy territory, targeting only military objectives, specifically the equipment used to strike Ukraine,” Zelensky posted to X. “Russia suffered significant losses – entirely justified and deserved.”

But the damage assessments only begin to convey the power and impact of the “Spider Web” operation. More importantly, many experts said, were the details of how it was done, and the damage to the Kremlin’s war effort and sense of impermeability.

“They got them deep, deep inside Russia,” Adm. James Stavridis, a Cipher Brief expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, told CNN, saying “a way to think about these strikes — this would be like launching from Washington D.C. and attacking targets in Los Angeles.”

Former senior CIA Officer Paul Kolbe told The Cipher Brief, “if overnight, the United States lost one third of its nuclear-capable bomber force, heads would be rolling at every level of the military.”

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How it was done

Ukrainian officials said they had identified the five bases that were targeted as homes to some of Russia’s deadliest delivery systems – the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers in particular. The bases included one in Siberia and another in Russia’s far north region of Murmansk, both well beyond the range of Ukrainian weapons.

Ukraine chose First-Person View drones (FPV) which typically have a range of only five miles and are far less expensive than most weapons of war. Their operatives then smuggled the drones to sites within striking range of each of the five bases.

The drones were hidden in mobile wooden cabins that were loaded onto 18-wheel delivery trucks that were driven to locations near their targets. Reuters reported that the drones were concealed in the roofs of the cabins, and that early Sunday, the roof panels were opened by remote control, and the drones were released to carry out their strikes.

The operation was reportedly led by Vasyl Malyuk, the chief of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). President Zelensky said that Ukrainian intelligence agents had managed to work for months inside Russia, and that some operatives had done their planning near a regional headquarters of the Russian Federal Security Service, known as the FSB.

“The Russians are going to have to have a very serious debate amongst themselves on their own internal security,” Ralph Goff, former CIA Chief of Station told The Cipher Brief. The FSB, Goff said, “blew it big time on this one. Not only did the Ukrainians manage to get truckloads of drones into the country, but then they were able to station them near military bases and then carry out the attacks with impunity.”

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The impact

Max Boot, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the Russian high command must have been as shocked by the “Spider Web” attacks as the Americans were by the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941.

Kolbe and others said that given the current state of the Russian economy, and the time it takes to produce those high-end aircraft, Russia will likely have to fight the remainder of the war with 41 fewer strategic bombers.

“For Russia to lose these bombers, which they're no longer producing, that can carry cruise missiles, that can carry the heavy weapons loads and can fly the distances that they need to get to Ukraine to launch the missiles and return home, let alone to patrol the coasts of Europe, of the UK, of the United States, really is a huge deal for them,” Kolbe said.

“They will not be able to replace this capability anytime in the next decade or possibly decades,” Kolbe added. “And their ability to strike any target, specifically Ukraine, but any other target they might be thinking about down the road in terms of their own deterrence…is profoundly impacted.”

The Russian response was to call the attacks the work of “terrorists” and downplay their impact. The Russian defense ministry also said it had detained an undisclosed number of “participants in the terrorist attacks,” according to the Financial Times, citing state-run media.

But Zelensky said all those involved in the attacks were withdrawn from Russia before the first drones were launched. And he and others in Ukraine stressed that this wasn’t terrorism, but a strike against military hardware that had been used to deadly effect against Ukraine.

A harbinger of future warfare?

Ukrainian innovation in defense technology has already been widely praised and acknowledged by many outside experts, but these attacks offer evidence that low-end weapons can be paired with superior intelligence to do great damage. The drones Ukraine deployed are small, short-range, and relatively cheap, and they took out some of the most valuable planes Russia has at its disposal.

The Economist reported that Western analysts see the attacks as a potential turning point for global conflict, in that “even heavily guarded strategic assets are now susceptible to asymmetric, distributed drone warfare—forcing militaries worldwide to rethink base security, airpower survivability, and the future of deterrence.”

One more lesson from “Spider Web” is that Zelensky and Ukraine still hold some cards. “The fact that they were able to carry out a mission of this scope, with this reach, with these capabilities, without it being tipped off to the Russians or without it being blown in a counterintelligence way means that they really have upped their game,” Goff said. “And it's a necessity. If the West is going to threaten to turn off intelligence sharing, which the Trump administration did briefly earlier this year, if they feel that Western partners in Europe are not able to fill the gap, then they have to do it themselves.”

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Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric: Cold War Redux

EXPERT INTERVIEW — Russia has accompanied its war against Ukraine with an escalation of nuclear rhetoric reminiscent of that used during the Cold War. Soon after the February 2022 full-scale invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces to a “special regime of combat duty” in response to Western condemnation. In September 2022, Putin warned that Russia would “use all the means at our disposal” to defend its territorial integrity — widely interpreted as a veiled threat of the potential use of nuclear weapons — and insisted that the warning was “not a bluff.” Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has warned of “full-scale nuclear war” with NATO.

In November 2024, Russia revised its nuclear doctrine, which appeared to lower the threshold for use of nuclear weapons. The updated policy broadened scenarios for nuclear use to include conventional attacks deemed to pose a “critical threat” to Russia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity, and attacks by a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear-armed state. Both cases relate directly to Ukraine, which has launched cross-border attacks into Russia while being supported by Western military aid.

Beyond the rhetoric and policy, Russia has also taken more assertive actions with its nuclear forces – none more dramatic than the deployment of tactical non-strategic nuclear weapons to Belarus. Putin framed the move as a response to the West’s “aggressive policy” and similar to U.S. “nuclear sharing” arrangements with NATO allies.

Many experts say that Russia's increased nuclear saber rattling is likely not a prelude to actual use of a nuclear weapon, but a tool Moscow is leveraging to influence and intimidate the West. Analysts also say Russia turns to the nuclear card when it seeks to offset or distract from conventional military setbacks in Ukraine.

“Those steps are part of a game to impress upon the West that the Russians are serious and that there are consequences of the West doing something,” Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), told The Cipher Brief. “Or they need to demonstrate to the domestic audience that they're tough, they're not going to be pushed around.”

Kristensen is a co-author of the FAS’s Nuclear Notebook — a bi-monthly report which provides updates on the state of each of the nuclear weapons states’ arsenals. The latest iteration is about Russia. Kristensen spoke with The Cipher Brief about the report’s findings, Russia’s nuclear arsenal and doctrine, how the U.S. should be looking at its primary nuclear rival, and the role of nuclear weapons in geopolitics.

Kristensen spoke with Cipher Brief Editor/Writer Ethan Masucol. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Hans Kristensen

Hans M. Kristensen is Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists where he provides the public with analysis and background information about the status of nuclear forces and the role of nuclear weapons. He specializes in using open sources and the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) in his research to increase transparency of nuclear arsenals and is a frequent consultant to and is widely referenced in the news media on the role and status of nuclear weapons.

The Cipher Brief: Could you tell us a bit about what the report found about the size of Russia's nuclear arsenal today? And can you give some context to how that has looked in recent years?

Kristensen: We estimate that the Russians have something in the order of 4,300 nuclear warheads in their military stockpile. That is the inventory of weapons that is available for the military for use. But they also have a large number of warheads that have been retired and have not yet been dismantled. They're in storage on their way to dismantlement. So that's another 1,500 or so.

Their stockpile of 4,300, that is the largest in the world. The one that comes next is the U.S. We estimate the U.S. has about 3,700 warheads in the stockpile. Of the other nine nuclear weapons states, most just have a few hundred nuclear weapons.

China is now increasing [its arsenal], and has apparently passed 600 nuclear warheads. But that's a work in progress. They're not done, [and] they're expected to continue to increase over the next decade or so. So we'll see where they end up. They're not talking about it. They're not interested in having that conversation.

The Russians are much more established. They have a nuclear posture that very much mimics that of the United States, or the other way around. That's simply because the two countries were the primary players in the nuclear competition during the Cold War, and so they are somewhat shaped the same. They have a triad of strategic forces, long-range land-based ballistic missiles, long-range submarine ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers that can fly at intercontinental range.

And then they have a large inventory of non-strategic or shorter-range nuclear forces. There's a lot of interest in that category these days, but it's not something new for the Russians, nor is it increasing particularly rapidly. But it's something they have because many of their potential targets for nuclear weapons are in the periphery around Russia's border. So they don't obviously need intercontinental range weapons to deal with that.

The Russians are now in the middle – the second half, you could say, of a large-scale nuclear modernization of their forces that essentially is a replacement of Soviet-era nuclear weapon systems with modern systems.

The Cipher Brief: The report goes into this modernization drive. It seems that they're doing better in some areas than others. Is that correct?

Kristensen: That's correct. The emphasis so far has been in the upgrade of the land-based missile force. They're doing work on all the legs, all the elements of it, but there they have made the most progress. They have finished upgrading all the road-mobile ICBMs from the Soviet air types. They're working on the silo ones, still not done.

On the submarine force, they are a bit over halfway done with their modernization, which essentially consists of replacing Soviet-era Delta-class missile submarines with the new modern Borei-class that they have.

And on the bombers, they're not doing a whole lot new. They're upgrading the existing bombers they have. They will add better weapon systems, and they're modernizing them in terms of new engines and avionics suites. They haven't really gotten to the next-generation bomber yet.

And then on the shorter-range systems, [they’ve] modernized the whole inventory – land-based ballistic missiles, land-based cruise missiles, shorter-range jets with bombs, intermediate-range bombers with air-to-surface cruise missiles. And then the fleet, the Navy has a large inventory of weapons with anti-ship cruise missiles, land attack cruise missiles, anti-submarine weapons.

They also have defensive nuclear forces for their air defense systems, as well as for their anti-ballistic missile defense system – so far deployed around Moscow, but it'll probably spread in the next decade or two.

The Cipher Brief: Your rundown is a reminder of how much more of an established player Russia is in this, compared to China, which you’ve described as a work in progress.

Kristensen: Yes, that's very much true. This is a nuclear relationship that goes way back. They started developing their nuclear forces back in the late 1940s. And at some point during the Cold War, their arsenal was in the order of 30-40,000 nuclear warheads. That was insane.

Since then, it's dropped tremendously to what we have now. And part of that is because the Cold War ended and a lot of these missions fell away or they didn't need that much. And there was a window in the ‘90s where it was possible to change the relationship for the better between the United States and Russia, or the West and Russia. And as we know, that has now soured and we're back in a strategic nuclear competition with Russia.

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The Cipher Brief: Russian nuclear doctrine and policy is changing now that we're in this renewed era of competition. There was the change last year, lowering the threshold for nuclear use. Can you talk a bit about those recent developments?

Kristensen: The Russian nuclear strategy – they're thinking about how they would potentially use nuclear weapons. It has evolved over the last decade. The point being that because of the way they have been behaving in the context of the Ukraine war, they have from day one tried to get the attention of the West to not get involved. And from very early on, they referred – sometimes indirectly, sometimes very directly – to nuclear forces, in their warnings to the West to stay out.

The West has largely followed that in terms of not getting directly involved in the war. But the Russians also wanted the West to not deliver long-range advanced weapons that could help the Ukrainians attack inside Russia. That did not work. The West supplied those weapons after all, regardless of Russian threats. We saw the Russians got really excited about that and tried to change the public nuclear doctrine in such a way that it communicated that they looked at this very seriously, and would consider using nuclear weapons if someone attacked Russia with weapons, even conventional weapons that had been supplied from outside. They're really trying to sort of turn up the heat there on the rhetoric. They also broadened a range of scenarios beyond what had been described before. And so people very much interpreted that as a lowering of the threshold.

This could partially be part of the Russian public relations play, simply trying to impress upon the West that they're really serious about this. They may also have a domestic audience in Russia, of course.

One thing that's really difficult to figure out is to what extent has this doctrine change influenced the way the Russian military would actually use nuclear weapons? Does it influence the plans they already have? Does it influence when the president would say to do it? Do they need a doctrine document to be able to do whatever they need to do anyway? It's very hard to see through this kind of fog of rhetoric, documents, posturing and these types of things, and get to what is the real nuts and bolts here in terms of how they would actually use nuclear weapons.

They have a large inventory. They would most likely—I don't see why not—use nuclear weapons if they deemed it necessary for whatever purpose. I don't think they need a doctrine document that looks in a certain way to do that. It's a symbol of the dynamic nuclear competition we are in right now with the Russians that this kind of language, these kinds of documents and even training operations are being used to signal nuclear intentions.

The Cipher Brief: Rhetoric and language are one thing, but how do you react to things such as their deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, their withdrawal from arms control treaties, and increase in testing? Are those actions indicative of a more serious change?

Kristensen: No, I don't think so. Those steps are part of a game to impress upon the West that the Russians are serious and that there are consequences of the West doing something. Or they need to demonstrate to the domestic audience that they're tough, and they're not going to be pushed around.

The deployment to Belarus is important in the sense that the Soviet Union used to have nuclear weapons in Belarus and many other countries, but they were all pulled back into Russia. So now President Putin and [Alexander] Lukashenko, the Belarusian president, have come up with this arrangement by which the Russians supply [Belarus with] nuclear-capable forces—ballistic missile launchers, cruise missile launchers, ground launch systems, as well as equipping a small number of aircraft with the capabilities to drop nuclear bombs. They've gone out on several occasions and promoted that, having meetings and saying we're doing things. So far, we see these forces participating occasionally in Russian nuclear exercises.

The Russians see them as sort of an extension of their tactical nuclear forces, if you will. The nuclear weapons for them are Russia’s. They're not handing nuclear weapons over to Belarus. They're building a nuclear storage site inside Belarus that appears to be intended to receive these nuclear warheads for those launchers if it's necessary.

Putin and Belarus are going around saying, well, we're just doing what NATO is doing in Europe. It’s a big nuclear power supplying nuclear weapons to its allies and nuclear sharing, and that is simply because we want to strengthen deterrence and protect our allies—this kind of language. But militarily, it doesn't change that much because of course, it's not like there's anything that these weapons in Belarus can hit that Russia's nuclear forces already cannot hit. So it doesn't change the strategic landscape.

But it's an important factor and it certainly is unnerving to the Poles and the Baltic states. They see it as another [example of] Russian nuclear saber rattling. So that's going on and that's really the only fundamentally new thing you could say in terms of the Russian non-strategic nuclear posture.

There is, of course, a public concern about this. People are nervous about what's happening. But I don't think people should be nervous about it in the sense that the Russians suddenly wake up one day and start using nuclear weapons. You would have to go through a number of steps before it would get to that. And it would have to involve, as far as I can see, a serious large-scale conventional war between Russia and NATO before we get to any level where it would be reasonable to assume that nuclear weapons could come into use.

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The Cipher Brief: How should the U.S. be looking at all this?

Kristensen: The way the U.S. has reacted to this has been twofold. One has been about the need to modernize nuclear forces in general. The United States has gotten to the point where some of its systems are getting old. It wants to replace them. There's a big debate about how much it needs to do.

The other part has to do with whether they need to change their nuclear posture or operations in response to what the Russians have been doing. NATO and the United States have been reluctant so far to go into a tit-for-tat response. Whenever the Russians have been issuing nuclear threats, NATO has generally responded by saying, you're not a responsible player. We don't want to do these things. You shouldn't rattle a sword. But in any case, we have the capabilities we need to have. We have the ability to respond and there's nothing you can do about it.

I've been following the way that NATO and the United States have changed both the rhetoric, but also their operations of the nuclear forces. I would actually say that NATO has quietly changed the way it operates its nuclear forces more than Russia has. We see that in the shape of changes in where the bombers are operating over Europe. With Sweden and Finland having joined NATO, the northern area has become a very important operating area for strategic bombers.

With the ballistic missile submarines, normally they have been hiding in the ocean, not showing themselves very much at all. Over the last eight to 10 years, we've seen real change in terms of showing the submarines more by coming into ports in Europe or in the Mediterranean region. We see them come in, and often that means once or twice a year—that's all they need to be able to show the flag, so to speak.

Last year we saw a unique demonstration of that capability. A [U.S.] ballistic missile submarine surfaced off the coast of Norway and there was a nuclear command and control aircraft used to transmit launch codes to the submarines deployed to a base in Norway. This submarine surfaced, the aircraft came out, a couple of other ships and aircraft were there as well. They invited Norwegian Ministry of Defense and Navy officials to come out and board the submarine and show the Norwegian flag and so forth. That is the most overt, in your face, here we are with nuclear weapons, don't you do something stupid thing that I think we've seen so far.

So that's the irony here. The Russians are big on words, but I think the West has been bigger on action.

One last thing here is that the U.S. has just shipped a new upgraded nuclear bomb to Europe. It's replacing some that were already there, so they're not increasing the number of nukes in Europe. Now there's a big push in Congress among conservatives and defense hawks to build and field deploy a new nuclear sea-launched cruise missile that would go on the attack submarines. The U.S. used to have such a weapon during the Cold War, and there are people who argue that the United States should now reintroduce such a weapon. And the theory, of course, is that if they do it, then the Russians will behave and the Allies will be less afraid and so forth. But I bet that will not happen.

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From Kabul to Kyiv: Lessons the U.S. Must Heed for Peace

OPINION — Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, I’ve found the familiar rhetoric supporting Ukraine’s right to self-defense against Russian aggression reminiscent of the discourse that followed America’s engagement in Afghanistan. From the outset, I worried that Ukraine might experience the same trajectory: generous support early on, followed by political fatigue and eventual “abandonment.” The pattern of development of dependency—where the supported government is unable to sustain itself without continuous aid—can be deeply damaging and leave a nation vulnerable.

Regrettably, instead of fully leveraging America’s influence to pursue an early diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict, the Biden administration focused primarily on military support—an approach that, while critical in helping Ukraine survive the initial invasion, may have contributed to the war’s prolongation. To be sure, U.S. leadership in rallying allies and delivering weapons enabled Ukraine to withstand the darkest days and push back against Russia on multiple fronts. Yet the absence of a serious diplomatic initiative in parallel left untested whether a negotiated settlement might have been possible before the conflict escalated. While it is unclear whether Putin would have engaged in good-faith talks, neglecting diplomacy altogether limited strategic options and ceded the initiative to the battlefield.

As the war progressed, this approach not only prolonged the conflict but also began to institutionalize Ukraine’s dependency on Western weapons and financial aid. Ukraine has since become heavily reliant on U.S. financial aid, weapons, and intelligence. Yet this support has often appeared unstable, occasionally threatened by internal U.S. politics. Notably, President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled a willingness to halt support, a position that intensified following political tensions between his administration and President Volodymyr Zelensky. This growing reliance places Kyiv in a vulnerable position—strikingly similar to the situation Kabul faced during the U.S.-Taliban negotiations under President Trump’s first term. The U.S. held enormous leverage in both conflicts and thus bore a significant responsibility for their outcomes. As someone who was involved in the Afghanistan peace process and follows Ukraine peace efforts closely, I see a troubling resemblance between Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad’s dealings with the Taliban, and the way American politics are now shaping Ukraine’s fate.

President Trump has expressed strong interest in resolving the war in Ukraine and has cast himself as a “President of Peace.” As the leader of the most powerful country in the world, he does possess the ability to influence the war’s trajectory. However, the critical question remains: what kind of peace is being pursued? Will it mirror the outcome in Afghanistan, where the U.S. effectively handed over power to the very group responsible for the 9/11 attacks, sidelining its allies and undermining their legitimacy? The U.S. must proceed with authority—not another “Doha-style” deal which would send dangerous signals globally, about America’s reliability as a peace maker, negotiator and finally partner.

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Parallels in Negotiation Dynamics:

There are several notable parallels between the U.S. approach to the Afghanistan peace process and its current involvement in the Ukraine conflict. While the contexts differ, the patterns in negotiation tactics, treatment of allies, and use of leverage reveal striking similarities. These shared dynamics offer important lessons—lessons that, if ignored, could lead to repeated strategic failures. Three key parallels stand out:

1. Russia’s Insistence with the U.S. Led Talks:

President Putin’s refusal to engage directly with President Zelensky in Istanbul, insisting instead on first reaching an understanding with the U.S., mirrors the Taliban’s position during the Doha talks. The Taliban demanded negotiations exclusively with the United States before any engagement with the Afghan government. This tactic effectively marginalized the national government, granting the Taliban greater legitimacy. In Ukraine’s case, should Russia secure a deal with Washington that renders the U.S. neutral or less engaged, it would likely tilt the battlefield dynamics in Moscow’s favor. We witnessed a similar shift in Afghanistan, where repeated Afghan objections to their exclusion were dismissed as obstructionist to the peace talks. I recall several meetings at the presidential palace in Kabul, where Ambassador Khalilzad emphasized that “the U.S. does not need anyone’s permission to negotiate with the Taliban or to withdraw its troops.” This narrative became a rhetorical weapon to shut down valid concerns about an orderly and inclusive peace process.

2. Public Discrediting of Allies:

Another shared pattern is the notion of “undermining allies.” In Afghanistan, Ambassador Khalilzad publicly criticized the Afghan government—especially President Ashraf Ghani—for being an obstacle to peace, rather than acknowledging legitimate concerns. Ghani’s polarizing leadership style made him an easy target, allowing Khalilzad’s narrative to gain traction among Afghan elites and the public. In Ukraine, the tone of public discourse from U.S. officials, including the President, has at times appeared dismissive or critical of the Ukrainian government. This public framing can be damaging. It echoes the pressure faced by the Afghan government to make major concessions—such as the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners—despite warnings from Afghan leadership. In both cases, U.S. rhetoric has eroded the morale of partner forces and given adversaries the upper hand in psychological warfare. In Afghanistan, this contributed directly to the collapse of state structures and military cohesion. Language matters. Lessons from Afghanistan should inform a more careful, respectful U.S. posture in Ukraine.

3. Conditioning Support and Misusing Leverage:

Threats to suspend support for Ukraine do not advance peace. They embolden adversaries and sow uncertainty. American leverage should be used to end violence, not risk enabling it. Any withdrawal of aid should be tied to the successful cessation of hostilities and establishment of a viable just peace. Otherwise, efforts at diplomacy risk failing, and President Trump’s envisioned “peace legacy” may instead be remembered as a geopolitical failure.

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Recommendations:

Based on the lessons learned from Afghanistan, the following recommendation is crucial for avoiding similar pitfalls in Ukraine:

Firstly, the U.S. must avoid the critical mistake made during the Afghanistan peace process—negotiating directly with adversaries while sidelining legitimate national governments. In the case of Afghanistan, excluding the Afghan government and the Afghan people from early stages of the U.S.-Taliban talks severely weakened its authority, emboldened the Taliban, and contributed to the collapse of the Afghan state. This approach not only demoralized U.S. allies but also delegitimized them in the eyes of their own people and the international community. In Ukraine, the United States must adopt a different course. Any peace initiative must place the Ukrainian government and the people of Ukraine at the center of negotiations—not as a passive recipient of decisions made elsewhere, but as an active, equal stakeholder. Peace achieved without the consent and leadership of both sides of the conflict—the Ukrainian people and its adversaries—will be fragile, not sustainable, and short-lived.

Secondly, public messaging must reflect respect and unity. Criticizing allies in public, while signaling tolerance or engagement with aggressors behind closed doors, undermines trust, morale, and credibility. Strategic ambiguity can be exploited by adversaries to sow discord, as it was by the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Ukraine deserves a peace process that is inclusive, dignified, and respectful of its sovereignty. The world cannot afford a repeat of the Kabul scenario—where allies were sidelined, and adversaries gained the upper-hand. The U.S. leadership as always, must be principled, consistent, and anchored in lessons learned from past missteps. If managed wisely, the peace process in Ukraine could indeed mark a transformative legacy for American diplomacy, not only as the partner to rely on but as a negotiator with making the right deal.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

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U.S. Counterintelligence in the 21st Century: Confronting the Russia–China Threat Nexus

OPINION — Geopolitical rivalry with China and Russia is growing, and this is making counterintelligence even more critical to U.S. national security. Russia and China's intelligence agencies conduct aggressive, multidomain campaigns, endangering U.S. institutions, technologies, and alliances. To conduct these campaigns, Russia, encouraged by its conflict with the West since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and China, empowered by legal and technological developments, are combining Cold War tradecraft with 21st-century tools. The United States must internalize the timeless teachings of past espionage failures and quickly create a forward-leaning, whole-of-nation CI strategy to win this competition.

I. Cold War Legacies: Still Relevant Lessons

From 1945 to 1991, the West fought a constant intelligence war with the Soviet Union. The Cold War turned into a crucible of counterintelligence, producing legendary cases that still shape operational doctrines today.

Early on, the Cambridge Five, a group of ideologically driven British moles, demonstrated that ongoing behavioral surveillance is more important than background checks and elite ancestry. George Blake, who betrayed Operation Gold—an Anglo-American tunnel under East Berlin—emphasized the risk of insider access even in the most sensitive technical operations.

In the 1980s—especially in 1985, dubbed the “Year of the Spy”—the U.S. reeled from a wave of betrayals: John Walker was discovered to have passed cryptographic keys to Moscow for 18 years, while Jonathan Pollard was arrested for giving vast amounts of SIGINT material to Israel, prompting fears of secondary compromise.

More damaging still were the espionage careers of Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen, who together sold out American HUMINT networks and operations to the Soviet Union (and then Russia) for nearly two decades. Their actions cost lives, nullified surveillance capabilities, and exposed deep flaws in internal CI systems.

Each of these betrayals taught us lessons. Taken together, they form a playbook that the U.S. and our foreign partners should always keep in mind.

To start with, these enduring axioms surfaced in this period:

Always assume hostile services are targeting all parts of the U.S. government and therefore plan for depth and redundancy which allows for a quicker recovery.

While technical weaknesses can be exploited, insider threats are more insidious, so an insider threat program is vital.

The tools and laws for counterintelligence/counter-threat organizations and offices across the USIC and in our cleared contracting partners are vital.

Specifically, in order to detect threats, tools to monitor system access and usage for anomalies are vital.

System access, financial, and behavioral data must be integrated for real-time anomaly detection.

The USG and our closest partners agree that this is vital. The good news is that much of this is incorporated across the country in private industries as well, as IP theft is a real threat to them. However, there are gaps.

To understand the threats, let’s look at today’s CI landscape, focusing on China and Russia.

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II. China's legalized intelligence and strategic patience

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is a bona fide CI superpower. It uses state authority, a supportive legal system, and a worldwide economic presence to gather intelligence at scale. The definition of "state secrets" was greatly expanded by the 2023 revision of the Counter-Espionage Law, which made almost all international contacts illegal and made it possible to raid foreign companies, non-governmental organizations, and academic collaborations within China.

China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) spearheads expansive HUMINT and SIGINT campaigns. Cases like the U.S. conviction of MSS officer Yanjun Xu for attempting to steal aviation engine designs and the U.S. indictment of Linwei Ding, a former Google engineer, for theft of AI chip architecture illustrate the country’s focus on long-term technological advantage through espionage.

The MSS also operates talent-recruitment programs that target foreign and diaspora scientists and mid-level engineers to work on technologies that help their technical espionage goals. They do this by leveraging diaspora family pressure, national pride, or professional incentives. This is working for them: The FBI reports a 1,300% increase in China-linked intellectual property theft cases since 2010.

In cyberspace, China prefers stealth and persistence. The Volt Typhoon intrusion set burrowed into U.S. power, water, and telecom infrastructure using “living-off-the-land” techniques that evaded detection for years. These implants are designed for strategic activation, allowing Beijing to threaten domestic infrastructure in a crisis while complicating attribution.

And in space, China’s development of rendezvous-capable satellites such as Shijian-21, which demonstrated the ability to dock with and maneuver other spacecraft, suggests a capability to disable or capture high-value U.S. assets in geostationary orbit.

III. Russia’s post-expulsion reinvention

Russia has experienced some setbacks and is behind China in similar endeavors but is catching up quickly. Russia’s intelligence services, particularly the GRU and SVR, faced problems when more than 300 operatives were expelled from Europe in 2022. This no doubt disrupted their intelligence collection. Yet, although stripped of traditional diplomatic cover, Moscow adapted quickly. GRU Unit 29155 (which is responsible for special operations) shifted to using freelance saboteurs recruited online, to conduct arson, infrastructure disruption, and other forms of technical and psychological warfare intended to stretch European security forces and morale.

Cyber operations remain Russia’s strategic centerpiece. The SolarWinds breach in 2020, attributed to the SVR, penetrated over 100 U.S. government and private networks via compromised software updates, achieving months-long dwell time and deep access to internal systems. This would have allowed them to collect data and potentially leave behind cyber-sabotage tools.

This reflects Moscow’s doctrine of “information confrontation,” which combines the lines of espionage and influence operations. This is something the PRC does as well.

Proof of HUMINT operations informing technical operations can be found in the case of three German-Russian nationals who were arrested for surveilling U.S. bases for technology and planning bomb attacks on infrastructure used to support Ukraine in 2024. This underlines the risk of kinetic escalation via HUMINT collection.

In space, Russia is pursuing destructive kinetic capabilities, evidenced by Russia’s 2021 Nudol anti-satellite (ASAT) test, which generated over 1,500 pieces of debris and endangered astronauts aboard the ISS. These moves highlight the Russian aim to degrade U.S. space resilience during crises. The PRC is developing similar platforms to use in a time of war.

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IV. Common Tactics

Though distinct in each one’s structure and strategy, Russia and China now display apparent convergence on how they conduct their espionage and plan for winning a war against the democracies in Europe, the U.S. and FIVE -EYES partners, and our allies in Asia. Using their HUMINT and SIGINT capabilities above, they are already conducting operations to deny our abilities to defend, such as:

Proxy Operations: Both use third-party actors, freelancers, academic cut-outs, and contractors to avoid attribution while maintaining the ability to penetrate their main enemy.

Supply-Chain Compromise: Targeting developer tools (e.g., JetBrains, Ivanti VPNs) creates scalable, stealthy entry points missed by perimeter defenses.

Space Denial: Direct-ascent and co-orbital systems demonstrate that space systems are contested CI terrain.

V. A 21st-Century CI response: Recommendations for U.S. resilience

The United States must evolve its CI strategy from ad hoc protection to sustained, cross-domain campaigns to confront these threats.

How can it go about that?

HUMINT resilience:

Enhanced Vetting: Continuous evaluation should include psycholinguistic analytics, financial anomaly detection, and travel surveillance.

Offensive CI Cells: Expand the use of controlled dangles, double-agent operations, and deception feeds.

Diaspora Engagement: Work with community leaders to detect coercion, such as China’s “Fox Hunt” campaigns, and support voluntary reporting.

Cyber counterintelligence:

Zero-Trust Architecture: All IC systems should have identity-centric defenses with analytics on user behavior.

Public-Private Partnership: CI teams must implement proactive cyber deception and integrate with industry threat-sharing platforms.

Space domain protection redundancy & reconstitution:

Create launch-on-demand capabilities and numerous satellite constellations to achieve multiple redundant capabilities and decoys.

On-Orbit Deception: Install automated maneuvering scripts, laser-reflective coatings, and electromagnetic masking on satellites.

CI–SDA Integration: Co-locate CI analysts and counter-space operators to facilitate real-time attribution of orbital threats.

Integration of institutions:

CI Liaisons in CISA: Integrate CI officers into cyber defense teams to turn anomalies in the digital world into leads for human intelligence.

Supply Chain Security Board: Coordinate adversary technology dependencies with DHS, NCSC, DoD, and the Department of Commerce to achieve self- sustainable policies.

Allied Reciprocity Agreements: To speed up cueing, share raw threat data with important partners (like Five Eyes) rather than complete intelligence.

Modernization of the workforce and use of technology:

AI Copilots: Use LLMs for anomaly scanning in classified and open-source domains (in safe, air-gapped environments).

Language Depth: Provide IC case officers and federal agents with retention bonuses for Mandarin and Russian language immersion training.

Red Teaming: Evaluate agency preparedness and response mechanisms by simulating ASAT and day-after sabotage scenarios.

In summary, the Russia-China intelligence threat is an all-out, unabridged struggle for global influence rather than a short-term obstacle. The fundamental dynamics are still based on human vulnerability despite the new tools available. Even with today's fiber networks, cloud platforms, and orbital platforms, espionage still relies on coercion, ideology, and greed.

The US needs a resilient, integrated, and proactive CI architecture that has been developed for the threats of today and for future threats.

Integrating lessons learned from the Cold War with contemporary analytics, bringing CI into the private sector, and carefully and selectively training a new generation of professionals can create a defense that is as accurate as the threat against it.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief

As U.S. Retreats on the Global Stage, Is China Winning?

EXPERT INTERVIEWS – As the U.S. retreats on several global fronts -- foreign aid, global health, global alliances and others -- is China taking advantage? Many experts and critics of the Trump administration are worried that Beijing will seek (or is already seeking) to fill vacuums created by the gutting of U.S. support for global programs, and a turn away from traditional American alliances.

In some cases, it's already happening. China announced last week that it will give $500 million to the World Health Organization over five years, replacing the U.S. as the institution’s biggest donor. President Trump announced soon after his inauguration that the U.S. was withdrawing from the WHO.

Other examples: the U.S. has slashed support for USAID and other foreign assistance programs, while China’s aid to the developing world has increased; the U.S. has moved to shut down Voice of America and other federally funded media, while Chinese has expanded its efforts to boost China-friendly media in many parts of the world; and while the U.S. has cut funding for scientific research and places for foreign students at U.S. universities, China has recently opened its doors to global talent, including Americans of Chinese origin.

Beyond the funding cuts, there are changes in the U.S. approach to longtime allies – and China’s efforts to take advantage in that space as well. After Vice President JD Vance took to the stage at this year’s Munich Security Conference and criticized many of the European nations represented there, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a case for multilateralism and closer China-Europe cooperation.

“While not everything Beijing does on the global stage harms the United States, China will fill the vacuum President Trump has created in ways that benefit its interests and its people,” Michael Clark, a research associate for China policy at American Progress, wrote recently. “Trump is weakening the foundations of American strength and prosperity.”

How much does this matter? The Cipher Brief put that question – and others – to two experts with deep experience in China and the U.S.-China relationship: Orville Schell, Director of the Asia Society's Center on U.S.-China Relations; and Martin Petersen, who served as Acting Executive Director at the CIA.

“With the United States retreating, particularly from the Global South, Africa, Latin America, and other less-developed countries, it does create an opportunity for China,” Schell said. “Without competition, China has an easier job of gaining influence in the world.”

Schell and Petersen spoke with Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski. The interviews have been edited for length and clarity.

Watch now at The Cipher Brief YouTube channel.

The Cipher Brief: Do you believe China benefits in any way from policies taken by the White House over the past several months?

Schell: The first thing to note is that nature abhors a vacuum. And with the United States retreating, particularly from the Global South, Africa, Latin America, and other less-developed countries, it does create an opportunity for China. They are incredibly tenacious, and as we all know from the Belt and Road [Initiative], they're moving into this vacuum. That said, I think it's the absence of America that creates the opportunity for China, not the attributes of their system and their society, or that what they're offering that is particularly appealing. But without competition, China has an easier job of gaining influence in the world.

Petersen: China will certainly attempt to take advantage of any openings, but there's a second question that hasn't been asked. Equally important is China's ability to exploit those opportunities.

What does China have to offer to others as a way of building better relationships, as the U.S. retreats? I think it comes down to three things. Certainly technical assistance and aid, particularly if you look at what they've been doing in Africa and Latin America—they've been very active there. Some of the bloom is off of the Belt and Road program, but it’s still a tool China has and will use.

Second is expanding their trade with nations other than the U.S. – but here's the issue: something like $103 billion, around 15% of China’s foreign trade, has gone to the U.S. Some 16 million jobs in China depend on trade with the U.S., and the PRC has a lot of problems right now finding jobs for college graduates. And that's a lot of trade to move someplace else, including to Europe and the Middle East. I'm not sure those countries are going to be all that happy with aggressive Chinese trade policies that may swamp local products and industry. So there's certainly room to move that trade, but it's not going to be easy to do.

And then the last thing China has used is support for various issues in the region and around the world. The Chinese have been very active in the Middle East — often as a counter to the U.S. — but it doesn't really translate into a lot of influence that I can see at this point. And furthermore, if you're a foreign leader, you have to decide how you are going to react to Chinese initiatives. How comfortable are you going to be, getting close to the PRC?

And so, yes, I think there are going to be openings for the Chinese. I think they're going to be harder to exploit than some would have you believe.

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The Cipher Brief: To the point about Africa, there are cuts looming at the State Department's Bureau of African Affairs and elsewhere. There was a piece from the AEI recently that called the cuts in the U.S. presence in Africa “a preemptive surrender” to China. Do you agree with that assessment?

Petersen: I would argue that that's a bit of an overstatement. There are opportunities in Africa. The Chinese have been active there, but frankly, what does it get? I mean, you can pour more money in there, but I'm not sure that in terms of Chinese priorities — domination in East Asia and that sort of thing — spending a lot of their political capital in Africa is going to get them very far.

Schell: As we are closing consulates in Africa, or at least threatening to, China is upping its diplomatic presence in every conceivable way, whether it's through media, or investing massive amounts of money through the Belt and Road infrastructure projects in these countries, whereas the United States is really in retreat. So I think it does matter.

But again, there is the inescapable fact that China represents a very different political system, which isn't always appealing. And its soft power also is a little bit less lustrous than the United States. So it's not like it's a clean sweep, but I'd have to say we've exited the stage of much of the world, and we show no sign of upping our game — and that does give China an advantage.

The Cipher Brief: Is there a national security ramification to the U.S. retreat, and China’s filling the vacuum? The phrase we hear all the time from the intelligence community and the national security establishment – for years now – is that China is the “pacing threat.” Is this just about soft power, or is there a nexus between what we've been talking about here and national security for the U.S.?

Schell: There is a real national security question here. There are a couple of elements. One is the mining industry — whether it's lithium, graphite, rare earths, cobalt — China tends to have a real lock on a lot of these mining operations in other countries. And that means that it's all well and good as long as we were getting along in the old world of globalization, where it didn't matter where things came from or what kind of governments the countries had, as long as you could get it quickly and fast and at a good price. But now as politics enters the scene, who owns the mines? And even more important, who owns the processing industry? In the case of rare earths, China not only mines most of the ores from which rare earths are extracted, but it controls over 90 % of the rare earth processing facilities.

That means that even if we have a mine in Ukraine, which Trump has just signed up for, the question is who's going to process it to extract the ores for the magnets and the various things that we need, for consumer goods and military hardware. So there are lots of choke points in the global supply chain that China has quietly occupied. And one of them is in the mining industry, but also in things like silicon, polysilicon, solar panels, battery technology, which depends on a lot of lithium and other minerals. China has quietly just moved in and invested in these areas, and we have not.

Petersen: Yes, there is a national security element to this. I think Trump is forcing the nations of Asia to consider and make some decisions between the U.S. and China. That’s a national security issue. Our trade imbalance with India and with Vietnam is pretty significant too. At what point is this economics and at what point is it national security? You can't really separate the two completely. They're interwoven.

And here I think the world needs a predictable U.S. with a clear vision – and “America First” is not a clear vision. But look at Trump. He turns on a dime, and I think we've got to factor his personality into this. I think he likes big statements, he likes to push out and then — back off may not be the right word, but he adjusts his position. I would like the U.S. to be able to articulate a little clearer exactly what our foreign policy priorities are, and be able to explain those to our allies and to our adversaries.

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The Cipher Brief: The Chinese are trying very hard for obvious reasons to engage more with areas of the world where the U.S. has retreated — and not just in Africa and the Global South. They are pushing for better relations with the Europeans, and even the Canadians. To what extent is that going to be a boon for China?

Schell: The answer to your question is, we don't really know. But in regard to Europe, China is going to aggressively seek to switch exports away from America that now may not be able to take them because of high tariffs to Europe. But Europe is frightened to death because they don't want to have low-cost Chinese goods. Consumers will love it, but it'll put people out of business. The auto industry, for instance — Germany is dependent on its auto industry. If they let in Chinese cars that are well designed and well made at a much lower cost, it's going to kill their industry.

The other thing that China is trying to do is to ship things to Malaysia, Vietnam, other countries and have them assembled there, or actually sometimes ship fully manufactured goods and have them re-labeled as being made in these other countries. So we can certainly do something about this, too, in terms of our customs and tariffs, but it creates a tremendously complicated system where you constantly have to be vigilant about massively expensive systems and administrative branches of the government to investigate where things actually come from. So the old system is dead, where nobody really cared where anything came from, as long as you could maintain low inventories, get the things quickly and cheaply.

Petersen: I think if you're sitting in Beijing, you're balancing two or three different issues. And certainly your relationship with the United States is one of those. You also got your relationship with the North Koreans, the Iranians, and the Russians, and you've got to factor that in. There's talks between the U.S. and Iran on nuclear issues. I don't know how that's going to play out, but there are foreign policy pieces that are moving that Beijing is looking at.

They've also got economic issues, not just the trade issues with the U.S. but job generation within China. Finances aren't what they should be. The investments are not in the areas that are probably ideal for the long-term development of the Chinese economy and whatnot. So that's a second set of issues.

A third set of issues is, to the degree that Xi is talking about unification with Taiwan, a more aggressive Chinese military posture, and certainly in Asia, he's got to be taking a look at what happened with the Russians in Ukraine and think, do I have equipment that will function? Do I have armed forces that will be able to work together to achieve goals? What about initiative at the company and battalion and brigade levels? Will they be able to maneuver on a complex modern battleship? So Xi Jinping is balancing three balls. There's the U.S. ball, which is a big one. He's got his relationship that he's tied himself to with Putin and North Korea and Iran, and he's got these economic issues at home. He's got a lot on his plate.

The Cipher Brief: So have these first months of the second Trump administration been a good thing for China? A terrible thing? Somewhere in between?

Schell: I think China is — in a different way than the United States — in a difficult position because its economy is so dependent on the global market system functioning as it has, and that's now under threat. Moreover, the property market in China has crashed and is in a grave state of affairs. And this was the heart and soul of an important element of China's economic well-being. And there are other things that China has to concern itself with, like aging demographics, no immigration to irrigate the society with younger immigrants from elsewhere. And it also has a political system that for most countries, if they had their druthers, is not that appealing. They wouldn't choose it, but the United States has made itself so indigestible in some ways, that it makes it more appealing for them to buddy up with China. But that game is not over yet.

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Dear Mr. President: A Former CIA Officer’s Unvarnished Brief on Putin

Dear Mr. President:

I am hoping you remember me. I spent about 90 minutes with you and much of your cabinet in the Oval Office in the spring of 2017, when I was asked to meet with you to discuss issues related to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Federation.

I will never forget the experience of speaking with you, the President of the United States, and will always remember what it was like sitting across from you in the Oval Office - the most powerful leader in the world (and a fellow New Yorker). Most CIA Officers never get the opportunity to spend time in the White House briefing the Agency’s number one “consumer” and I was deeply grateful for the opportunity.

There were many moments that struck me as significant during our meeting that I will never forget. While discussing something – that I will not discuss publicly - related to Russian President Vladimir Putin, I told you that I did not agree with a point you made. Instead of getting angry or kicking me out of your office, you asked me to explain why I disagreed and after I did, you thanked me for sharing my insights. Mr. President, given what’s happening with Russia right now, I feel compelled to turn to you again to reinitiate our dialogue.

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A lot has changed since 2017. Since retiring from the CIA in May 2023, I have traveled to Ukraine multiple times and have seen firsthand, the horrible impact that Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine has had on the Ukrainian people. The majority of Ukrainians today support your desire to bring this unprovoked war to an end. But it is now clear that Putin is stringing the world along by claiming he wants to discuss “peace” while continuing to wage war. It also seems clear now that the only way to bring an end to this war is to force Putin to negotiate by significantly increasing pressure on the Kremlin.

Before your re-election in November 2024, many Ukrainians I spoke with expressed the view that only you could end the war because of the two U.S. Presidential candidates, you were the one Putin feared because you had already demonstrated your willingness to take decisive action against the Kremlin. They believed that you had both the will and the strength to stand up to Putin and make clear to him that if he continued to pursue his aggression against Ukraine - killing innocent people - he would pay a significant price.

I agreed with those Ukrainians and often reminded interlocutors and commentators that in my 34-year career in the U.S. Government, you were the first President who I believed was willing to hold the Kremlin accountable when it threatened U.S. and allied interests. I argued to audiences in the U.S. that during your first term in the White House you took decisive action against Russia when necessary. You were wise enough to know when to stand up to Russian threats, respond to Moscow’s aggressive behavior and terminate U.S. participation in treaties and agreements that Moscow refused to abide by.

Sadly, Putin has refused to listen to your appeals to find a peaceful solution to end the fighting in Ukraine. Despite your repeated efforts to engage, he is not taking the steps needed to support the start of serious negotiations. The Russian president refused to travel to Istanbul in mid-May to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy despite your best efforts together with the efforts of Turkish President Erdogan. Instead, he sent a low-level delegation to Türkiye, even after you offered to amend your trip to the region and travel to that country to support a meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian Presidents. He then expanded his attacks on Ukraine, destroying more civilian infrastructure and killing innocent people.

Putin is trying to convince you that he is more powerful than he really is. The Russian economy is suffering under Western sanctions. Russian society is feeling the strains of the war, which has cost their population dearly. While it is true that the Russians may have “a high threshold for pain”, they are still mothers and fathers who are growing tired of seeing their children sent off to die on the battlefields of Ukraine while they face increasing hardships at home.

History has shown that the Russian people also have a “breaking point” and will not tolerate incompetent and selfish leaders forever.

The results of the recent “Victory Day” celebrations in Moscow demonstrated how isolated Putin is internationally and his continued insistence on attacking Ukraine and the wakeup call you have delivered to our European allies has resulted in even greater resolution of the part of many of them to stand up to Putin’s aggression.

The Ukrainian people want peace but are willing to continue fighting to protect their sovereignty. Putin is not in a position of strength and is bluffing when he acts as if there will be no negative consequences if he does not sign a ceasefire agreement with Kyiv.

Instead of respecting your efforts to secure a peaceful settlement to the war, Putin is challenging your authority and insulting you each time he launches new attacks on Ukrainian villages and cities. He will not stop killing civilians.

It is insulting to the American people every time he launches air strikes against Kyiv when U.S. officials travel to Ukraine as your representatives or when your Special Envoy travels to Russia or we host Russian emissaries in the U.S. while Moscow continues to kill. Each time Putin allows his Armed Forces to launch attacks, he is sending the world a message that he does not respect the U.S.

Mr. President, on January 20, you made clear that if Putin didn’t agree to serious negotiations to end the war, you would introduce secondary sanctions on the Russian economy and significantly increase pressure on the Kremlin. Putin’s refusal to meet in Istanbul and his continued large-scale attacks on Ukraine should be seen as the “red line” that he has crossed, triggering the decisive and strong response that the American people are hoping to see.

To end the war, it is time for you to move forward with the introduction of those sanctions, increase U.S. military support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and place greater pressure on those countries that continue to trade with Moscow to end that trade until Moscow is ready to make peace.

Once Putin sees that you are ready to call his bluff, then he will start showing a real willingness to make peace and end this horrible war and the people around him will realize he is squandering an opportunity to stop the war and make their country more prosperous and secure for the future.

After our meeting Mr. President, many of my colleagues and family members asked me what it was like to meet with you and how you treated me during our discussion. I told them that throughout the meeting you were extremely gracious, asked excellent questions and appeared sincerely interested in hearing my perspective on issues I was brought to discuss with you. My sense was that you appreciated the fact that I had not just studied Russia academically but had spent many years working in Russia and dealing directly with Russians on a range of issues. You took the time to ask me about my previous assignments and background. I also stressed that before I left the Oval Office that day, despite your very busy schedule, you took the time to ask me to relay your thanks to my wife and sons for all the sacrifices they had made throughout my career working for the CIA. This last point was extremely important for me, because it demonstrated, contrary to the claims of many of your opponents in the media, that you value those who serve our country.

Mr. President, you have made clear that you want Putin to stop the killing. When it comes to Russia, now is your time to act on what you value most.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

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The Trump AI Deals in the Gulf: Measuring the Value Against the Security Concerns

EXPERT INTERVIEWS – When the White House announced multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence deals with the UAE and Saudi Arabia earlier this month, there were several reactions: surprise at the sheer scale of the deals; positive responses from the American AI sector, noting the investment and compute power the U.S. stood to gain; and – on the negative side – security concerns over the sharing of so much AI data and technology in another part of the world, and specifically the risk that China might gain so-called “backdoor” access to advanced AI chips and data.

The issue has pit tech industry leaders against national security and China hawks in both parties, who worry about that “backdoor” leak from the Gulf states to China. In the longer term, another worry is that U.S. companies might build the data centers that power AI development in the Gulf rather than in the U.S.

During his three-day trip to the Middle East, President Trump secured deals to supply advanced U.S. chips to the two Gulf nations and build massive data centers in the region. One agreement with the UAE involves the building of the largest artificial intelligence campus outside the United States; another would give the Gulf country expanded access to advanced AI chips.

The White House touted the deals as a bid to expand U.S. influence in the AI sector and boost the U.S. tech sector generally. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard W. Lutnick said the UAE agreement “launches an historic middle eastern partnership on AI,” and “a major milestone in achieving President Trump’s vision for U.S. AI dominance.”

As for the security issues, the White House said the UAE had committed to “stringent measures to prevent diversion and ensure controlled access to technology.”

Some experts – and Democratic lawmakers – weren’t convinced.

Last week a group of Senate Democrats wrote to Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging the Trump administration to allow more scrutiny of the AI deals. The senators said the agreements “amount to a breathtaking rollback of export control restrictions that have helped maintain the U.S. technological edge to ensure the United States wins the AI race.” The senators called for guardrails on sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to prevent sensitive technology leaking to China and Russia.

Some Republicans joined the chorus of concern. “The U.S. must lead the world in AI technology—but we must do it securely,” Rep. John Moolenaar, chair of the House Select Committee on China, said in a post on X. “The CCP is actively seeking indirect access to our top tech. Deals like this require scrutiny and verifiable guardrails.”

The Cipher Brief discussed the deals with two experts in AI and security – Janet Egan, a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and Georgia Adamson, a Research Associate at the CSIS Wadhwani AI Center. They spoke with Cipher Brief reporter Alison Spann. The interviews have been edited for length and clarity.

THE CONTEXT

The Trump Administration announced a major new joint AI initiative with the UAE, an upgrade to an existing “U.S.-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership” that will bring American-made A.I. chips to an Abu Dhabi campus and constitute the largest such project outside of the United States. The administration said the project will help American AI companies serve customers in Africa, Europe and Asia. Shipments of AI chips will begin this year.
The White House has said the agreement further aligns the global AI ecosystem to U.S. values, extending the “American tech stack” to a strategic Middle East partner.
Critics have raised concerns about partnering with the UAE on such sensitive technology, given the country’s close ties with China. The Biden administration imposed strict oversight of exports of U.S.-made AI chips to the Middle East and other regions, due to concerns that the semiconductors would be diverted to China.
Experts also warn that the deal could mean that in the coming years, the world’s biggest data centers will be in the Middle East, rather than the U.S.
The race for AI dominance has been a key part of the overall U.S.-China competition, with both sides heavily investing in AI research and development. The U.S. has imposed export controls to restrict China’s access to the most advanced AI chips and equipment. Competition in the AI space is part of the wider battle for leadership in global digital infrastructure and data ecosystems.

The Cipher Brief: What concerns and overall reactions do you have, given the recent U.S. AI deals with the Gulf states?

Egan: Something that concerns me and needs to be worked out over time is what security measures are being put in place to safeguard U.S. interests with these deals. Experts and policymakers broadly agree that AI has potential significant dual-use capabilities – that's why we've had export controls on them to date, and why there's been so much competition with China to ensure the U.S. stays ahead.

The U.S. has been the clear leader in AI, in terms of models, but perhaps more importantly, in terms of having the computational resources, the massive data centers filled with thousands and thousands of chips, really specialized chips and hardware that enable advanced AI training, refinement, and then deployment. What we're seeing now is that the U.S. buildup is starting to stall. That's because of domestic energy constraints, permitting and regulations, and the ability to build out massive data centers with energy infrastructure to support them.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are non-democratic countries. They don't have the same constraints when it comes to regulatory review, permitting review, or environmental protections, and they're able to override legislation overnight if they need to, to achieve their national interests. So when I see these really large deals of massive amounts of chips and computational resources going to countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, my first question is, how are we ensuring that the U.S. maintains a lead in terms of having the greatest capabilities? And then the second is, how are we ensuring that these chips aren't diverted to other countries of concern? China is the largest trading partner of both the UAE and Saudi Arabia. We should make sure we're considering these deals in that broader context.

Adamson: The UAE is incredibly serious about their goal of becoming a global AI leader. A lot of countries have aspirations and strategy documents to eventually lead in various elements of the AI supply chain. But the UAE, in terms of its energy capacity and financial spending that they're pouring into the AI landscape, is truly one of a kind in this area. And it really is developing as a middle and emerging power in the U.S.-China competition.

How does the United States engage with ambitious emerging powers in this area who – including the UAE – have not always been complete U.S. allies in this space, and have quite close ties to China? This has always been a question, a very national-security-focused question. So a lot of these companies that are spending tons of money in the UAE – U.S. hyperscalers like AWS, Google, and Microsoft, have really seen it as a big opportunity to get the energy, to get the financial capital that they need and that they argue is lacking in the United States right now.

The Cipher Brief: What concerns you most from a national security perspective?

Adamson: There are some real security concerns here. To start with, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have deep ties to China in various parts of their economies, including in emerging and critical technologies. Despite claims of decoupling at various points in time, for the UAE in particular, a lot of people in Washington have argued that shipping our chips to the UAE or to the Gulf in general, and offshoring this massive national security asset and competitive asset, is potentially offering a backdoor to China to access cutting-edge compute that we are completely blocking through export controls.

That said, plenty of companies, including U.S. companies who are involved in these deals, have stressed that this is not a backdoor to China. [They say] there are strict security controls that are being put in place that will stop any Chinese access to these chips. For example, Chinese nationals are barred from any entry into a lot of these data centers. I myself have visited one of these data centers in the UAE and saw a lot of the security controls that were in place. These are robust security controls in many ways. However, I think there are a lot of things that we need to think about very carefully, because once these chips have been exported, you really are not getting them back anytime soon. So you need to be sure and work with the U.S. hyperscalers who are operating about 80 % of the compute capacity that's being shipped to the UAE, to ensure that these really are stringent controls and that the Commerce Department has the capacity to monitor and to check up on these security controls being put in place.

Egan: There's two potential ways that China could gain access to these technologies through these deals. The first is not having proper due diligence on ensuring that the chips that are sent to these countries stay in these countries. We're talking about export diversion and chip smuggling to China. That can be pretty well managed with things like inspections and safeguards, and potentially even new technologies on the chips themselves that allow for the geolocation tracking of the chips, so you can tell if it leaves the designated country. But another more concerning way that China could get access to such capabilities is through the cloud. You don't actually need to own the chips and the massive data centers to use them and to benefit from them.

At the end of the day, we're concerned about these dual-use capabilities that China can't already get access to – the massive amounts of chips used for training these frontier or large-language models that are really driving forward capabilities. And that's where you need to have much greater due diligence, both in terms of who's using the chips – are they using them through a shell company? – and how can we ensure that this isn't actually a CCP-linked actor using these massive data centers to do things for nefarious purposes?

Adamson: Another concern is just thinking about these countries alone, without the China component. These are non-democratic countries with a history of surveillance and human rights abuses and we are giving them some of our best technology out there. And more broadly, today's allies are potentially tomorrow's competitors. Advanced AI chips are one of the biggest bargaining powers that the United States has at the moment. We want to make sure that we're not giving away that advantage too quickly. This is an issue that the Biden administration tried to address with a last-minute export control framework called the AI diffusion framework. And it really tried to think about how the U.S. can deploy cutting-edge AI compute in a very measured and thoughtful way. It's something that the Trump administration recently revoked, and we now have this question of how much do we as the United States diffuse our technology and flood the market with U.S. technology? And then how do we balance the security controls and concerns that we see from that?

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The Cipher Brief: What kind of guardrails would be necessary to protect our interests in this space?

Egan: The first is looking at know-your-customer regimes. And it can't just be an on-paper regime. We do this in the banking sector to say, you need to understand who your customers are, so that if there's large amounts of money changing hands, you can quickly identify money laundering and terrorism financing and put a stop to that. In the compute space, we don't actually have any obligations at the moment, even in the U.S., to understand to a great level of depth who the customers are who are using the compute. Often you get that information as part of your due diligence in your business, to understand who these customers are that are spending a lot of money. But once you outsource those obligations to another country, it's much harder to ensure that they're being done correctly.

The risk of shell companies also adds more complexity. Even on the chip smuggling side, we've seen TSMC, the largest chip manufacturer making these AI chips, actually send a lot of them to Huawei through the use of a shell company. And they just said, Well, it didn't say it was Huawei. It was much more complex than that, but they essentially didn't do deep due diligence to ensure that this company was legitimate.

So going forward with these deals, I think there's a lot of detail that we don't yet know and potentially a lot of detail being worked out.

Adamson: We have a government-to-government agreement [with the UAE], which involves some security pledges. The U.S. has in the past enforced very strict security requirements to any chips that are shipped abroad – regular reporting and monitoring of what these chips are being used for. Now with the Trump administration having revoked the AI diffusion rule and its entire stance on U.S. export controls a little less clear, the specifics of the security controls are a little vague. We know that security is an important commitment from the Trump administration, but to the extent that we can say what exactly these controls look like and how they are going to be implemented by the U.S. Department of Commerce, is a bit hazy at the moment.

David Sacks, the White House AI and Crypto czar, has been a big proponent of these deals and has emphasized the concerns of diversion as something that can be easily addressed with security agreements and a “trust-but-verify” approach. The next logical step in implementing these deals is, what does this trust-but-verify approach really look like? The details of those security concerns are yet to be hashed out.

The Cipher Brief: Supporters of these deals argue that despite the concerns about China, these moves are necessary in order to expand American influence and outflank China in the global AI race. Do you think if the proper guardrails are put in place and the due diligence is done, that these deals can serve both strategic and economic goals without compromising our security?

Egan: I think it is going to be very difficult but not impossible to get sufficient guardrails that are sufficiently enforced. But it will take dedicated effort and attention. This is not a small effort and the U.S. government needs to be willing to put a lot of resources and attention into this space to ensure success.

I am sympathetic to the point that you can't just say, none of the rest of the world can have U.S. technology. It does make sense for the U.S. to be the partner of choice, particularly in compute, which is physical and sticky infrastructure that people are less likely to just jump ship to move away from. And so that's where I think it's really important we do see exports happening. But you want to ensure that the U.S. maintains the lead in terms of the largest data centers in the world, because that's where we're most likely to see new emerging capabilities that could have big national security implications.

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The Cipher Brief: These deals are being cut with countries that have more of an authoritarian regime. Should we be concerned about giving transformative AI technologies over to countries like that? Should democracy be a prerequisite for cutting a deal with a country in terms of AI?

Egan: I think it's very hard to say democracy has to be a prerequisite, because the people you're making deals with are not going to sign up to that. And I think it's important to not take a binary approach of are you democratic or not, but actually look at the incentives and the interests, and where interests align and differ and to take that approach. I think we should be bringing more countries on board with transformative capabilities.

The Cipher Brief: Where does Saudi Arabia come into this? I know there's been a lot of focus on the UAE, but what about Saudi Arabia and these AI deals?

Adamson: Saudi Arabia is incredibly ambitious in its AI goals. During President Trump's visit to the UAE and to Saudi, there were some major deals that were announced there as well. Saudi Arabia had recently set up a AI company called Humain, which is a hundred-billion-dollar investment vehicle to generate AI infrastructure and an AI hub within Saudi Arabia. A lot of US. hyperscalers in the last weeks have announced major deals with Humain to build out that infrastructure within Saudi Arabia, including the shipment of tens to hundreds of thousands of chips. For example, Google had a $10 billion investment deal that was announced with Humain recently. AWS, AMD, the U.S. chipmaker NVIDIA – they have all announced deals in the last week with Humain and with the Saudi government.

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Where are the Sage Advisors When You Need Them?

OPINION -- “There are few things you can do that are more gratifying and more satisfying, and when you look back, being able to say that maybe, you made a difference in keeping the nation [the U.S.] safer or the nation better off.”

That was Robert M. Gates, who served as both U.S. Secretary of Defense and CIA Director, speaking to CBS News’ Face the Nation on May 18. At 81 years old, Gates showed that he still has a wealth of experience and insights relatable to the issues of today.

Starting with recent government firings, particularly within the Intelligence Community, Gates said, “The one thing that I would say concerns me, both at CIA and at the Defense Department, are the firings of probationary employees… This is the future of these organizations,” he said. “Most agencies should be reformed and should be made more lean and more efficient, but there's a way to do it that doesn't shortcut the future and also doesn't end up firing people that actually are really needed.”

When asked about current-Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s tendency to criticize the Biden administration’s focus on “diversity issues,” while emphasizing “warrior and war fighting ethos,” Gates said, “My view is that a big part of the warrior ethos is taking care of your people. Every Second Lieutenant learns that first thing…having a focus on being combat ready, on fitness, on those kinds of things absolutely makes sense.”

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But Gates added, “I think making sure we talked about various changes, such as the decision that I made in terms of women serving on submarines, and women going into the Special Forces and so on, the line always was, you can't compromise the standards. The expectations for women need to be exactly the same as they are for men and so a focus on that kind of meritocracy, I think, also makes sense.”

But Gates quickly added, “I think you also have to remember the military needs to look like the American people, and it does. And you can call it whatever you want, but we are better served, in my view, by a military that reflects the American people, and I think it does at this point.”

Gates acknowledged that the Pentagon needs to fix its funding issues and needs more money to fund needed capabilities. He also pointed out that the Department of Defense hasn’t had a budget going into the fiscal year, for the past 15 years now and suggested that alone was akin to a dereliction of duty by Congress, “because when you have a continuing resolution, you can't start anything new, you can't add to anything.”

Gates, whose interview came before President Trump delivered his own fiscal 2026 trillion-dollar defense budget, cited the massive ship-building gap with China as an area that needs attention, saying, “Between 2017 and 2024, the number of warships in our Navy stayed essentially flat. During that same period, China launched 150 warships. They have 250 times the ship-building capability we do…So if we're going to fix that, somebody's got to get off the dime.”

Gates views on foreign affairs also offered insights applicable to today, beginning with his look at U.S. engagement in the Middle East after President Trump’s four-day visit there earlier this month.

“I think, ironically, the Middle East may be one place where there are some real opportunities and possibilities [for the U.S.],” Gates said. “I think that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE [United Arab Emirates], are all so focused on diversifying their economies, reforming, modernizing, bringing their populations into the 21st century. It's a place to do business, for China, for the United States, for everybody else.”

Gates also said he believes that the actions Israel has taken since the brutal terrorist attack by Hamas in 2023, has changed the strategic equation in the region and in effect, has dramatically weakened Iran via Israel’s destruction of Hamas, a known proxy.

Although Gates failed to talk about Israel’s overwhelming destruction of the Palestinians in Gaza, he did say that he believes “it would be a very heavy political lift for the President to say he's going to cut off military supplies to Israel, unless they stop in Gaza. I think he can say a lot of things in terms of putting pressure on Netanyahu to stop the war. He can put forward proposals on how humanitarian assistance and other things might go forward. But…it would be very difficult for any U.S. president, I think, to say we're just going to cut Israel off from military supplies.”

Turning to China, which most experts agree poses a pacing threat when it comes to U.S. national security, the former Secretary of Defense said he is seeing Beijing being much more aggressive in both the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea, and that concerns him. “I think they put themselves in a position, if they chose to do so, to put essentially a stranglehold around Taiwan in terms of shipping and so on.”

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As for Russia and President Vladimir Putin, Gates said, “My own view, having dealt with him and having spent most of my life working on Russia and the Soviet Union, is Putin feels that he has a destiny to recreate the Russian Empire. And as my old mentor, [former Carter-administration National Security Advisor] Zbigniew Brzezinski once said, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire.”

More than three years into Moscow’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, President Putin is not giving in on his demands that Ukraine sacrifice all four of its eastern provinces, that is accepts Russia’s claim on Crimea and that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO. “He wants Ukraine, basically, to be a client state of Russia” said Gates and Putin is ready to sacrifice for it.

“The complete reorientation of the economy for the military industrial complex, as you will, it is very much what the Soviets did in many respects and- and I think he's got 21% interest rates. I mean, the economy is chugging along, it's got positive growth, but it's artificial” he said.

Gates sees problems for Putin in the future when it comes to a market for the country’s only real source of revenue - oil and gas – which continues to be sold in spite of U.S. sanctions. “The problem that Putin has is over time, those are old oil and gas fields, and what was enabling the Russians to extract from those fields was Western technology, the Exxons, the Chevrons, the other big oil companies from the West that had the technology. That's all gone. So over time, the revenue stream from oil and gas from Russia is going to diminish, and probably fairly dramatically, but it'll take time.”

I couldn’t help but wonder, after listening to the full interview, who in President Trump’s inner circle is able to share this same kind of experience and insight. It’s something the president sorely needs if he is to steer the country through its most complex time in modern history.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

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As U.S. Commitment Wanes, Europe Faces Questions About its Own Defense

EXPERT INTERVIEW – In the early weeks of the second Trump administration, questions were raised about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, as the White House appeared increasingly opposed to aid for Ukraine and took a more sympathetic approach to Moscow. Those concerns remain, but they’ve been joined by a much broader question about European security: Can Europe defend itself, in the event of a full-throated American retreat from NATO?

General Philip Breedlove, who served for three years (2013-2016) as the Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, recently completed a multi-country tour of the continent, as it grapples with those questions about the U.S. commitment. Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke with General Breedlove during his trip, while he was on a stop in the Bulgarian capital Sofia.

Their conversation ranged from broad European military needs to specific weapons systems to new measures the so-called frontline European nations – Poland and the Baltic states – are taking to counter the Russian threat.

“Deterrence is in the mind of the deterred, and clearly most people like me think about deterrence,” Gen. Breedlove said. “They think of capability and credibility. I think the West and NATO have plenty of capability to deter Mr. Putin. I do not think the West has the credibility to deter Mr. Putin right now, and that's worrisome...I think Mr. Putin senses weakness and he knows what to do in the presence of weakness.”

The interview has been edited for length and clarity. You can watch the full interview with Gen. Breedlove on our YouTube channel.

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The Cipher Brief: How much does Europe actually depend on the United States for its defense, and what's lost – in terms of countering Russia in particular – if and when this American retreat materializes?

Gen. Breedlove: This is a timely subject. And there are a few realities right now that will change across the next several years. The first reality that few think about is that Russia's army is really badly mauled and beaten up right now. If you listen to the Institute for the Study of War and others, Russia in the last year has gained about 1% of Ukraine and they've lost about 400,000 soldiers. Imagine that. And you had the destruction of the army of Russia when they first invaded about three years ago, in this portion of this 11-year-long war – their armies took a bad mauling in their armor and their rolling stock and their transportation capability was beaten up horribly in those first attacks that were repelled largely by Ukraine.

I'm painting a picture right now – the Russian army is not at its peak. It certainly is not 10 feet tall like we used to think. I jokingly say it's about five-foot-five these days.

So over the next several years in a land warfare context, Europe I believe could do just fine.

But now it's all the other things where Europe really depends on America. The maritime, the naval capabilities, the air capabilities — those Europe has quite a bit. But where America is absolutely the key to Russia is with all of the enablers, all of the things that make an army potent — long-range precise fires, deep technical intelligence, developing kill chains and target folders in order to strike.

There are a few things that really only America can do. Aerial transport is one. We're really tied to railroads and roads in Europe. The ability to rapidly move forces by aerial transportation is something really only America can do. Some nations have some small capabilities, but they really don't have the kind of strategic lift that America brings. Then there are the very capable intelligence and intelligence-gathering platforms that give us the multiple intelligence feeds – only America can truly do that. And then command and control, and all of the headquarters that NATO fights from. A strong backbone in those headquarters are American capabilities. And so these are things they absolutely depend on.

In a kinetic way, there is the penetrating precise-strike capability. Truly only the United States right now is flying the kind of stealth and fifth-generation capabilities in a sense of mass that are needed for that. We have nations now that are coming on board with stealth and penetrating capabilities and that will build over time, but the United States brings the depth of that capability.

The Cipher Brief: There was a report in the last week from the International Institute for Strategic Studies that said that it would cost Europe upwards of a trillion dollars and take about 25 years to match and replace what America brings.

Gen. Breedlove: We took almost a three-decade procurement holiday. We were enjoying our peace dividends for almost three decades. I was asked not long ago, How long does it take to recover from that three decades? I said three decades; you're bringing up 25 years; I think there's a lot of sense there. Very few countries could throw huge amounts of cash at this – maybe Germany and others can – but most nations, it's going to take time. We have been trying to make [Russian President Vladimir] Putin a partner for a long time and he has never intended to be a partner in Europe.

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The Cipher Brief: You see almost on a daily basis a new announcement from either an individual European nation, a NATO nation, or from Brussels on behalf of the whole continent saying, we're pledging this much new spending, we're going to hit this new percentage target, whether it's 5% or lower. How optimistic are you that the Europeans are doing the right things now beyond what they're saying?

Gen. Breedlove: I actually see a lot of very good progress. I'm in the middle of a four-capital swing in Europe right now; and another four-country swing in about 10 days. And what I'm seeing is that people are trying to think through the problem of the trade-off between current readiness, fixing the kit that they have to be able to fight tonight, versus investment in that long-term readiness, buying the next level, and they're looking at some pretty ruthless prioritization to figure out how to do this. So there are still a couple of nations, two or three nations that are – in my opinion – not yet showing the appropriate movement. But most capitals have determined that Mr. Putin is not a partner, he's an enemy. He has now three times amassed his army and marched across internationally recognized borders and invaded his neighbors and we're going to have to deal with him.

The Cipher Brief: I want to ask a couple of questions about specific things that European nations are doing, or talking about doing, to – as you say – “deal with Putin.” One has to do with landmines. Poland, Finland and the three Baltic states have said they're withdrawing from the international treaty that bans landmines and they cite the Russian threat. What’s your view of that change?

Gen. Breedlove: Well, if you’ve studied the eastern edge of the Baltic nations, it is not an easy throughway for anybody. In peacetime, there are complications – swamps, forests, narrow spots. And so if there is any territory out there where landmines could definitely cause massive problems for an invading army, I would say that it is the eastern flank of the Baltic nations. And remember, these nations now are really trying to decide: Is America a reliable ally or not? And if they're going to have to go it alone, they're going to have to take some pretty tough measures to make sure that they can hold, should Russia do what they seem to be continuing to do.

The Cipher Brief: And here's another unusual measure, that comes from Poland – a request that they've publicly made that nuclear weapons be positioned on their soil.

Gen. Breedlove: Doesn't surprise me at all. In South Korea and Japan, there are now intimations out of both of those countries that they think it's time to start a nuclear program. I don't doubt that Poland would love to have U.S. weapons there. Poland is going to buy the kind of aircraft that could deliver a nuclear weapon in a stealthy manner. Again, the world is sort of sitting back and watching what's going on in Ukraine, and they're trying to determine, is America a reliable ally or not? And they're going to start taking these more drastic measures, because you just can't bet your national sovereignty and existence on a hope.

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The Cipher Brief: One more question about Poland. How much of a linchpin or a leading edge are they, for this discussion about Europe defending itself?

Gen. Breedlove: They're kind of the anchor in the north. Europe has a new, amazing anchor in the high north – Finland, an incredibly capable and determined nation and military. They fought Russia to a standstill in the Winter War [in 1939] and others. Now you've got Poland, that has been steadily investing in capability, and taking their defense in an important way. And I think if you look at the Black Sea in the south, you've got a nation there that's not moving as fast as others, but Romania is fast becoming an anchor in the south. But definitely in the center, Poland is the army that has the capability to inflict damage on Russia.

The Cipher Brief: You noted at the outset that Russia is battered right now, losing all those soldiers, and the economy not doing well. Some might look at all that and think – well, it seems a little farfetched to imagine a Russian incursion or invasion against any of these countries we've been discussing, given where they stand. On the other hand, or the other end of the scale, there is what we know about Putin's ambitions. How should we weigh all that?

Gen. Breedlove: Deterrence is in the mind of the deterred, and clearly most people like me think about deterrence. They think of capability and credibility. I think the West and NATO have plenty of capability to deter Mr. Putin. I do not think the West has the credibility to deter Mr. Putin right now, and that's worrisome. I talk often about how our strategic deterrence is still firm. Our tactical nuclear deterrence is slipping every day and we need to take steps to regain and make that solid. Our conventional deterrence is still pretty solid inside of NATO, but we have no conventional deterrence outside of NATO. Mr. Putin is running amok in non-NATO nations, and then finally in the hybrid, the gray zone, whatever you want to call that war – we never have had deterrence, and we've got to establish deterrence there. And all of this really turns on our credibility. I think Mr. Putin senses weakness and he knows what to do in the presence of weakness.

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Ukraine is a Crucible of Innovation, Not a Perfect Blueprint

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – Ukrainian technology expositions are abuzz with enterprise and excitement. I have watched unmanned systems glide through preprogrammed routes or clamber over rough terrain, autonomously hunting and “neutralizing” mock targets. These are powerful displays of Ukrainian ingenuity. And the message from experts is clear: Ukraine is the template for future war.

But “a template for future war” doesn’t capture the full story. Nearly every Ukrainian commander I have met with on my multiple trips to Ukraine has voiced serious frustrations. “Western drones,” one regimental commander told me flatly, ” fail the second they encounter Russian jamming. They’re expensive, and most companies don’t listen when we point out their flaws.”

I have stood for many hours in freezing cold, wind-swept Ukrainian fields, watching drones achieve almost unbelievable feats. Ukrainian ingenuity has exploded since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, but what I have seen convinces me that Ukraine isn’t the straightforward blueprint for the future of unmanned systems warfare that many believe it to be.

Former Senior CIA Officer Ralph Goff told The Times that the U.S. has given Ukraine enough to bleed, but not enough to win. Yes, America and others have supplied advanced equipment providing Ukraine fleeting tactical victories. But no single piece of military equipment, no matter how sophisticated, delivers decisive victory for Ukraine—or any nation in future wars.

The war that is raging across Ukraine right now is not just a technology race; it’s a brutal, high-speed battle of adaptation. Military advantages come from innovating tactics faster, driving operations based on battlefield understanding, not just advanced weapons. One side unveils a new weapon, gaining a fleeting advantage. Almost instantly, the other side innovates, and the new technology forfeits its magic. The cycle is relentless.

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So, what is the path to a decisive advantage? It’s not about isolated pieces of technology. Victory will go to whichever side masters the art of weaving all their assets—drones, sensors, troops, and intelligence—into a single, coherent fighting system. The power of future unmanned technology won’t be in the individual brilliance of the machines, but in our ability to choreograph, making every capability coalesce into a single, devastating strategic focus across the battlespace. That’s where the fight for the future lies.

My own deployments hammered this home. I marveled at Tactical Operations Centers with walls blazing with high-definition video, a constant stream of enemy movements from every conceivable angle. But the giant screens did not provide the military advantage. It was the analysts whose eyes were glued to intelligence feeds day and night. They waded through torrents of incoming data, spotted the flicker of critical indicators, connected seemingly random information, and essentially determined where and when to focus operations. Their ability to make sense of chaos and to anticipate enemy movements was the combat multiplier, not the technology.

And that human-led synchronization, that tremendous ability to turn a flood of information into decisive action, will be the differentiator in future warfare. I see this with clarity, especially as every military now scrambles to incorporate unmanned systems, lowering risks, conducting deadlier strikes, and reducing the cost of warfare.

But here is the reality in Ukraine. A Ukrainian commander recently explained that his unit flies 1,200 drone missions a day across a 130-kilometer stretch of front line. Let that sink in.

When I was deployed with a special operations joint task force at the height of the fight against the Islamic State, we considered ourselves fortunate to have twenty drone missions daily. The scale of today’s unmanned systems is overwhelming. The lesson here is not about sending more drones. We must build smart systems to digest tremendous quantities of data and quickly translate information into battlefield dominance.

So, if flooding the battlefield with more drones is not the path to victory, what is?

From my perspective, having unmanned systems everywhere will only result in short-term tactical successes, but not strategic victory. What will really decide who emerges victorious from future fights is the intelligence drawn from ubiquitous autonomous unmanned systems, improved sensors, and from artificial intelligence, all synchronized with advanced weapons into an integrated capability.

Improved sensors will not just see but will perceive—cutting through ambiguity in ways our legacy systems are currently not able to do. This technology exists in Ukraine: commercial sensor technology, adapted for combat, that leaves what we relied on during the War on Terror behind. The clarity and richness of information is revolutionary.

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Now consider autonomy. This is rapidly becoming battlefield reality. Future systems shift from one human painstakingly piloting one drone, to a single operator orchestrating an entire swarm. Ukrainians are already pushing the envelope with autonomous drone swarms – hundreds of air, land, and sea drones acting in concert, autonomously making tactical decisions, reacting to opportunities with or without a human in the loop. That again is a revolutionary jump in combat power.

Artificial Intelligence can instantly process the deluge of data into coherent understanding. Think back to the brilliant, but overworked analysts I saw working day and night in our tactical operations centers. AI is poised to become their force multiplier—sifting through data at machine speed, detecting subtle patterns and making connections that a human might miss, especially through overworked eyes, to identify fleeting opportunities. This will not negate the importance of commanders. Instead, AI will arm commanders with critical insights necessary to synchronize a myriad of capabilities and create devastating effects across the battlespace.

All these powerful pieces—the groundbreaking sensors, the self-directing swarms, the AI—are being employed in modern combat in Ukraine. But right now, they’re mostly operating in stove pipes, each sequestered from the other, operating in technological silos. The vital nervous system needed to fuse their individual brilliance into a cohesive, battlefield-dominating whole, that will enable commanders to truly understand and synchronize the fight, is often absent.

War remains the most ferocious engine of innovation any of us have ever witnessed. What the Ukrainian armed forces have accomplished in over three years of brutal, relentless attacks is, by any measure, astounding. They have demonstrated incredible tech acumen, staring down a Goliath—a vastly better-resourced, larger, and supposedly more advanced enemy—and not just holding, but often punching back with stunning ingenuity. The Ukrainians’ ability to adapt and innovate under fire is a powerful testament to what’s possible.

Understanding these current limitations and burgeoning capabilities brings Goff’s observation into focus, especially regarding the future interplay of Ukrainian innovation and Western military potential.

The U.S. has not sent Ukraine our most advanced systems. The challenge with Ukraine receiving military aid from multiple countries while simultaneously scaling their own defense manufacturing is the extraordinary challenge of employing everything as the system of systems which is needed to win.

Meanwhile, the West is learning lessons from this conflict and upgrading our own fighting capabilities. Our most formidable assets—Gen V fighters, advanced long-range precision artillery, Special Operations Forces—have been deliberately kept out of this modern crucible.

What happens when these streams converge? Imagine those incredible, battle-forged unmanned systems—Ukrainian innovations born from three relentless years of combat—not fighting as singular capabilities, but unleashed in concert with top-tier, military might.

When the unmanned systems innovation we have witnessed in Ukraine is fused with the full, unbridled force of advanced airpower, precision fires, and special operations forces, all operating with unity of effort, the world will see a synchronized and terrifying level of speed and precision lethality we cannot yet truly conceive.

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A Short Diary from Ukraine’s War: One American’s Story from Kyiv

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — I arrived to Kyiv in January 2025, at a time when the war with Russia was almost three years old. My purpose was professional and deeply personal: to contribute what I could to Ukraine’s defense by introducing a course on national security strategy at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE). I understood that I was not just arriving to teach a class. I was stepping into a nation’s moment of peril and possibility.

BG (ret.) Kevin Ryan in front of bombed building in Kyiv.

The official task was to design and propose a course on national security that could educate the next generation of Ukrainian leaders. Unofficially, I came to show solidarity and to reaffirm—through my presence and work—that Ukraine still had American friends willing to stand with them. I hoped that by doing something meaningful here, I might also give a voice to those Americans who want to be here to help but can’t.

I had traveled and lived in Eastern Europe and Russia before, and I knew I would not just change time zones along the way but cultures too. I left the United States on an American airline, transferring to a Polish carrier in Amsterdam, before boarding a train in Warsaw. Each transfer took me farther from my world in America.

From Warsaw I traveled to the border with Ukraine. There the train cars, built for use throughout western Europe, had to be refitted with wheels on wider axles to fit the different rail gauge (1522mm) of the East; a legacy of Russia’s empire. Signs changed. Languages changed. The only thing that wasn’t changing was the countryside. It remained the same as we moved through the winter night from Poland into Ukraine; dark forests of leafless birch trees alternating with open moonlit farmland. But the sensation of having left one world and entering another was real. Always in my travels to the East I have the feeling of coming to an edge, a precipice, as I move from the West and back again. Ukraine is trying to rid itself of that “edge” with the West – an effort that Russia violently opposes.

Air Raid App Warning Map on BG (ret.) Kevin Ryan’s Phone

In Kyiv, I spent my first nights in a city center hotel. Like other inhabitants of Ukraine’s capital, I added an app to my smartphone that would sound an alarm when an air raid alert was issued by the government. The alarm ensures that even if you are far from the sirens, you will still receive the warning. My first night in Kyiv, the warnings came shortly after midnight. I dressed quickly and went to the front desk to ask where the ukrittya (shelter) was. As the woman at the desk came around the counter and started to walk me to the shelter in the parking garage below the hotel, I noticed that I seemed to be the only person in the whole hotel who had bothered to come downstairs. Being retired army and not wanting to appear afraid, I asked, “Am I the only one to come to the shelter?” She paused, looked kindly at me, and said, “Well let’s say you’re the first.” I laughed out loud at her attempt to soothe my ego.

Most of the people who live here are used to the air raids that come at night when Russian drones are harder to find and knock out. I learned the local custom of checking the military blog sites on the Telegram app for the type of threat an air raid was announcing – drones or missiles – before deciding whether to get out of bed and go to the shelter. (Drones are often waved off but missiles are taken seriously.) And over time, I began to sleep through the air raids, understanding that the real damage from the frequent alerts was the loss of sleep rather than physical harm. It may sound like carelessness, but most people who have lived a life responding to alerts or alarms – soldiers, nurses, police, firemen – know that a balance of reaction and disregard must be found. I found my balance for Kyiv. Of course, the farther east toward the front lines, the more that balance shifts from bed to shelter.

The Kyiv School of Economics is a relatively young university but growing rapidly from just 200 students a couple years ago to a projected 2,000 in two more. Students learn in English to help break the old ties to the East and cement ties to the West. I was asked to come to the school to create a course on national security. Ukraine has a national security council and a national security strategy, but in my research, I found no civilian school teaching how to create such a strategy. KSE is the first civilian university in Ukraine to teach on the subject.

Students from the Kyiv School of Economics attending a workshop

The war has touched every corner of Ukraine and KSE is no exception. Some university faculty are away working in the government or serving in the military. The university sometimes works directly with front line units to improve their leadership and management training. Like all other Ukrainian universities, because of the war, KSE must also conduct almost a hundred hours of “pre-military” training and education for students at the school.

Ukrainians understand the bifurcated life of living in a country being invaded – something that most Europeans haven’t known for a couple generations. Throughout the eastern part of Ukraine, where government forces battle Russian troops on occupied territory, there is daily death and devastation. Living in cities like Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Sumy is truly life threatening. Farther west in Kyiv, there are nightly attacks by drones and missiles. But during the day, despite occasional daytime air raids, people move about the city in buses and Ubers; working, going to school, shopping. There is food in the stores, music in the clubs, and restaurants are open – at least until the mandatory night -ime curfew. Life can seem oddly normal until suddenly, a Russian missile targets a neighborhood and its residents.

KSE Classroom in a bomb shelter

Air raid alerts come every night, often more than a half dozen in a row. One night I counted 20 alerts. In February, Kyiv was hit with the largest drone assault since the full-scale invasion began. On April 24, Kyiv was struck by an even bigger attack with Iskandr ballistic missiles, Kalibr Cruise missiles, and drones. Twelve people were reported killed and 90 civilians injured. This time I wasn’t the first one in the shelter.

I spent my military career deterring and interacting with the Soviet, then Russian, armed forces. But I had not studied or met with members of the Ukrainian military and like many in the West, I was surprised at the success and innovativeness of Ukraine’s forces.

I accompanied one KSE visit to the 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Regiment in a city to the east of Kyiv. The 14th Regiment is a small but strategically significant unit conducting long-range drone strikes into Russian territory. Ukraine’s use of drones in air and naval operations has been nothing short of revolutionary.

Air Raid Warnings on BG (ret.) Kevin Ryan’s iPhone App

Short- and long-range drones have changed the character of the ground war from one of maneuver to a positional one (trench warfare). Today, Ukraine kills more Russian invaders with drones than with traditional fire. And with naval drones, Ukraine has chased the Russian Black Sea Fleet from its bases in Crimea negating one of Russia’s major strategic goals – dominance in the Black Sea region. Russia has also learned to use drones and both sides struggle now to maneuver.

What stood out to me about the 14th UAV Regiment was not only their effectiveness but their ingenuity. With limited resources, the regiment has developed their own methods for targeting, coordination, and training. They created their own business making drones. Decision-making mirrors western military doctrine more than post-Soviet hierarchies. Morale is high. These soldiers understand the strategic impact of their missions, and they want to do even more. So, they contacted KSE seeking management training for their specialized missions.

As a result of the war’s casualties and growth of the force, many new Ukrainian officers have been recruited to lead combat units. These officers, largely born after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, had been living as businessmen and entrepreneurs before the war. They are educated in western thinking and leadership methods. Now they have moved into mid-level leadership positions in the military commanding battalions and brigades. They are striving to employ the western kinds of management they know from their civilian careers but often run up against old thinking at the higher levels of the Ukrainian military.

Ukrainian military recruiting poster, “Mom, I’m in Azov.”

This new generation of military leaders are seeking help to modernize training and leadership practices. They are clear eyed about the challenges they face—rigid hierarchies, outdated curricula, and a reluctance among senior leaders to delegate authority or tolerate innovation. They express particular interest in “mission command” principles, non-commissioned officer empowerment, and experiential learning based on U.S. and NATO doctrines. KSE is trying to help them by bringing educational materials to the front.

I shared my own experiences in those fields and, in some cases, was able to link commanders with trainers and resources that were already being offered by the U.S. and other western militaries. These Ukrainian officers understand that without institutional support from the top, lasting change will come slowly, but they are determined to start somewhere.

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One of the most insightful geopolitical exchanges I have had at KSE came not with a professor of international relations or a general, but an English teacher. KSE conducts its courses in English so it provides in-depth English instruction to students during their first year of study. I was talking with one of the English teachers about the now famous “blow up” between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy during an Oval Office visit at the White House. I opined that a contributing factor was that Zelenskyy was obliged to speak in English. But the English teacher drew my attention to a different observation. The teacher said, “While Zelenskyy may be unlike Trump in many respects, he and Trump are similar in one major way – their decision-making style. Before he was president, Zelenskyy was a successful businessman in the entertainment industry. Like Trump, Zelenskyy is a transactional deal maker. He is not a diplomat or traditional politician. That was part of the reason he was elected. He was to break down the old structures and install new western ways. So, when the discussion in the Oval Office got heated, and the moment called for a diplomat from either side, there was none in the room.”

The teacher’s interpretation of what happened and why, was preceptive. Both presidents wanted an agreement that day but almost lost it because they could not break out of the approaches that had sustained them up to then.

There are at least two lessons in this story. The first lesson is for senior leaders: they must sense when to involve their trained specialists and experts in order to finalize agreements. The second lesson is that the Ukrainian people are keenly aware not only of their own political realities but also those of others.

President Trump’s push for a ceasefire and, separately, a minerals deal, has made the U.S.-Ukraine relationship bumpy to say the least. American military and other aid were temporarily turned off. The loss was a problem, but Ukrainians have been steeling themselves for this possibility since Trump’s election. They need U.S. help and they want a good relationship with the U.S., but they will not sign up for deals that will not last. The last decade of war with Russia has taught them that doing so just begets more war. The attitude was succinctly captured in February by a Ukrainian military blogger responding to questions from some followers on Telegram:

“Guys, please stop bombarding me with questions about what is happening and what I think.

I don’t think. I do.

I react calmly, because I did not expect anything else from this administration in the United States, and after the elections there I immediately understood what would more or less happen.

If you look carefully even at those whom they appoint, you will notice a tendency to appoint them not on the basis of professional qualities.

I don’t know what the “security guarantees” will be. I don’t really care. At this time the most important guarantee of safety are your friends, relatives and other acquaintances in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Right now, there is a slow but steady process to disarm any resistance and eventually finish off everyone. It was absolutely to be expected.

And when politicians of any level or country declare the “end of the war”, then you should know that this is hypocrisy.

What they call the “end” is a “pause,” and then both sides will begin to prepare for the next phase of this war. And remember while there is a “handful” (in fact a crowd) of thinking people in our country, in various positions, who will tear the throat of any Russian, we’ll be fine, no matter what the fuck happens.

I’m not trying to calm you down, it’s just that you underestimate yourselves, and us, a little, and no one has deprived us of our ability to control our own fate so far. We will survive all our grandfathers.”

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The Ukrainian people have, of course, a long history with Russia. It is a disservice for pundits to dismiss centuries of conflict between the two nations with shallow summaries and punch line epithets. The reality today is that Russia has been waging a brutal war against Ukraine since its invasion of Crimea in 2014.

In the fighting from 2014 to 2022 it is estimated that 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. According to President Zelenskyy, another 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since February 2022 [Kyiv Independent 13 Feb 2025]. For the same period, Russian deaths are a multiple of those numbers. Civilian deaths are an additional category. The overall deaths and casualties, civilian and military, are over a million. It is the largest European land war since WWII

The war threatens not only Ukraine but European security and global stability. Anyone who thinks about the conflict strategically will understand that ending it, in a long-lasting way, is urgently necessary.

Ukrainian soldiers traveling on a bus

The country that has the biggest stake in the outcome, outside Ukraine and Russia, is the United States, whose power is based on the existing global systems of finance and international relations. It is in the United States’ vital interest to solve this conflict in a way that ensures a sovereign and viable Ukraine survives in a lasting peace.

The Trump administration’s approach to negotiating a ceasefire/peace deal in the war has been unconventional. But whether skillfully or luckily, we have arrived at a point where the U.S., Ukraine, and Western European states have a rough consensus on obtaining an unconditional ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.

This is not a peace plan, but it may be all that can be hoped for at the moment. Russia for its part, wants a ceasefire to begin only after the sides sit down to talk about so-called “root causes” of the conflict. The disconnects between sides would seem to be insurmountable, but nevertheless, we are closer to a ceasefire than at any time since 2022.

In my opinion, if a ceasefire cannot be achieved under the present conditions, it is unlikely that it will be achieved for some time. Russia and Ukraine each remain strong enough that they can continue the fight. Their strengths may come from different sources of power, but they are sustainable.

In national security circles there are four recognized instruments of power – diplomacy, Information, military, and economics. But in Ukraine I have discovered a fifth. Culture is an instrument of power here.

War Memorial in Maidan Plaza

Not the propagandistic culture of state television, but the quiet, steady defiance of identity. The renaming of streets and parks to reflect Ukrainian instead of Russian history. The efforts by Russian-speaking Ukrainians to learn the Ukraine language. The separation of Ukraine’s Orthodox Churches from the Russian Patriarchate. Ukraine has historically been “on the edge” between the West and the East. Its name comes from the Slavic word, “edge.” From the Russian perspective, it is the edge of the East. From Ukraine’s perspective it is the edge of the West. In fact, it sits atop the boundary of both. East meets West here. Roman Catholic parishioners pray in Eastern Orthodox-looking cathedrals. Signs are made with a mix of Cyrillic and Latin letters. Western-made automobiles drive past faded Soviet edifices mixed with modern office buildings. These cultural manifestations are not trivial. They are the reasons Ukraine fights, and they are a source of strength. They are tied directly to Ukraine’s first priority in its National Security Strategy:

“1. A person, his life and health, honor and dignity, inviolability and security are the highest social values in Ukraine. The implementation of this norm of the Constitution of Ukraine is the main goal of the state policy of national security.”

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A U.S. President Pursuing Peace

OPINION — It’s gratifying seeing President Donald Trump personally pursuing peace and reconciliation in a world ravaged by war and conflict. His dictum that “we have no permanent enemies” is a powerful statement coming from the leader of the free world. Fortunately, the subject changed from more weapons that can kill more people, to what we must do to stop these wars, killing so many innocent people.

It is amazing what Mr. Trump has accomplished since being sworn in as president on January 20, 2025.

On April 26, terrorists shot 26 civilians in Pahalgam Kashmir and on May 7^th, India retaliated by attacking terrorist bases in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, in addition to sites in Pakistan’s Punjab province. The potential for armed confrontation between two nuclear-armed countries was palpable. Fortunately, Mr. Trump was able to broker a cease fire on May 10^th, before war seemed inevitable.

During Mr. Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia, he announced that the U.S. was lifting sanctions on Syria. He subsequently met with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former Al Qaeda commander and U.S.- designated terrorist. Mr. Trump made it clear to Mr. al-Sharaa that Syria was expected to cooperate with the U.S. on counterterrorism, especially against ISIS. Mr. al-Sharaa was also told that his government would protect our Kurdish partners in Syria, who fought so bravely against ISIS and other terrorist groups.

The timing coincided with the dissolution of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) in Turkey, a militant Kurdish separatist group fighting against the government of Turkey since 1978, seeking an independent Kurdistan. This development had to be pleasing to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

To the surprise of many, the U.S. war with the Houthis in Yemen ended with a ceasefire on May 6, 2025, brokered by Oman. However, the civil war in Yemen continues, with widespread malnutrition.

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Mr. Trump continues to seek an end to the war in Ukraine, an elusive goal. Recent efforts to meet in Turkey for direct peace talks ended abruptly when Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to participate and instead, sent a low-level delegation to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Mr. Trump hasn’t given up on getting a cease fire, noting he plans to speak with Mr. Putin. As the fighting in Ukraine continues, casualties continue to rise, with estimates of about 500,000 deaths and injuries in Russia and in Ukraine. Indeed, the civilian casualties in Ukraine are staggering, with broad devastation to population centers. An immediate cease fire is the only humane option for Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.

The war in Gaza continues, with Israel pursuing and decapitating Hamas, while innocent Palestinians continue to suffer the consequences of collateral deaths and injuries, with widespread food and medical scarcities. Hopefully, we have a cease fire in Gaza and pursuant to the Oslo Accords, a two-state solution is pursued. Given Mr. Trump’s excellent relationship with Israel and its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, hopefully he can convince the government of Israel to end the war in Gaza and the West Bank and in earnest pursue a two-state solution to resolving the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

Pope Leo XIV is the first American to head the Catholic Church. A few days ago, he pledged to “make every effort” for peace and offered the Vatican as a mediator in global conflicts, saying war was “never inevitable.” Pope Leo XIV’s predecessor, Pope Francis, left a legacy of peace, reminding us that we are of one human family and we should love and care for each other, and safeguard our planet for future generations. Hopefully, Pope Leo XIV will help bring peace to a splintered, polarized world.

The global community is fortunate that there are two American leaders pursuing peace for a world in disarray.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times

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Open Source Report for Friday, May 23, 2025

Friday, May 23, 2025. 7:30 AM EST

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here’s a look at today’s headlines, broken down by region of the world.

THE TOP HEADLINES

Friday, May 23, 2025

G7 ministers threaten more sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine

Putin Says Russia Creating Buffer Zone Along Ukrainian Border

France, Saudi Arabia Aim to Disarm Hamas in New Peace Push

Iran warns Israel, US against any attack on its nuclear sites

Russian hackers target Western firms shipping aid to Ukraine, US intelligence says

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Challenges – and Opportunities – of a ‘Golden Dome’ Defense System. President Donald Trump’s proposed $175 billion “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative—inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome—has drawn mixed reactions from security experts. Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld (Ret.), former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the plan “ambitious” and noted the vast geographic and technical challenges in defending the U.S. from hypersonic, cruise, and ballistic missile threats. Bradley Bowman, Senior Director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned that the U.S. lacks sufficient capability to detect cruise missiles and must avoid overpromising what such a system can deliver. Carlton Haelig, a defense fellow at the Center for a New American Security, stressed that no national missile defense has proven impenetrable and questioned long-term feasibility and funding sustainability. All three emphasized that success would require space-based sensors, directed energy systems, industrial scaling, and multi-year federal investment, with Bowman likening it to a “Manhattan Project” in scale and urgency. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Star Wars returns. President Donald Trump has revived plans for a vast U.S. missile defense system dubbed “Golden Dome,” a satellite-based shield he claims could offer near-total protection against enemy attacks. Announced on Tuesday, Trump’s proposal includes an initial $25 billion in funding within his yet-unapproved tax bill, with full costs estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to exceed $500 billion over 20 years. Experts are skeptical of his two-to-three-year timeline and 100% protection claim—intercepting even a small missile salvo could require tens of thousands of satellites. The system responds to growing threats from hypersonic and orbital missiles by Russia and China, both of which are rapidly advancing counter-space weapons. Tensions in orbit are escalating, with incidents of close satellite approaches and potential jamming. America’s surveillance satellites have mimicked some of the aggressive maneuvers it criticizes others for, underscoring how space has become a frontline in great power competition. The Economist

As Netanyahu connects D.C. embassy killings to mounting hostility over Gaza, Israel condemns Europe for 'antisemitic incitement.’ The shooting of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington has intensified Israeli concerns about rising global antisemitism amid the ongoing Gaza war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the attack, linking it to what he described as a growing climate of anti-Israel hostility, fueled by protests and international criticism of Israel’s military actions. Israel’s Foreign Minister blasted European officials for "toxic antisemitic incitement," blaming them for creating a climate of hostility and citing “libels about genocide, crimes against humanity and murdering babies.” A French government spokesperson denounced anti-semitism but called Israel’s accusatory remarks "completely outrageous and completely unjustified." While the D.C. attack is not expected to shift Israel’s military strategy, officials see it as reinforcing their view that the conflict is part of a broader existential battle. Netanyahu remains committed to defeating Hamas, despite mounting international pressure and the high Palestinian death toll, which now exceeds 53,000 according to Gaza health authorities. Reuters Reuters New York Times CBS News

U.S. charges Chicago man with murder in shooting of Israeli Embassy employees. 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez of Chicago, a pro-Palestinian advocate and vocal activist, has been charged with two counts of first-degree murder for the fatal shooting of Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday. He also faces federal charges, including the murder of foreign officials and using a firearm during a crime. Prosecutors are treating the killings as both a hate crime and an act of terrorism, according to interim U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro. Rodriguez allegedly admitted to the shooting at the scene and was captured on surveillance video repeatedly firing at the victims, including following one who tried to escape. A 9mm handgun was recovered, and authorities are now searching Rodriguez's electronic devices and online activity. He was apprehended by museum security shortly after the attack and is believed to have acted alone. Axios Wall Street Journal Associated Press BBC

Trump administration can't yank foreign students' visas, judge says. A federal judge has issued a nationwide injunction preventing the Trump administration from revoking the legal status of foreign students while their lawsuit against the government proceeds. The administration made claims that these students had committed crimes, but Judge Jeffrey S. White noted many had not and criticized the government for targeting students over minor infractions or entrapment cases. He emphasized that due process protections apply to all individuals in the U.S., regardless of immigration status. While the Department of Homeland Security criticized the decision as undermining presidential authority, the judge warned against government efforts to bypass legal regulations. Axios New York Times NBC News

Haiti appeals for regional gang-fighting support, U.S. demands action from OAS. Haiti's gang violence, fueled by U.S.-sourced weapons, has prompted renewed calls for the Organization of American States (OAS) to take a more active role, as a struggling Kenyan-led, U.N.-backed mission in the country faces severe shortages of personnel and funding. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, criticized the OAS for its inaction and called for a regional solution, even while rolling back funding. Washington cannot “continue shouldering such a significant financial burden," said a U.S. official. OAS Secretary-General Luis Almagro admitted the mission needs restructuring. The urgency increased following a brutal gang attack this week in Haiti’s Artibonite region, after men stormed a church and killed 22 people, including an elderly pastor. Gangs control over 85% of Port-au-Prince. Haitian officials have warned that the national police and military are vastly under-resourced and unprepared for urban warfare, appealing to the OAS for more training, equipment, and support. Associated Press Reuters

Trump Team’s ‘Game of Thrones’ on Venezuela Whiplashes Chevron. The Trump administration's Venezuela policy has sparked turmoil following a dramatic reversal over Chevron’s sanctions waiver. A senior official initially said the waiver would be extended to allow Chevron to continue operating in Venezuela, a development tied to a deal for the release of a U.S. Air Force veteran. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly contradicted the decision, reflecting deep internal divisions between hardliners like Rubio and more pragmatic figures such as Special Envoy Richard Grenell. The flip-flop has left investors and observers confused, as competing factions within the administration vie for influence. Rubio, backed by key Florida lawmakers, opposes easing sanctions, while Grenell argues that cooperation with Caracas could benefit U.S. interests, particularly on migration. President Trump has sent mixed signals, approved the deal but aligning publicly with Rubio. The clash underscores broader tensions over foreign policy, political leverage, and internal rivalries. Bloomberg

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

G7 ministers threaten more sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. At a three-day summit in Banff, Canada, that concluded on Thursday, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors reaffirmed their support for Ukraine and threatened increased sanctions on Russia if no progress is made toward a ceasefire. The ministers pledged to keep Russian assets frozen and to encourage private sector investment in Ukraine. However, the summit made little headway on responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which have heightened global economic tensions. Trump’s recent call with Vladimir Putin fueled concerns that the U.S. may scale back its support for Ukraine. European Union economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis called trade talks “difficult” and expressed disappointment over the lack of stronger language on cooperation. Despite this, Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne described the summit as a demonstration of unity at a critical time. Financial Times New York Times

EU Lawmakers Increase Pressure By Targeting Fertilizers From Russia And Belarus. The European Parliament voted 411-100 on Thursday to impose steep duties on Russian and Belarusian nitrogen fertilizer imports, aiming to make them economically non-viable by 2028. The phased tariffs—starting at €40–45 per ton in 2025 and rising to €430 by 2028—are part of the EU’s 17th sanctions package in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Fertilizers are a key dependency the EU now seeks to sever. The bloc also raised tariffs on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products by 50%. The Kremlin dismissed the move, claiming it would hurt EU states more than Russia. The EU plans to diversify fertilizer sources, turning to countries like Algeria and Morocco. Meanwhile, the U.S. has suspended fertilizer tariffs on EU imports to assist. RFE/RL

Analysts say EU membership and seizure of Russia’s money are needed to rebuild Ukraine. As ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine inch forward, experts argue that lasting peace and economic recovery hinge on Ukraine's fast-tracked European Union membership, substantial investment, and the seizure of Russian assets. Ukraine has suffered an estimated $176 billion in infrastructure damage and a 29% GDP loss since Russia’s 2022 invasion, while nearly a fifth of its territory, rich in unexploited minerals, remains occupied. The EU and U.S. have begun investing in Ukraine’s mineral sector, though experts caution that such projects take years to yield returns. Ukraine’s wartime economic successes include rebuilding grain exports and launching a $20 billion defense sector, aided by state-backed insurance and international support. Yet, analysts insist that broader public insurance schemes and the seizure of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets are necessary for a sustainable recovery. Al Jazeera

Ukraine Rebuilds Its Energy Grid With Lessons From the Frontline. Ukraine is transforming its energy grid under fire, decentralizing and diversifying it to withstand relentless Russian attacks that have caused over $93 billion in energy sector damage. Cities like Kharkiv, once reliant on Soviet-era infrastructure, are now rebuilding with smaller, mobile, and renewable-based solutions like gas cogeneration units, solar panels, and modular boilers. These new systems keep critical services running, even amid missile strikes. Nationwide, 504 energy restoration projects totaling $5.3 billion are underway, though most remain underfunded. Renewable energy has overtaken coal as Ukraine’s second-largest power source, and officials aim to build a greener, more resilient grid that aligns with European Union accession goals. Private and public sector investments continue, but larger projects will likely wait until peace. Meanwhile, energy workers risk their lives to keep the lights on. Despite the devastation, Ukraine is creating a model for postwar energy resilience and independence. Bloomberg

Russia says it downs at least 159 Ukrainian drones, fires Iskander missile. Russia claimed it shot down 159 Ukrainian drones across several regions on Thursday, including at least 20 targeting Moscow, prompting intermittent airport closures. Moscow’s mayor said 17 drones were intercepted near the capital alone. Russia also launched an Iskander-M missile strike on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, allegedly destroying U.S.-supplied Patriot missile systems. Ukraine reported damage but did not confirm the weapons used. Meanwhile, Russia said its forces had captured Nova Poltavka in Donetsk, though Ukraine did not confirm the loss. Despite international pressure for peace, including from U.S. President Donald Trump, intense fighting continues with no ceasefire in sight. Reuters New York Times

Former Ukrainian commander says Ukraine cannot restore post-Soviet borders. Former Ukrainian military chief Valery Zaluzhnyi, now ambassador to the UK, said Ukraine should abandon hopes of restoring its 1991 or 2022 borders, according to remarks quoted by RBK Ukraine on Thursday. Speaking at a Kyiv forum, he emphasized that Russia retains enough resources to continue its offensive and that Ukraine’s path forward lies in waging a high-tech war of survival, leveraging limited economic means. Zaluzhnyi, dismissed in 2024 amid tensions with President Volodymyr Zelensky, remains highly popular among Ukrainians. As Western support shifts toward ceasefire negotiations, Ukraine is open to talks but demands a 30-day ceasefire first. Meanwhile, the European Union imposed new sanctions on Russia, and President Vladimir Putin said Russia is preparing a draft memorandum outlining ceasefire principles and timelines. Public messaging from Kyiv has grown more moderate, signaling a potential shift away from reclaiming all territory lost since 2014. Reuters

Russia Douses Trump’s Desire for Pope to Host Ukraine Talks. The Vatican’s offer to host Ukraine-Russia peace talks, endorsed by President Trump and several European leaders, faces hurdles, with the Kremlin showing little interest. Trump suggested Pope Leo XIV host negotiations after Monday’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to yield a breakthrough. However, Russia prefers continuing technical-level talks in Istanbul, citing distrust of the Vatican, tensions with the Roman Catholic Church, and Italy’s obligation to arrest Putin under an International Criminal Court warrant. The Russian Orthodox Church opposes Vatican involvement, viewing it as a rival and biased actor. Italy, Germany, and the U.S. back the Pope’s engagement as a credible diplomatic move. However, Russia’s hardline demands—such as Ukrainian surrender of contested territories—suggest negotiations will remain stalled. The Vatican has a history of mediating international conflicts, but a deal involving Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains distant. Bloomberg

Putin Says Russia Creating Buffer Zone Along Ukrainian Border. On Thursday, during a televised meeting with government officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has begun creating a buffer zone along its border with Ukraine to protect regions like Kursk and Belgorod from Ukrainian strikes. “Our armed forces are now carrying out this task — the work is underway,” Putin said. The move follows Russia’s recapture of the Kursk region in late April, aided by North Korean troops. Putin previously met with military commanders in the region in March and visited troops earlier this week. Bloomberg CNN

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Update for Thursday, May 22. Russian President Vladimir Putin is advancing an informal state ideology rooted in nationalism and opposition to the West, using cultural and military narratives to unify society and justify future conflict. Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin called for enshrining this ideology in the constitution. Russian officials are reviving claims that the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union was illegal. The Kremlin continues to delegitimize Ukraine's leadership and negotiating authority. CNN reported evidence suggesting Russian forces executed Ukrainian POWs in November 2024 under orders from senior commanders. Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev was officially appointed as the Russian Ground Forces Commander, likely to promote attritional warfare tactics across the front.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian troops advanced near Toretsk, while Russian forces gained ground near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

US Wants Clear NATO Plan to Boost Defense Budgets, Whitaker Says. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told Bloomberg Television on Thursday that the alliance must lay out “clear stair steps” to meet a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP, emphasizing that spending should focus on “hard defense capabilities.” Whitaker stressed that this needs to go beyond the 2014 Wales summit’s 2% commitment, especially under pressure from President Donald Trump, who warned that he may skip the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague without a formal agreement. NATO leaders are expected to approve a plan allocating 3.5% of GDP to core defense and 1.5% to defense-related areas by 2032. Bloomberg

Russia cuts key projects in aviation, tech, auto industries as oil revenues decline. Russia is enacting budget cuts across major industrial sectors in response to collapsing oil revenues, with oil prices recently falling below $50 per barrel, about 40% under the level forecast in its national budget. According to a Thursday report by pro-Kremlin outlet Kommersant, the Kremlin is slashing state funding for aviation, automotive, high-tech, shipping, and robotics programs. These reductions reflect the mounting strain on Russia’s economy from lower fossil fuel income, Western sanctions, and rising military spending. Oil and gas revenues—critical to financing the war in Ukraine—accounted for nearly 30% of Russia’s budget in early 2025, according to Bloomberg. Kyiv Independent

Monument to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin in Moscow metro stirs debate. A newly unveiled monument to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin in Moscow’s Taganskaya metro station has sparked sharp debate. The life-size sculpture, a replica of a 1950 original, was presented as part of the metro system’s 90th anniversary celebrations. Supporters say it honors Stalin’s leadership during World War II and industrialization, with some praising his achievements despite acknowledging his controversial legacy. Critics, including the liberal Yabloko party, condemn the monument as a glorification of a tyrant responsible for mass repression and executions during the Great Terror. Historian Alexander Zinoviev noted the parallels between Stalin-era ideology and Russia’s current political climate, including self-isolation and demands for loyalty to leadership. The monument reflects growing tensions in Russian society over how Stalin's legacy should be remembered. Reuters

Merz backs Nord Stream ban to prevent the US and Russia from restarting the gas link. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is backing a proposed European Union ban on the Nord Stream gas pipelines to prevent any efforts by Russia or the U.S. to revive them. The move is part of a broader EU sanctions package targeting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Merz, seeking to avoid reigniting domestic debate over Russian gas, supports adding Nord Stream 2 AG and related firms to the sanctions list. The pipelines, damaged in 2022, once symbolized deep Russia-Germany energy ties. While some in Merz’s coalition and business leaders favor reopening the link amid high energy costs, the chancellor aims to align Germany with EU consensus and block potential reactivation through a unified European front. Financial Times

Germany set to defend NATO neighbors with new brigade in Lithuania. Germany formally established a permanent brigade in Lithuania on Thursday to bolster NATO’s eastern flank amid ongoing threats from Russia. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking in Vilnius, vowed Germany would defend every inch of NATO territory, stating, “Protecting Vilnius is protecting Berlin.” The brigade, headquartered in Rudninkai near Vilnius, will consist of 4,800 troops and 2,000 vehicles by 2027. The move reflects both a response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump for greater European defense investment. Merz pledged to modernize the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional force. Lithuania, viewed as highly vulnerable due to its proximity to Russia and Belarus, will increase defense spending to over 5% of GDP to support the brigade’s infrastructure, including a €1 billion base. Germany’s defense spending has risen to 2.12% of GDP in 2024, up from 1.19% in 2014. NATO has considered the Baltic region especially at risk due to its geographic isolation. Reuters Associated Press France 24

German firm shipped restricted tech to Russia after EU sanctions kicked in. A POLITICO investigation found that German tech firm Kontron exported over €3.5 million in restricted telecom equipment to its Russian subsidiary via Slovenia after EU sanctions took effect in June 2023. The shipments, including dual-use surveillance tech like the SI3000, were defended by Kontron as pre-approved under Slovenian licenses. Critics argue this violates EU rules banning such exports regardless of contract timing. Kontron retains control of the sanctioned Russian entity, Iskra Technologies, and also shipped similar tech to Kazakhstan. Lawmakers and experts called for stricter enforcement, warning that the loopholes undermine sanctions and aid Russia’s war effort. Politico EU

UK to Pay Mauritius £101 Million a Year to Use Military Base. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed a deal on Thursday to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while retaining control of the key Diego Garcia military base. Under the agreement, the UK will pay Mauritius £101 million ($135 million) annually. Diego Garcia is strategically vital for UK-US operations across the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. The deal ends a legal and diplomatic dispute following a 2019 International Court of Justice ruling against UK control. Though celebrated by Mauritius as a decolonization milestone, the deal sparked domestic criticism and a last-minute court challenge from Chagossians, which was dismissed. Bloomberg Reuters

Macron talks tariffs and peace with Xi Jinping. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday to address rising trade tensions and discuss international conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Macron urged Xi not to impose tariffs on French Cognac, which is currently under Chinese investigation, and called for greater market access for French firms. The Cognac probe is widely viewed as retaliation for France's support of EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Macron emphasized the need for a “level playing field” in trade and pledged to collaborate with China to achieve an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” in Ukraine and support a two-state solution for the Middle East. Politico EU

Furious Macron dressed down ministers after botched leak of Muslim Brotherhood report. French President Emmanuel Macron lashed out at ministers during a defense cabinet meeting on Wednesday over the mishandled leak of a sensitive report on the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence in France. The report, which accused the group of advancing a fundamentalist agenda, was leaked to conservative media before its official release. Macron reportedly targeted Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, a rising political star who had openly discussed the report in interviews. The outburst reflects growing tensions within Macron’s minority government, as attention shifts toward the 2027 presidential election. Retailleau is seen as a potential contender, while Macron’s coalition faces mounting instability. Politico EU

EU Nations Mull Options to Rein in Separatist Leader in Bosnia. France and Germany have proposed sanctions to isolate Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, whose push for greater autonomy and possible independence for Republika Srpska has triggered a political crisis. A leaked letter outlines measures including travel bans, suspension of European Union-funded projects, and pressure from international financial institutions. The EU, concerned about regional instability and Dodik’s ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, sees his actions as the most serious challenge to Bosnia’s sovereignty since the 1995 Dayton Accords. Dodik faces criminal charges in Sarajevo but remains defiant, recently attending a Moscow military parade at Putin’s invitation. Bloomberg

A Yemeni man accused of joining the Houthi rebels has been arrested in Germany. German authorities on Thursday arrested a Yemeni man, identified as Hussein H., in Dachau near Munich, on suspicion of joining the Houthi rebel group. Prosecutors allege that he became a member of the group in October 2022, received ideological and military training, and briefly fought in Yemen’s Marib region in early 2023. He is accused of being part of a foreign terrorist organization during his youth. A judge has ordered him held in custody pending possible indictment. The Houthis, backed by Iran, have recently targeted Israel and Red Sea shipping in response to Israel’s war with Hamas. Associated Press

THE MIDDLE EAST

France, Saudi Arabia Aim to Disarm Hamas in New Peace Push. France and Saudi Arabia are advancing a joint diplomatic initiative to disarm Hamas and transform it into a political entity that could participate in future Palestinian governance. The plan, part of preparations for a June United Nations conference in New York, aims to balance Hamas's political inclusion with complete demilitarization. Israel strongly opposes this, demanding Hamas’s complete exclusion post-war and the return of all hostages. French Israeli tensions have grown, with President Emmanuel Macron calling Israel’s Gaza policies “shameful.” Meanwhile, protests in Gaza show growing Palestinian discontent with Hamas rule. Saudi Arabia is in direct contact with Hamas, while France has not confirmed similar outreach. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists Gaza must be free of weapons and governed without Hamas, floating President Donald Trump ideas like voluntary Gazan migration. Analysts say that while the Franco-Saudi plan might sway some countries, only U.S. pressure, potentially from Trump, could move Israel toward accepting Palestinian statehood. Bloomberg

Israeli Airstrike That Killed Top Hamas Leader in Gaza Hit Meeting of Top Militants. An Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis this month killed Mohammed Sinwar, Hamas’s Gaza chief and brother of Yahya Sinwar, during a secret meeting of top militants discussing cease-fire talks. The strike also killed Rafah brigade commander Mohammad Shabana and several others, dealing a major blow to Hamas’s leadership. Sinwar, known as “Shadow” for his secretive nature, was a key figure in Hamas’s revival efforts after Yahya’s death. His burial in a tunnel confirmed Israeli claims, though Hamas has yet to publicly acknowledge his death. The group is now facing a leadership vacuum as it contends with renewed Israeli offensives and internal discontent from war-weary Gazans. Among possible successors is Izz al-Din Haddad, Hamas’s northern Gaza military chief. The precision of the Israeli strike underscored its intelligence capabilities. The deaths of the Sinwars may shift power back to Hamas’s exiled leadership in Doha, which had been sidelined under the brothers’ centralized control. Wall Street Journal

Iran warns Israel, US against any attack on its nuclear sites. Iran warned on Thursday that it would hold the United States legally responsible for any Israeli strike on its nuclear sites, following a CNN report suggesting Israel may be preparing such an attack. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran would view the U.S. as a “participant” in any assault and vowed a decisive response. The warning comes ahead of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Friday in Rome, which remain deadlocked over uranium enrichment. Araqchi rejected demands to halt enrichment entirely, calling them “excessive,” and suggested Iran may adopt “special measures” to safeguard nuclear material. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also threatened a “devastating” response if attacked. Reuters The Guardian Associated Press

Iran threatens to move nuclear material to secret sites to thwart Israeli strike. Iran has threatened to move its nuclear material to undisclosed locations to protect it from a possible Israeli strike, raising fears of a major escalation in the nuclear standoff. In a letter to the UN and IAEA, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that persistent Israeli threats may force Iran to take measures that could hinder international monitoring of its enriched uranium. Undeclared sites would make it much more difficult to ascertain whether or not the Islamic Republic Iran is moving forward with plans to achieve a nuclear weapon. Axios

Iran has several major nuclear program sites, now the subject of negotiations with the US. Iran's nuclear program spans multiple major sites across the country, each playing a distinct role. The Natanz facility, Tehran’s primary uranium enrichment site, is partly underground and has faced repeated acts of sabotage, including the Stuxnet cyberattack. Iran is also expanding underground facilities nearby. The Fordo site, smaller but heavily fortified beneath a mountain, was revealed in 2009, and also houses enrichment centrifuges. The Bushehr power plant, Iran’s only commercial nuclear reactor, was completed with Russian help and uses Russian fuel under UN supervision. The Arak heavy water reactor, capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium, was restructured under the 2015 nuclear deal to limit proliferation risks. Isfahan’s center supports research and houses Chinese reactors, while the Tehran Research Reactor, gifted by the U.S. in 1967, now uses low-enriched uranium. Together, these sites reflect Iran’s broad and advanced nuclear capabilities, which remain central to ongoing negotiations and regional tensions. Associated Press

Israel intercepts two missiles launched from Yemen, military says. The Israeli military said it intercepted two missiles launched from Yemen on Thursday, triggering air raid sirens across the country, including in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank. The Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility, saying they targeted Ben Gurion Airport with a ballistic missile and sent drones toward Tel Aviv. Despite agreeing to a ceasefire with the U.S. to halt attacks on American ships in the Red Sea, the Houthis vowed to continue targeting Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza. In response, Israel has carried out retaliatory strikes in Yemen, including attacks on Sanaa’s airport and Red Sea ports. Reuters

Aid Deliveries Begin to Reach Gazans After Days of Delay. After a two-month Israeli blockade, approximately 90 truckloads of aid have finally entered Gaza, marking the first major delivery of food and supplies amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. The U.N. confirmed that deliveries are reaching warehouses, but aid officials say the amount is insufficient. The blockade, which Israel said was aimed at pressuring Hamas, caused widespread hunger and shut down local bakeries. While Israel demanded tighter controls and a new distribution system, U.N. agencies resisted, citing concerns over neutrality and safety. Aid routes remain dangerous, and overcrowding near distribution sites raises security concerns. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated plans to escalate military action unless Hamas accepts ceasefire terms and aims to place all of Gaza under Israeli security control. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks damaged Al-Awda Hospital in northern Gaza, destroying medical supplies and halting operations. The situation remains dire, with international pressure mounting for sustained aid access. New York Times

Palestinian paramedic who survived deadly Israeli attack on aid workers will help win justice, says aid chief. Palestinian Red Crescent paramedic Assad Al-Nassasrah, who survived a deadly shooting in Gaza on March 23 that killed 15 aid workers, and was detained until April 29, will be integral in pursuing justice through international courts and the U.N. Al-Nassasrah reportedly survived by pleading for his life in Hebrew, telling Israeli soldiers his mother was an Israeli citizen. Red Crescent President Younis Al-Khatib said Al-Nassasrah could be key to challenging Israeli accounts of the incident. Israel initially claimed its troops had targeted militants who were using Red Crescent vehicles “suspiciously,” but video evidence revealed that the ambulances were clearly marked, and medics were uniformed. A subsequent Israeli military review cited "professional failures" and led to the dismissal of a field commander. A criminal investigation is ongoing. The Red Crescent asserts that the aid workers, eight of which were Red Crescent staff, were deliberately targeted. The international community should “provide justice to those killed," said Al-Khatib. "We don't train our people to go and die." Reuters

US and regional countries team up to resolve the issue of IS prisoners in Syria. The U.S., Turkey, Syria, and Iraq have formed a working group to address the fate of thousands of Islamic State (IS) prisoners held in northeast Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on May 22. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) currently oversee these camps, including Al-Hol, which houses many women and children linked to IS. Erdogan stressed that most detainees are Syrian and Iraqi nationals and called on both governments to take responsibility. The move follows a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, during which Trump urged Damascus to assume control of the estimated 9,000 prisoners. It’s expected that Syria will eventually take over the camps, potentially easing integration of Kurdish forces, especially as the PKK recently agreed to disband. Separately, Ankara will triple its natural gas exports to Syria, aiming to supply cities like Aleppo and Homs with electricity. Turkish officials also pledged support for Syria’s energy development and post-war reconstruction Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

U.S. Considers Withdrawing Thousands of Troops from South Korea. The Trump administration is considering withdrawing approximately 4,500 U.S. troops from South Korea, potentially relocating them to Guam or elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific, as part of an informal policy review on North Korea. Though the proposal hasn't reached President Trump's desk, it has raised concern among allies who view the U.S. military presence in South Korea as crucial to regional stability and deterrence against North Korea and China. Since his first term, Trump has considered changing the U.S. footprint in South Korea, where there are about 28,500 troops. Senior U.S. commanders, including Gen. Xavier Brunson and Adm. Samuel Paparo, warned that a drawdown would weaken U.S. readiness and deterrence. Officials like Elbridge Colby, , the undersecretary of defense for policy, support shifting more defense responsibility to South Korea to free up U.S. forces to counter China. Despite these internal debates, a final decision may hinge on broader geopolitical developments, including the war in Ukraine and evolving U.S. global military commitments. Wall Street Journal

Guam Defense System Facing Delays, Planning Problems, GAO Says. The Pentagon's efforts to establish a missile defense system in Guam are facing delays due to organizational shortcomings, according to a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The GAO warns that the lack of a clear strategy for transitioning control from the Missile Defense Agency to military services, as well as undefined staffing plans and deployment schedules, threatens the project's timeline. While the technical development is progressing — with a successful missile intercept in December — the report highlights concern about insufficient planning for Army involvement and infrastructure. The system, intended to provide 360-degree protection against various missile threats, is scheduled for phased deployment from 2027 to 2032 across 16 sites on the island. The GAO urges the Pentagon to establish a detailed operational transfer plan, define Army roles, and clarify personnel needs to avoid further delays. The Defense Department has agreed with these recommendations. Bloomberg

In Trump Era, Taiwan Defense Chief Says U.S. Still Is a Check on China. In a wide-ranging interview, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo expressed confidence that the U.S.—even under the Trump administration—remains a key deterrent against Chinese aggression. While acknowledging President Trump's pressure for Taiwan to boost defense spending and his critical rhetoric, Koo said both countries share an interest in Indo-Pacific security. Koo assessed the threat level from China as elevated but not imminent. Taiwan plans to increase defense spending above 3% of GDP but faces delays in receiving U.S. weapons due to industrial bottlenecks. Critics argue Taiwan’s modernization is too slow. Koo highlighted efforts to shift from outdated training to realistic drills and innovation. New York Times

Taiwan’s Military Plans New Drone Units in Preparation for Potential China Invasion. Taiwan is ramping up its military modernization by establishing its first army drone units and introducing sea drones into its navy, as part of a broader shift toward asymmetric warfare aimed at deterring a potential Chinese invasion. Defense Minister Wellington Koo emphasized the goal of making China reconsider any aggressive moves by raising the cost of military action. Inspired by Ukraine’s success with drone warfare, Taiwan plans to acquire over 3,200 domestically produced drones over five years, aiming to reduce dependence on Chinese-made components. The U.S. is supporting this shift by encouraging local production and sharing relevant technologies. Taiwan is also adding units to operate U.S.-made HIMARS rocket systems to boost precision-strike capability. President Lai Ching-te has maintained a more diplomatic tone recently, calling for peace while continuing to reinforce Taiwan's defenses. Analysts see these efforts as essential for offsetting China’s superior military strength through agility, innovation, and international support. Wall Street Journal

Taiwan Struggles to Build a Drone Defense Without Its Tech Giants. Taiwan is urgently building up its drone defense capabilities amid rising tensions with China, but its efforts are constrained by limited industry scale and a lack of participation from major tech firms like TSMC and Foxconn. With only about 1,000 military drones currently reserved, Taiwan lags far behind China’s vast arsenal and is relying on startups such as Coretronic to close the gap. The government aims to produce 180,000 civilian drones annually by 2028 and convert them into combat drones if war breaks out. Defense officials emphasize drones' strategic importance, especially given Taiwan’s declining birthrate and the growing prominence of unmanned systems in modern warfare, as seen in Ukraine. The military is establishing drone units and replacing some traditional systems with UAVs. However, Taiwanese drone manufacturers face high costs and limited access to domestic chipmaking resources, which hampers growth. Experts warn Taiwan must accelerate efforts significantly to deter or withstand a potential Chinese invasion. Bloomberg

Guess who India, Pakistan and Iran are all wooing? The Taliban. Despite lacking formal recognition, the Taliban has intensified diplomatic outreach in recent weeks, with acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi meeting officials from Pakistan, India, Iran, and China. This flurry of engagement reflects regional powers' pragmatic shift toward dealing with the Taliban as the de facto authority in Afghanistan. India, which long opposed the Taliban, now sees engagement as necessary to maintain regional influence and counter Pakistan. Pakistan, once a key backer, now faces strained ties due to cross-border militant activity and refugee tensions, prompting tactical diplomacy. Iran seeks cooperation on border security, trade, and ISIS containment despite historic hostility. All three nations are managing complex interests, ranging from counterterrorism and border stability to economic ties, without offering formal recognition. These engagements underscore the Taliban’s growing diplomatic relevance and the region’s evolving strategic calculations. Analysts view the overtures as driven more by security and economic pragmatism than ideological alignment or formal diplomatic endorsement. Al Jazeera

Manila says Chinese coast guard sprayed water cannon on Philippine research vessel. Manila blasted the Chinese coast guard on Thursday for reportedly using a water cannon to fire at one of two Philippine fishing vessels that were carrying out marine research by collecting sand samples in the South China Sea, a region that has transformed into a hotspot for tensions and territorial disputes. According to the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources in Manila, the incident occurred on Wednesday, close to one of three sandbars called Sandy Cay. One of the fishing boats was damaged, and Philippine officials said the lives of the crew were endangered by China’s “aggressive interference, dangerous maneuvers, and illegal acts.” The Chinese coast guard responded, accusing the Philippine vessel of “dangerously” approaching its ship, causing the collision, and “illegally intruded.” Associated Press Al Jazeera

Europe-Japan Fighter Jet Races Against China’s Military Progress. Brig. Gen. Edoardo de Santo of the Italian aerospace firm Leonardo SpA has defended the significant investment in the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), a joint UK-Japan-Italy project developing a sixth-generation stealth fighter, as essential for countering future threats, particularly from China. While current weapons can manage immediate risks like potential Russian aggression, de Santo stressed the importance of staying ahead of evolving threats. The GCAP fighter, expected to enter service by 2035, aims to surpass current fifth-generation jets like the F-35 in stealth, targeting, and coordination with drones and other systems. The project is still in its early design phase, with technology development posing major challenges. The UK has committed £14 billion, and additional funding may come from partners like Saudi Arabia. The program could also expand to include new partners and is targeting export markets such as Australia and India. The new jet is set to replace both the UK’s Eurofighter Typhoon and Japan’s F-2 fighters, with potential civilian applications for its advanced technologies. Bloomberg

How China Factors Into the Conflict Between India and Pakistan. The recent conflict between India and Pakistan in Kashmir has reignited geopolitical tensions in South Asia, with China’s influence carrying great weight despite having no direct involvement. China maintains a strong military and economic alliance with Pakistan, including arms sales and support for defense infrastructure. Unverified Indian reports claim Beijing aided Pakistan with radar, air defense, and satellite capabilities during the clashes. Meanwhile, the Asian giant publicly called for peace and offered to mediate. China and Pakistan share a longstanding "ironclad" alliance rooted in mutual distrust of India, strengthened through arms deals and infrastructure projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Islamabad recently claimed to have used Chinese J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles in combat—potentially marking the first such use of these weapons. China’s relationship with India remains complex. The two countries have a history of border disputes and continue to compete strategically. However, economic interdependence has driven recent diplomatic thawing. Trade between the two nations reached nearly $140 billion last year, despite lingering restrictions and strategic tensions. Bloomberg

Modi says Pakistan will not get water from Indian-controlled rivers. Tensions between India and Pakistan, already surging in the wake of recent clashes, escalated further on Thursday when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reasserted that Pakistan would no longer receive water from rivers under India’s control, a move that challenges the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty brokered by the World Bank in 1960. Modi declared that Pakistan must “pay a heavy price” for terrorist attacks. “Pakistan's army will pay it. Pakistan's economy will pay it,” he said. Pakistani Attorney General Mansoor Usman Awan reaffirmed Islamabad’s commitment to the treaty, warning that any unilateral Indian actions would be risky and unlawful. He acknowledged India had raised concerns about the treaty due to its growing population and energy demands, but insisted any revisions must occur within the treaty framework. Both countries have intensified rhetoric and suspended trade and visa services. The dispute marks a new low in the historically fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed nations. Reuters

Kim Jong Un’s New Warship Capsizes at Launch Due to ‘Absolute Carelessness.’ North Korea’s naval modernization efforts suffered a major setback on Wednesday when a new 5,000-ton destroyer capsized during its launch at a shipyard in Chongjin. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who attended the event, harshly criticized officials for “absolute carelessness” and “unscientific empiricism,” calling the mishap a “criminal act.” The ship, one of Kim’s prized military projects, failed to launch properly, causing its hull to crush and its bow to become stranded. South Korean satellite imagery confirmed the vessel was lying on its side in the water. The destroyer was part of Kim’s broader push to modernize the country’s Soviet-era fleet and develop sea-based military capabilities to complement North Korea’s growing land-based arsenal. Despite severe economic and humanitarian challenges, Kim has prioritized military advances to project strength. Officials involved were reprimanded, and Kim vowed a recovery effort by June, lamenting that the accident “collapsed the state’s dignity.” Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

AFRICA

Trump's false claims exasperate South Africans. South Africans reacted with frustration and disbelief after President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Wednesday meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump was dominated by Trump’s false claims of a “white genocide” in South Africa. Trump focused almost entirely on alleged violence against white farmers, playing videos and citing articles, despite data disproving such claims. Many South Africans questioned the value of Ramaphosa’s visit, with some saying it was a pointless exercise to defend against widely discredited conspiracy theories. Trade unionist Sobelo Motha called the trip unnecessary, while journalist Rebecca Davis noted Ramaphosa at least avoided being publicly humiliated like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Though Ramaphosa maintained composure, critics felt he gained little. The foreign ministry defended the need for engagement, while others lamented how fringe white victimhood narratives—fueled by far-right groups and embraced by figures like Elon Musk—had shaped the meeting. White South Africans themselves said crime affects all groups, and Trump’s focus was out of context. Reuters

Trump's image of dead 'white farmers' came from Reuters footage in Congo, not South Africa. During Wednesday’s Oval Office meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, U.S. President Donald Trump falsely claimed that a Reuters image showing body bags was evidence of white South Africans being killed. The image, however, was a screenshot from Reuters video footage taken in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, during a February 2025 mass burial after an M23 rebel assault. The footage was filmed by Reuters journalist Djaffar Al Katanty, who said it was shocking to see Trump misrepresent his work. The article Trump cited was from American Thinker, which made no explicit claim about the image’s location. Editor Andrea Widburg acknowledged Trump’s misidentification. Trump cited the image to support a long-debunked conspiracy theory about genocide against white South Africans—a claim South Africa denies. The White House did not comment. Ramaphosa was in Washington to repair U.S.-South Africa relations, strained by Trump’s criticisms of South African land laws and governance. Reuters

U.S. set to slap sanctions on Sudan after revelation that government used chemical weapons. The U.S. has announced that it will impose sanctions on Sudan, set to start around June 6, after determining that the Sudanese government used chemical weapons during its conflict with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in 2024. The sanctions will include restrictions on U.S. exports and credit access. The chemical weapons, reportedly chlorine gas, were used in remote areas on at least two occasions. Chlorine gas can cause severe respiratory pain, tissue damage, and death. Sudan disputes Washington’s claims, suggesting the sanctions are politically motivated an tied to tensions over U.S. congressional scrutiny of the UAE, which Khartoum accuses of aiding the RSF. The UAE has repeatedly denied involvement. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023, has caused massive humanitarian devastation, with millions displaced and tens of thousands killed. The U.S. has also sanctioned both army and RSF leaders, accusing the paramilitary and allied groups of committing genocide. Reuters CNN Le Monde Al Jazeera

Cholera spikes in Khartoum after drone attacks cut power, water. Over the past three weeks, more than 2,300 cholera cases and at least 51 deaths have been reported in Sudan, with 90% of cases occurring in Khartoum and nearby areas. The outbreak has been linked to drone attacks, which have disabled power and water infrastructure and severely strained public health services. The ongoing war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), now over two years old, has devastated healthcare systems and fueled the spread of diseases like cholera, malaria, and dengue. The army blames the RSF for attacks on critical infrastructure, while ground fighting continues in the Kordofan and Darfur regions. Reuters

Burkina Faso’s military leaders turn to ‘Africa’s Che Guevara’ to rally struggling country.Burkina Faso's military rulers are invoking the legacy of Thomas Sankara, the country’s former Marxist leader known as “Africa’s Che Guevara,” to inspire national unity amid a deepening security crisis. A new mausoleum in Ouagadougou honors Sankara’s anti-imperialist and pan-African ideals. Current leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore, who took power in a 2022 coup, has embraced Sankara’s image, adopting revolutionary rhetoric and symbolism. Despite these efforts, Burkina Faso remains highly unstable. Extremist violence has displaced over 2 million people, with much of the country outside government control. Citizens face harsh restrictions, censorship, and violence from both jihadi groups and state forces. While the capital sees celebrations of Sankara’s legacy, much of the country endures insecurity, economic hardship, and fear—highlighting a stark divide in everyday life across the nation. Associated Press

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Has Starlink already won the new space race? Elon Musk’s Starlink has taken a commanding lead in the new space race, dominating low Earth orbit (LEO) with over 7,300 active satellites and serving 5 million customers in 125 countries. SpaceX’s vertical integration, frequent launches, and consumer-focused pricing have made Starlink the most advanced and expansive satellite broadband network. Amazon’s Project Kuiper, backed by Jeff Bezos, has finally entered the fray with its first operational satellites launched in April 2025, aiming for global service by 2029. Despite Kuiper’s promise—supported by Amazon’s global reach and cloud infrastructure—it faces production delays, new unproven rockets, and a tight Federal Communications Commission deadline. Other competitors like China’s SpaceSail and Guowang, Europe’s IRIS², and Canada’s Telesat are emerging, but all trail far behind Starlink in scale. Analysts expect a looming price war between Musk’s aggressive, less profit-driven approach and Amazon’s more structured business model. The outcome could reshape global connectivity and widen geo-political divides in space infrastructure. Financial Times

OpenAI, UAE to build massive AI center in Abu Dhabi. OpenAI has announced a major partnership with the United Arab Emirates to build Stargate UAE, a massive AI data center in Abu Dhabi. This initiative is part of OpenAI’s broader OpenAI for Countries strategy and marks the UAE as the first nation to secure ChatGPT Plus subscriptions for its entire population. The project includes a one-gigawatt AI computing cluster, with 200 megawatts set to go live in 2026. Backed by the U.S., the deal is part of a $20 billion investment effort led by Emirati AI firm G42 and includes partners like Oracle, Nvidia, Cisco, and SoftBank. For every dollar invested in Abu Dhabi and Stargate UAE, the Gulf state will match it with investment in American AI infrastructure. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman sees the project as a way to democratize AI breakthroughs globally, while U.S. officials view it as a strategic move to counter China’s tech influence. More international partnerships are expected to follow. Axios

Belgium bugged Anderlecht football stadium to spy on Huawei MEP lobbying. Belgian authorities bugged a luxury box at RSC Anderlecht football stadium used by Huawei to host European Parliament members, as part of a broader corruption probe into the Chinese tech giant’s lobbying in the EU. The surveillance, which also included tapping a Huawei lobbyist’s car, contributed to prosecutors requesting the lifting of immunity for several MEPs. Huawei reportedly used the box, acquired for €50,000, to curry favor with lawmakers through gifts, event invitations, and networking. Authorities are investigating whether these efforts were linked to securing political support, including an open letter signed by eight MEPs expressing support of the firm’s interests. Police have already charged several individuals and raided over 20 locations across Belgium and Portugal. Some MEPs have admitted to attending matches, but denied knowing Huawei was behind the invitations. No MEPs have been charged, but Transparency International and other critics highlight the EU Parliament’s weak ethics rules, noting the blurry line between lobbying and corruption. Huawei has not commented. Politico EU

Russian hackers target Western firms shipping aid to Ukraine, US intelligence says. Russian military intelligence hackers tied to the notorious group "Fancy Bear" have targeted Western technology and logistics companies involved in shipping aid to Ukraine, according to a new report from the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA). The cyber campaign, which began in 2022, aimed to gather intelligence on the types and movements of assistance entering Ukraine by breaching defense, transportation, and logistics systems across several countries, including the U.S. As part of the operation, the hackers attempted to access over 10,000 internet-connected cameras—both private and public—near key transport hubs and border crossings in Ukraine, Romania, Poland, and other parts of Eastern and Central Europe. The NSA, along with the FBI and allied agencies, warned that Russia is likely to continue such espionage efforts and urged companies managing aid logistics to stay alert. Officials did not reveal how successful the hackers were or how long they operated undetected. Associated Press

Russian national accused of ransomware attacks indicted by DOJ. The U.S. Department of Justice has unsealed charges against Rustam Rafailevich Gallyamov, a 48-year-old Russian national accused of leading a cybercriminal group behind the Qakbot malware, which infected thousands of computers over more than a decade. Qakbot enabled further malware infections, ransomware attacks, and the creation of botnets. The DOJ also seeks to seize over $24 million in cryptocurrency and funds linked to the operation. Despite a global law enforcement effort that disrupted Qakbot infrastructure in 2023, Gallyamov allegedly continued his activities into 2025. Separately, federal prosecutors charged 16 individuals connected to DanaBot, a malware strain active since 2018 and responsible for over $50 million in damages and 300,000 infections globally. These charges are part of Operation Endgame, a coordinated international effort to dismantle major cybercrime networks. DanaBot, originally designed to steal banking credentials, evolved into a broader tool for information theft and remote access, affecting thousands of victims daily across more than 40 countries. Reuters CNN The Record U.S. Department of Justice The Hacker News

Chinese-speaking hackers targeting US municipalities with Cityworks bug. Cybersecurity experts at Cisco Talos say Chinese-speaking hackers have been exploiting a critical vulnerability, CVE-2025-0994, in Trimble Cityworks—a software widely used by U.S. local governments to manage infrastructure assets. The flaw, publicly known since February, is being actively used to infiltrate systems handling utilities, permits, and operations. Cisco Talos confirmed that hackers conducted reconnaissance and deployed web shells and custom malware, some built using Chinese-language tools like MaLoader. The malware’s language and design suggest the attackers are Chinese-speaking, and their tactics indicate a clear focus on utilities management systems. Once inside, the hackers prepared sensitive data for exfiltration. Federal agencies were ordered to patch the vulnerability by February 28, but the attacks appear to have begun in January. Trimble, the software’s developer, acknowledged unauthorized access attempts and worked with CISA and Symantec to issue an advisory. The Record

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Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief

Dead Drop: May 23

IN THIS WEEK’S DEAD DROP RUMINT FILE: The NSA may have a new Deputy Director very soon and that could be followed by a new NSA director being named with only one hat as the debate over splitting NSA from Cyber Command continues on the Hill; CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis could be on the move as well; Why doesn’t the president like the President’s Daily Brief; West Point honors former USSOCOM Commander General Joe Votel (Ret.); and if you think foreign espionage is bad in the U.S., you should see what’s happening in Brazil.

NSA JOB (CYBER)SECURITY: The NSA may soon have a new Deputy Director. And when we say soon, we mean like – maybe today. According to multiple sources, the rumored pick for the job is Joseph Francescan, who is currently serving as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Combatting Terrorism. A number of other names have been circulating through the rumor mill for consideration and as we know, nothing is done til it’s done and then it could always be undone, but we’re thinking Francescan may go for the much shorter title given his roots at NSA dating back to 2008, when he worked there as a civilian. Francescan has spent the bulk of his career focused on the counterterrorism mission. Whoever eventually accepts the role will be replacing Wendy Noble, who was abruptly dismissed along with NSA Director General Timothy Haugh last month, no reason given. Both Noble and Haugh are deeply experienced. The Dead Drop isn’t in the business of offering career advice but Francescan, or whoever does land the job may want to consider negotiating some job security. Specifically, when it comes to just who gets to make the decision about when he/she can no longer serve in the role, given that a far-right activist who didn’t think that Haugh or Noble were loyal enough to the president claimed that they were “referred for firing”.

A VERY CONSEQUENTIAL DIVIDE: In last week’s Dead Drop, we also mentioned reports that the administration is considering ending the dual-hatted relationship of NSA and Cyber Command – something that has been rumored and hotly debated for years. This time around, Congressman Don Bacon, (R, NE) who serves on the House Armed Services Committee (and is a retired Air Force brigadier general) sent a message to the administration that a lot of Hill denizens oppose the notion. “I’ve spoken to my colleagues on this panel and our friends in the Senate, and on a bipartisan and bicameral basis, the Armed Services Committees are strongly opposed to ending the dual-hatted relationship. I want to take this opportunity to make very clear to the Department’s leadership that if they believe they have allies on this issue who sit on the Pentagon’s congressional oversight panels, they do not.” Some press accounts suggest that the administration is considering making the head of NSA a civilian and giving the stand-alone Cyber Command a 3-star leader.

NEW DEPUTY DIRECTOR FOR SPY OPS: One move that seems to have gone beyond the rumor stage was reported by Financial Times saying that the CIA “tapped a veteran clandestine case officer who currently serves as a station chief in the Middle East to run its covert operations around the world.” The new person (whose name is being withheld by the media since he is under cover) is reportedly pretty well-respected around the Agency. Unrelated, we are still tracking rumors that current CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis may be a move within the IC in the near future, but we have no further intel on that at the moment. We hear there’s an open job at NSA.

THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF - NO ASSEMBLY REQUIRED: Last week, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said she was moving the assembly of the President’s Daily Brief away from the CIA to ODNI. The Cipher Brief kinda wanted to know more about what that might mean, so it tapped Beth Sanner, former Deputy Director of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, who served as President Trump’s briefer during his first Trump administration. Sanner broke down what it was like to brief the president, telling The Cipher Brief, “Unlike anyone else that goes to see the president, you know that you are the person who needs to be delivering that uncomfortable truth or that difficult fact that didn’t actually go that way. I called myself the skunk at the garden party and joked about it, because it’s really the only way you can do it. Everybody else is incentivized to please. I was incentivized to say what other people didn’t want to say.” Maybe that’s why Politico reports that President Trump has only received the brief 12 times in his second administration, though the White House says the president is “constantly apprised of classified briefings”.

WHAT AN HONOR: Cipher Brief Expert and the former Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command General Joe Votel (Ret.) and a short-list of other notables were honored this week as 2025 Distinguished Graduates by West Point. Admiral Bill McRaven seemed to agree with the Votel choice saying, “If you are looking for a West Point graduate who has exemplified the Army values, showed tremendous leadership, fought again the enemies of the nation, and upheld the highest tradition of the U.S. military, you could find no better candidate than General Joe Votel. What you might not know about the honoree is that he also loves to read (like us) and recently shared thoughts on one his favorite books on leadership with Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly on The Cover Stories Podcast.

“I WILL NOT LIE OR LEAK”: The Wall Street Journal is reporting on what seems like an elevated number of polygraph investigations being ordered in organizations that report to Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. Polygraphs (widely and inaccurately called “lie detectors”) have long been used within some U.S. intelligence agencies to detect deceit for decades. But now the focus by DHS and elsewhere seems not just to be on ferreting out spies – but mostly on finding people who are providing information to the news media without authorization. “Under Secretary Noem’s leadership, DHS is unapologetic about its efforts to root out leakers that undermine national security,” Tricia McLaughlin, spokeswoman for DHS was quoted as saying. “We are agnostic about your standing, tenure, political appointment, or status as a career civil servant—we will track down leakers and prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law.” As pretty much anyone who has ever held a senior intelligence role will tell you, plugging those leaks is a tough task. If only there were a “leak detector”.

BRAZIL’S ESPIONAGE ASSEMBLY LINE: The New York Times is out with a pretty detailed investigative report unraveling just how it says Russia has turned Brazil into a spy factory. It seems the country known for rainforests, carnivals and soccer has also been home to an operation by Russia’s intelligence services to train and launch “illegals” - spies who spend years honing their ability to blend in, in order to facilitate deep-cover spy operations. The goal here though, according to the report, “was not to spy on Brazil, but to become Brazilian”, effectively turning the country into “an assembly line for deep-cover operations.”

TURKEY’S FAULTY CELL TOWERS: Turkish Intelligence reported this month that it caught suspects “red-handed” as part of a sophisticated Chinese espionage operation that used fake cell phone towers to collect intelligence on targets. Chinese intelligence officers allegedly set up shell companies to help facilitate the operation that they also self-funded by hacking into the bank accounts of ordinary citizens and funneling that money to support the program. Who says spies aren’t entrepreneurial?

SWEDEN’S MYSTERIOUS DIPLOMAT: Who knew when Sweden joined NATO that among the things it would bring to the alliance would be a lot of stories about potential security violations and espionage? Last week’s Dead Drop has a couple items about such stirrings in Stockholm. And this week, we’re hearing (via Reuters) about a Swedish diplomat who had been questioned by authorities on suspicion of espionage, and then suddenly died. And here is an interesting twist – the Swedish SAPO security service confirmed that they detained the man and held him for three days for questioning before releasing him. But they declined to identify him. The diplomat’s lawyer and the Swedish foreign ministry confirmed the man’s passing – but again, without IDing him. Police told local media that “there is no suspicion that a crime has been committed.” The BBC quoted former foreign minister Carl Bildt describing the mystery man as a “tragically deceased ambassador.”

GIVE US MORE DIPLOMAT X4: Diplomacy may not be having a banner year around the globe in places like Ukraine or the Middle East – but it is doing well in the world of entertainment. Reports are in that the popular Netflix series “The Diplomat” has been renewed for a fourth season before season three even premieres. The way things work in the streaming business, no one knows (or will say) when the third season for the show (that stars Keri Russell, Rufus Swell and Allison Janney) will start — but we’re guessing soon. If you haven’t seen season two yet – spoiler alert – you might want to skip the next couple sentences. Netflix, in describing the upcoming season, says “Ambassador Kate Wyler (Russell) lives the particular nightmare that is getting what you want. She just accused Vice President Grace Penn (Janney) of hatching a terrorist plot and admitted she’s after the VP job. But now the President is dead and Kate’s husband Hal (Sewell) may have inadvertently killed him.” Don’t you hate it when that happens?

CRUISE FEELS THE NEED: Tom Cruise has told reporters that on the heels of the release of his most recent (and allegedly last) Mission Impossible flick, he is thinking about potential angles for a third Top Gun film. As Cruise himself noted, it took about 35 years to do the second “Top Gun: Maverick.” At that rate – Cruise would be in his late 90s when the next one comes out – and we’re betting he’d still be doing his own stunts. (Planning to see Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning this weekend? Drop us a note and tell us what you think at thedeaddrop@thecipherbrief.com)

ON THE MOVE: Tracking even more movements in the national security community:

Matt Hartman, who has served as Deputy Executive Assistant Director for Cybersecurity at CISA, is leaving the Agency at the end of the month.

Marci McCarthy has been named Director of Public Affairs at CISA.

POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting / weird stuff we discovered:

A VERY RUSSIAN ENDING: Some stories we come across sound too “on-the-nose.” Too stereotypical to be real – but we guess there is a reason that stereotypes exist. Take this story: Vladimir Nedoshivin, a retired 74-year-old engineer who was one of the designers of Russia’s Islander missile that has been creating so much havoc in Ukraine, died recently. But no – there is no evidence that his death was the work of Kyiv. Instead – according to multiple press accounts, Nedoshivin was not a particularly pleasant fellow and reports suggest that he struggled with alcohol abuse in his golden years. We’ve uncovered in source material that recently the ex-engineer was spotted by a fellow resident relieving himself in his apartment building’s stairwell. The much younger person (who was ironically identified as a plumber) reportedly threw Nedoshivin down the stairs – and he died a few days later. Guess there are no windows in stairwells.

ARMY UNIT SAYS ‘HECK NO’ TO CURSING: The 43rd Adjutant Battalion at Fort Leonard Wood recently issued a directive telling personnel there to knock off the G.D. cussing. Starting this darn minute, the place has been declared a “profanity free campus.” Oh, and rude gestures are banned too. The good news is that the policy apparently only applies “while operating in official capacities during duty hours.” The directive even lays out a four-strike policy where soldiers get counseled on the first violation, receive a written reprimand on the second, get punished on the third and on the fourth infraction – are subject to “separation for misconduct based on a pattern of behavior.” We swear this is true.

SEND US SOME NEWS TIPS, GOSH DARN IT. TheDeadDrop@theCipherBrief.com

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

The President's Daily Brief: No Assembly Required?

EXPERT INTERVIEW — It’s a document that rarely makes news, for obvious reasons: the whole point of the President‘s Daily Brief (PDB) – a summary of intelligence and analysis about national security threats and the world’s hot zones – is that it’s put together with classified intelligence and information. Lately, however, the PDB has made headlines involving how it's prepared - and how it's consumed.

Last week, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said she was moving the assembly of the PDB away from the Central Intelligence Agency, which has traditionally been tasked with doing the work, to her own department. That may seem like a minor bureaucratic change, but it raised eyebrows among some in the intelligence community who have participated in the process.

They noted that the infrastructure involved in producing the briefing is housed in the CIA, and that moving it could prove problematic. Beth Sanner, a Cipher Brief expert former Deputy Director of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, who oversaw the PDB during the first Trump administration, said it would be “a huge mistake.”

“It would create inefficiencies and risk miscommunication and mistakes,” Sanner told The New York Times.

Gabbard’s office said the move was ordered to offer the president more “timely and actionable” intelligence.

Also last week, Politico published a report saying that President Trump – who is known to prefer verbal rather than written presentations of intelligence, has all but ceased to receive the PDB in any fashion. The report said that in the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, he had received the PDB only 12 times.

The White House responded to the Politico report by saying that the president gets everything he needs from his top national security aides – whose leaders also receive presentations of the PDB.

“The president is constantly apprised of classified briefings and is regularly in touch with his national security team,” said Davis Ingle, a White House spokesperson. “The entire intelligence community actively informs President Trump in real time about critical national security developments.”

Intelligence community veterans were less charitable.

“The point of having an $80 billion intelligence service is to inform the president to avert a strategic surprise,” a former CIA analyst told Politico.

How much do these things matter?

The Cipher Brief reached out this week to Sanner, the PDB presenter for President Trump during his first term. She spoke about the recent PDB news with Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

THE CONTEXT

The President's Daily Brief (PDB) was formally introduced in 1964 for President Lyndon B. Johnson. A prototype of the PDB, called the “President’s Intelligence Check List,” was produced in 1961 for President John F. Kennedy.
The PDB is coordinated by the Office of the Director of Naval Intelligence (ODNI) and draws on all-source intelligence from the CIA, NSA, FBI and other parts of the intelligence community (IC). It is intended to provide intelligence to the president. It is also used to inform other senior national security officials, including the vice president, the national security advisor, and the secretaries of State and Defense.
Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, is moving the assembly of the PDB from CIA headquarters to the ODNI. Officials say the move aims to shore up the role of the ODNI amid vows by the Trump administration to “overhaul” the IC. CIA officers write much of the analysis that goes into the PDB.
Politico reports that between Inauguration Day and early May, President Trump sat in on only 12 presentations of the PDB by intelligence officials. President Trump reportedly met with intelligence officials to hear the PDB presentation more often – though still less regularly than his predecessors – during his first term.

The Cipher Brief: Can you give us a 101 explanation of the PDB. What is it and why does it exist?

Sanner: It's basically a classified newspaper or newsletter. It's not as long as a newspaper. Most of the [intelligence] community at one point contributes in some way, but most of it right now is written by CIA analysts.

It goes out every day; it's delivered by briefers to the top couple of dozen senior national security officials in the government, from the war fighters to economic policy makers to the regular foreign policy people you would expect, at the secretary and deputy secretary level. But it's prepared with the president in mind. It's his book.

Each president has a very different style with consuming the PDB.

I was the head of the PDB for the ODNI for two years, and then I became the president's briefer when I became deputy DNI. I saw how that worked. With [President Trump], we did oral briefings two to three times a week, my predecessor and myself. That lasted basically a half an hour to as much as an hour. And so that was how he consumed information. But he didn't read.

The Cipher Brief: You said two or three times a week, so not a daily presentation. On those other days, did the PDB just goes into the ether? Did the president not get the briefing?

Sanner: It goes to everybody else, including the National Security Advisor, the Vice President, the Chief of Staff. Generally, all these people in the West Wing are getting it and taking briefings with a briefer, as well as going through the book with their briefer. Some people choose to read, and don't have a briefer.

But in any case, there are multiple people in the West Wing who are getting it on a daily basis. And our assumption, and I think a fairly good one, is that if anything is happening that is urgent, any one of those people would walk in or would make a call up to the residence. I personally did not worry about the cadence of two to three times a week. And in fact, I felt that in a way it worked better, because it allowed me to consolidate multiple stories from different agencies and different sources, the PDB being the central part of that.

I call it storytelling. I don't mean that like a child's book, but I mean putting stories together in a little bit more granularity and complexity. I think it's easier to absorb than going through a book that has six things that are totally not related to each other. You can create a flow, and you can make sense and connect the world a little bit better when you have a cadence that is a long period of time, but spaced out.

But this new report about him only getting [the briefing] maybe once a week now, I personally do not think that that is enough, given the complexity of the world and all of the things going on. I would say it needs to be three times a week.

The Cipher Brief: That report said that in President Trump’s first roughly a hundred days, there had been 12 sessions of in-person presentations of the PDB. The White House was asked for comment and they said the president, whenever he needs something, he has his national security team around him to get it. What's wrong with that answer, if anything?

Sanner: It's not different than a lot of other presidents. I want to be clear about that. I think the difference for President Trump is that many presidents who did not take briefings – for example, President Clinton took almost no briefings — but he read. So you kind of want that backstop, of the President looking at it.

President Trump was never upset at me for disagreeing with him or telling him something that he didn't want to hear. I mean, certainly there were moments, just like with any president, where it's not the best briefing in the world that day. I had friends who briefed different presidents who had those awkward moments and difficult moments. But I always came back the next time. And there was never a problem when I walked in the door the next day. And I think that this is the idea, and it's in the statute itself, which says that the intelligence community is supposed to provide objective, timely, relevant intelligence without regard for policy preference.

So unlike anyone else that goes to see the president, you know that you are the person who needs to be delivering that uncomfortable truth or that difficult fact that didn't actually go that way. I called myself the skunk at the garden party and joked about it, because it's really the only way you can do it. Everybody else is incentivized to please. I was incentivized to say what other people didn't want to say.

In fact, with many people on his team, I thought of it as very much a team sport. [They said] Beth, are you gonna brief this today? Of course I'm gonna brief that. Good. I always got full support from everyone on the team, because they really wanted the president to get information.

And so it shocks me in a way that this team, I wouldn't say they didn't feel the same way, but maybe they don't have the appreciation of what this should be or what this is supposed to be, because it's actually in their interest. Maybe they don't want to have the “Hey, boss” conversation, but that's our job.

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The Cipher Brief: Mike Collins, head of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) recently lost his job and it appears that it was because the intelligence assessment he provided on an issue pertinent to Venezuela did not line up with policy. Is that an example of the same thing, do you think? Something they might not have wanted to hear?

Sanner: Sure. Yes, that is an uncomfortable assessment. And I noticed that National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, when asked about it, he said, well, look, I agreed with the FBI position in that memo. And to me, this is why it's so good and important for the intelligence community to do the kind of work that that NIC memo did.

It laid out what they thought, why they thought that, and provided ample space for a dissenting opinion, for analysis that wasn't the agreement of everyone. And I think that's crucial because sometimes that dissenting view is correct, sometimes it's not. But generally what I found in my experience was that almost all of the recipients of PDBs and NIC products actually appreciated having those views even when they disagreed with them, because it helped them think.

The intelligence community is not like asking people to hit the easy button and the “I agree with you” button. That's not our role. Our role is to say what we think and why we think it. But also we have to have humility in that. The intelligence community isn't always right. But when done correctly and behind closed doors, I cannot understand why anybody would say that presenting an intelligence assessment that disagreed with policy needed to stop, or was an example of deep state. It's not. And it's really important.

The Cipher Brief: The news also came out last week that the PDB was being effectively moved out of CIA headquarters. Some of us might think, OK, that just sounds like an in-the-weeds bureaucratic reshuffle. Is it?

Sanner: As Deputy DNI for mission integration, mission integration meant two things for me. One was the intelligence community integration. And the second thing was to try to integrate the elements of the units that worked for me. And that included the mission managers, the National Intelligence Council, the PDB and the oversight group that did more technical things. I did not feel that those teams were collaborating enough.

So I would say that on one hand, the idea of bringing all these units together and having them collaborate more is actually a good thing on the face of it. I wanted the PDB folks to talk to the national intelligence officers because I wanted to double check – is this dissent that someone has, is this valid? What do you think about the evidence? Have we edited this correctly? Or is the line consistent with the previous line in terms of the analytic conclusions? So I wanted people to work together.

But the problem with moving the PDB is that it's a really complex ecosystem that is run by CIA. CIA is an executive agent. And people think they are just editors. It's not just editors. It's literally the technical part of it, the technical support for travel, the use of electronic media, the graphics people, the editors — all of that comes together at CIA headquarters. It is hard in some circumstances to do that without being in person. I do not know how the briefers, if they're sitting a mile, two miles down the street, how will they pick up their materials? How are they going to get their tablets? How is that all going to work?

My view here is that if anybody wants to put their thumb on the scale of analysis in the PDB, you do not need to move the PDB. That's not right. If they want to, they can just tell the briefer – which would not be right – don't brief that. Or when the briefer finishes, Tulsi Gabbard or [CIA Director John] Ratcliffe could chime in and say that they disagreed and think that that's not good analysis. There are lots of ways of putting your thumb on the scale. You don't need to move it. So this idea from the ODNI that it would allow them to respond more quickly to requests for information, that is an opposite world statement. It will make it harder, not easier.

I just think that they're not really understanding the technical part of this, even though I don't disagree with the idea of consolidation in terms of trying to get people to work more closely together as part of the ODNI.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

Taking a Look at the Battle of Midway

BOOK REVIEW: TAKING MIDWAY: Naval Warfare, Secret Codes and the Battle that Turned the Tide of World War II

By Martin Dugard/ Dutton

Reviewed by Jack Montgomery

The Reviewer — Jack Montgomery is an Ensign in the United States Navy and currently the Main Propulsion Officer aboard the USS HOWARD. He has a bachelor’s and master’s degree in history from Brown University, with a thesis on the Solomon Islands Campaign.

REVIEW — When Imperial Japanese aircraft first took off from their carriers at 0430 on June 4th, 1942, one of the most pivotal at-sea battles of the 20th century began. There, in the seas surrounding the small, far-flung atoll of Midway, the Imperial Japanese offensive push was blunted, and forced the Imperial Japanese Navy to enter an attritional campaign with the United States in the South and, eventually, Central Pacific that would ultimately destroy its ability to fight. It cannot be overstated how important this battle was to changing the momentum of the Pacific Theater, and Martin Dugard’s Taking Midway: Naval Warfare, Secret Codes, and the Battle that Turned the Tide of World War II describes just that.

The writing style, with its short, punchy sentences, takes some pages getting used to, but paired with the story-telling narrative, it makes it a quick and enjoyable read. Dugard has a tendency to follow down tangents of historical minutiae yet never slows the story, providing small, but interesting, tidbits of historical information that the casual historical reader will enjoy.

Those accustomed to Dugard’s “Taking” series will not be surprised to see a wide-ranging cast of characters and perspectives that make up this history, from Early Pacific explorers to the film director John Ford, but two individuals take primary focus: Admiral Nimitz and Lieutenant Commander Rochefort. Admiral Chester Nimitz’s story, from being appointed CINCPAC to his fateful decision to commit the American carriers to Midway, presents the reader with the dire situation faced by Allied forces in the Pacific as they tried to manage the balance between conserving combatant power and striking to hinder the Japanese Empire’s offensive progress. The challenges felt by Nimitz and his efforts to overcome them are vividly described, giving abstract strategic decisions real weight to the reader.

Dunford’s second principal character, Lieutenant Commander Joseph Rochefort guides us through the cryptological feats that were accomplished in order to create the victory at Midway. This is where Dugard’s ability to take complex concepts and clearly explain them without dragging the pace of the narrative or confusing the reader really shine. Dugard balances the explanations of cryptography with the political rivalries present between the different signal intelligence groups Hypo and OP-20-G, all the while continuing with the narrative of the cracking of the Japanese naval codes. When the paths of Rochefort and Nimitz collide, the strategic and the cryptological come together to tell the story of the decisions that determined one of the most consequential naval battles in history.

The book does in some instances oversimplifies, a common issue when covering a naval battle so large in scope. In one case it suggests that the IJN’s Aleutians Operation was an attempt to distract forces from Midway, which the definitive history of Midway from the Japanese perspective ‘Shattered Sword’ has demonstrated was almost certainly not the case. Dugard covers a lot of ground in this work, and his choice to cover much more regarding the HMS Prince of Wales and the pre-WW2 history of Midway than the tactical commanders at Midway, Admirals Raymond Spruance and Frank Jack Fletcher, may seem questionable to readers interested in the tactical decision-making of the battle. While these two topics provide some interesting context, (and the chapters concerning the HMS Prince of Wales does tie this book to its predecessor) their relevancy to the battle is minimal at best and this history suffers some from the lack of attention given to the tactical commanders.

Ultimately, Dugard provides a book that combines the history of Midway Island, the herculean cryptological efforts to discover the Japanese operation, the bold risks taken by the U.S. Navy to make good that advantage, and the experiences of the men fighting in the air and on the island that is most certainly worth a read.

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I Spy a Love Story

BOOK REVIEW: THE RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT’S WIFE

By Ken Dekleva

Reviewed by Neal A. Pollard

The Reviewer – Neal A. Pollard is a partner at Control Risks Group and was the lead cybersecurity executive for a global Swiss bank. Prior to joining the private sector in 2011, he spent 18 years in the US counterterrorism community, as a defense contractor and an intelligence officer. In 1996, he co-founded a counterterrorism corporation, sold in 2006 to Blackwater’s holding company. He is working on his first novel “Ordinary Spies,” a story of Silk Road gastronomy and nuclear terrorism.

REVIEW: Ken Dekleva’s third novel, The Russian Diplomat’s Wife, is ostensibly a spy novel set in Vienna. I say “ostensibly,” because at heart it’s a love story of two spies. It’s also a story that explores the core element of espionage and intelligence operations: the intense personal bond between a case officer and the agent he or she handles. This is an element unfortunately lost in many contemporary spy novels, which opt for the shoot-em-up adrenaline dumps of explosions, assassinations and car chases. Make no mistake: having a clandestine meeting to collect critical secrets with global security implications, from an asset living two lives and risking both, all while trying to think through and manage the million things that can go wrong – that can nudge the adrenal gland, too, without explosions or guns. But more importantly, compelling fiction explores the flaws of human nature – misplaced trust, emotion over logic, acting against one’s self-interest for an apparent “greater good” – and prompts the reader to ponder “this could be me, what would I do?” A spy novel should be perfectly suited for this exploration.

Dr. Dekleva’s novel does offer a few murders and action scenes, but it devotes more rewarding time to the human drama that lies at the center of espionage. And as a practicing psychiatrist and former U.S. State Department diplomat, Dr. Dekleva masters this aspect as he tells his story. Thus, it was no random choice to set the story in Vienna, known as both the city of spies and the city of the famed psychiatrist Sigmund Freud. Vienna (and its myriad cafés) plays almost as much of a character as the humans Dr. Dekleva created in his story, adding atmosphere and nuance to the characters’ actions.

The story opens with a CIA officer under non-official cover, living and operating in Vienna with the cryptonym “Copernicus.” The assets he handles operate under cryptonyms of planets: “Jupiter” and so on. Copernicus visits a favorite haunt, the Leopold Museum in Vienna, to gaze at a Klimt painting titled (fittingly) “Death and Life.” While Copernicus studies the painting, a woman enters, silent but seemingly troubled. The two of them alone in the room, Copernicus and the woman engage in an emotional conversation as Copernicus comforts the coincidental stranger. Their meeting was a chance encounter, but Freud believed there were no accidents in the unconscious. The evocative nature of the Klimt painting would have touched something similar in both of their hearts, since it drew them both to it. Such human connections can be the basis of the bond a case officer would try to forge, to develop and recruit an asset. Dr. Dekleva uses this well.

As the story unfolds, Copernicus and the woman remain in touch. But there’s something off about her. Copernicus detects a secret in her worth exploring, as he learns of her connection to a Russian diplomat, possibly an undercover intelligence officer. What starts as a question of “who is handling whom?” transforms into a starker question of counterintelligence concerns. Copernicus’s assets start dying, and the ranks of Russian, American, and Israeli intelligence services get involved. As the espionage comes into sharper focus, Copernicus and his “target” fall in love: a recipe for tragedy (and, in reality, a career-ender for a CIA officer, irrespective of cover).

The novel has a few flaws. The story timeline can be disjointed, accounting for actions across mere days then leaping forward years. The novel doesn’t emphasize tradecraft or “inside baseball” of CIA operations, and this isn’t the type of novel to look for it. Nonetheless, a few elements are unrealistic, especially the notion that CIA headquarters would knowingly accept a case officer proceeding in a romantic relationship with an asset. Once that disbelief is suspended, the plot as well as the love story unfold more naturally. A major twist with Copernicus’s arc does cause the reader to wonder where the novel should end. But eventually, Dr. Dekleva’s resolution makes sense.

One last point worth mentioning, that also distinguishes this novel from clichéd action tropes: the “enemy” here is human and sympathetic, not cardboard Bond villains. In fact, the adversaries are adversaries by accident of the political systems they were born into (and chose not to betray). In this respect, Dr. Dekleva evokes the human element of espionage that John Le Carré captured so well in his Cold War stories, while avoiding the cynicism. Across the adversarial face-offs, up to the final resolution of Copernicus and his true love’s fate (which I won’t spoil), this novel hints at George Smiley’s reluctant belief “that secret services were the only real measure of a nation’s political health, the only real expression of its subconscious.” The City of Spies’ most famous psychiatrist would have had a field day with that.

EDITORS NOTE: For more on this title – be sure to check out The Cipher Brief’s Cover Stories podcast interview with the author, Dr. Ken Dekleva.

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Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

Open Source Report for Thursday, May 22, 2025

Thursday, May 22, 2025. 8:47 AM EST

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here’s a look at today’s headlines, broken down by region of the world.

THE TOP HEADLINES

Thursday, May 22, 2025

How Putin turned Brazil into a spy factory

Trump Tells European Leaders in Private That Putin Isn’t Ready to End War

Poland intervenes as Russian 'shadow fleet' ship spotted near power cable

Israeli preparations underway for possible strike on Iran if nuclear talks break down

Tech race with China is top intel priority, deputy CIA director says

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Why Poland is Critical – For Ukraine and Europe’s Defense. Poland has emerged as a critical pillar in Europe’s defense against Russian aggression, with top security experts praising its military posture and strategic foresight. Former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, emphasized that Poland is the logistics hub for Ukraine support and has “arguably the most capable land force in Europe.” He noted that Poland’s tough stance stems from its accurate early assessment of the Russian threat and its geographic and political positioning. General Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, said Poland is preparing for scenarios where U.S. support may falter, even considering hosting nuclear weapons and leaving landmine treaties. “They’re going to start taking these more drastic measures because you just can’t bet your national sovereignty and existence on a hope,” Breedlove warned. Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland’s National Security Council, stressed that Poland's defense buildup, surpassing 4.7% of GDP, aims to prevent war through deterrence. He urged Europe to “grow up” and shoulder more responsibility for its collective defense. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Chinese Ghost Machines are the Hidden Risk in Australia’s Energy Infrastructure. Liesl Jordan, former senior security representative at the Australian High Commission in London and now CEO of Connect2Effect, warns that the discovery of hidden communication devices embedded in Chinese-made solar inverters represents a critical national security threat to Australia. These so-called “ghost machines” pose the risk of remote sabotage to essential energy infrastructure, potentially enabling blackouts or physical destruction of power grids. Jordan argues this is not merely a cyber espionage concern but a strategic vulnerability undermining Australia's sovereignty. She emphasizes that Australia’s energy transition and reliance on imported tech make it acutely exposed, and current safeguards, focused mainly on software, are insufficient. She calls for immediate audits of existing infrastructure, stronger regulation of imported critical technologies, and urgent diversification of supply chains. Jordan stresses that this threat requires deeper intelligence cooperation with Five Eyes partners, as national security in an era of state-sponsored tech infiltration demands verifiable trust and proactive defense. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Security will be a Critical Aspect of the New AI Center. Rick Ledgett, former National Security Agency Deputy Director and a veteran U.S. cyber intelligence official, argues that security must be a top priority in the new U.S.–United Arab Emirates joint artificial intelligence center. While the agreement opens access to advanced U.S. AI chips and reflects renewed American focus on the Middle East, it also creates opportunities for adversaries to gain unauthorized access to critical technologies. Ledgett warns that Iran, with a history of cyberattacks against the UAE and regional infrastructure, may target the center, especially through proxies like the Houthis. Russia’s intelligence services, though currently absorbed with Ukraine, may also seek to breach the center given U.S. involvement. Ledgett raises the most pointed concerns about China, citing the deep ties of G42 – a key AI-focused startup – to Beijing and its CEO Peng Xiao’s Chinese origins and murky affiliations. G42 was founded in 2018 and is chaired by Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed, who also serves as the country’s National Security Advisor. The company is integral to the Emirates' strategy of becoming a global AI powerhouse. Even after G42’s claimed divestment from Chinese firms, Ledgett questions whether current safeguards, such as Microsoft’s leasing model, are enough to prevent technology leakage and preserve U.S. AI dominance. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

2 Israeli Embassy staffers are killed near the Capital Jewish Museum in D.C. Two young Israeli Embassy staffers were shot and killed outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday night as they exited a Jewish event hosted by the American Jewish Committee. The suspect, 30-year-old Elias Rodriguez of Chicago, reportedly opened fire at close range, killing the couple, Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim, who were soon to be engaged. Authorities detained him inside the museum shortly after the attack. He shouted “free, free Palestine” after he was in custody. The victims were described as a “beautiful couple” by Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, who said “the young man purchased a ring this week with the intention of proposing to his girlfriend next week in Jerusalem.” U.S. and Israeli officials condemned the shooting as an act of antisemitic terrorism. President Donald Trump called it a “horrible” hate crime that “must end, NOW,” while Israeli President Isaac Herzog pledged unity in the face of hatred. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he has ordered the reinforcement of security at Israel’s missions worldwide. New York Times Axios CNN NBC News

Killing of Embassy Staffers Stokes Israeli Fears of Increasingly Hostile World. The fatal shooting of two Israeli Embassy staffers in Washington, D.C., by a gunman shouting “Free Palestine!” has deepened Israeli fears of a hostile global climate amid rising antisemitism since the start of the Gaza war. Victims Sarah Lynn Milgrim and Yaron Lischinsky were gunned down outside a Jewish Museum. This attack follows a wave of violent incidents targeting Jews globally, including assaults in France, the murder of a Chabad rabbi in Dubai, and attacks on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam. Pro-Palestinian protests across the West often feature incendiary slogans that some Jewish leaders say incite violence. The killings also reflect growing polarization over Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, with pressure mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war. Wall Street Journal

Pentagon Says It Has Taken Possession of 747 Jet from Qatar. The Pentagon on Wednesday formally accepted a luxury Boeing 747-8 jet donated by Qatar, which President Donald Trump intends to use as Air Force One. The move has sparked political and ethical controversy, with critics questioning the legality of accepting a foreign gift and the security risks of retrofitting a second-hand aircraft. Trump touted the $400 million plane as a "gift" to the U.S. Retrofitting the jet to presidential standards could cost over $1 billion and take years. The Air Force is now tasked with awarding a classified contract to upgrade the aircraft. Congress has yet to formally approve the gift, as required by law. Meanwhile, critics argue the effort diverts resources from the two already delayed Boeing-built VC-25B Air Force One replacements, which aren’t expected to be ready until 2027 or later. Wall Street Journal CNN New York Times Washington Post

Hegseth to Air Force: Figure out how to modify the Qatari jet. The Air Force is assessing how to convert a Qatari Boeing 747 into an interim Air Force One, following orders from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump. Air Force Secretary Troy Meink told Congress that the jet, publicly touted by Trump as a “gift,” would require extensive security upgrades, including secure communications and counterintelligence systems. Lawmakers, especially Sen. Tammy Duckworth, expressed serious concerns over the plan’s legality, ethics, cost (possibly over $1 billion), and potential national security risks. Critics also worry that the push to make the jet operational before Trump’s term ends could lead to compromised standards and delay the existing VC-25B program. Under the program, Boeing is building a pair of new Air Force Ones, which were initially due for delivery last year but may not be ready until 2029. Defense One Defense News

Trump's Golden Dome plan could launch new era of weapons in space. President Donald Trump has unveiled the "Golden Dome" missile defense initiative, a $175 billion plan aimed at deploying space-based weapons to intercept both conventional and nuclear missiles from orbit. This ambitious project, reminiscent of the Cold War-era Strategic Defense Initiative, proposes a vast satellite network equipped with missile interceptors, signaling a significant shift in U.S. space policy toward open militarization. While intended to counter threats from nations like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, critics warn that the plan may trigger a new arms race in space, encouraging other nations to develop similar or more advanced systems. The initiative has garnered support from major defense contractors, with companies like L3Harris, SpaceX, Palantir, and Lockheed Martin poised for key roles. However, funding remains uncertain, with a proposed $25 billion initial investment tied to a larger and politically contested $150 billion defense bill. International reactions have been mixed: China has expressed serious concerns, citing the plan’s offensive implications, while Russia has suggested it might prompt renewed arms control talks. Experts caution that the Golden Dome could have far-reaching and unpredictable consequences for global space security. Reuters

Carney Says Canada, US Are in ‘High Level’ Talks on Golden Dome Defense System. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed that Canada is weighing the idea of joining the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile defense project but added that discussions are still in the early stages and no cost estimate has been finalized. The proposed system, which aims to defend North America against ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and advanced cruise missiles, could cost the U.S. between $175 billion and $542 billion. President Trump has said Canada must pay its “fair share.” Canada and the U.S. have long cooperated through NORAD, and in 2022, Canada committed C$38.6 billion to modernizing the joint defense system, including advanced radar systems. Carney has taken a more cautious stance on U.S. relations, stating that Ottawa should not assume deeper integration with Washington and may seek alternative economic and security partnerships. He also ordered a review of Canada’s planned F-35 jet purchase, a deal that the U.S. strongly supports. Bloomberg

Phone companies failed to warn senators about surveillance, Wyden says. Senator Ron Wyden revealed Wednesday that AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile failed to notify senators about government surveillance on Senate-issued devices, as required by contracts enacted in 2020. Wyden’s investigation found none of the carriers had systems in place for such notifications, potentially violating their agreements with the Senate Sergeant at Arms. After being contacted, all three began issuing the required notices, though one admitted to previously handing over Senate data without alerting lawmakers. While the carriers now notify about surveillance on Senate-issued lines, only T-Mobile has agreed to extend this to personal and campaign devices—commonly used by senators. Wyden warned that significant surveillance gaps remain, urging lawmakers to consider switching to more transparent providers. He also raised broader cybersecurity concerns and renewed calls for legislative protections for personal devices, citing past government surveillance of congressional staff during the Trump administration. Wyden is pushing for new rules in the appropriations bill to close these security gaps. Politico

Trump Claimed a Social Media Video Showed ‘Burial Sites’ of White Farmers. It Didn’t. During Wednesday’s White House meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, U.S. President Donald Trump falsely claimed that a video he showed depicted “burial sites” of over 1,000 white farmers killed in South Africa. The video, however, actually displayed a memorial procession held in 2020 for a murdered white farming couple near Newcastle. The white crosses seen were temporarily planted for the event and later removed. One White House official claimed that each cross represented a white victim. Trump presented the video as evidence of racial persecution, asserting a genocide against white farmers, despite South African crime statistics showing no such targeted violence. The source of the video shown by Trump is unclear, but South African-born tech billionaire Elon Musk had previously shared it on social media. When questioned by Ramaphosa about the footage’s origin, Trump simply said, “I mean, it’s in South Africa.” The incident has drawn attention for spreading misinformation and misrepresenting racial violence in South Africa. New York Times Wall Street Journal Associated Press Financial Times

How Putin turned Brazil into a spy factory. A sweeping New York Times investigation has revealed that Russia’s intelligence services transformed Brazil into a hub for “illegals” — elite deep-cover spies who assumed Brazilian identities to infiltrate the West. Operatives like Artem Shmyrev, posing as Brazilian businessman Gerhard Daniel Campos Wittich, built convincing lives with businesses, relationships, and real government documents. Brazil’s Federal Police, through a years-long covert effort called Operation East, uncovered at least nine such Russian agents using forged but authentic credentials. The operation unraveled after the 2022 arrest of Sergey Cherkasov, who attempted to infiltrate the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands using a fake Brazilian identity. The dismantling of this network, aided by intelligence from the U.S., Israel, and Europe, severely damaged Russia’s espionage program. Brazilian authorities issued Interpol notices to expose the agents, effectively ending their ability to work abroad. New York Times New York Times

As the Soviet Union Fell, Did the K.G.B. Leave a Gift in Brazil for Today’s Spies? Brazilian investigators have uncovered a potential Cold War-era K.G.B. operation that may have planted authentic-looking birth certificates in Brazil decades ago, possibly to support future Russian deep-cover spies. A forensic analysis revealed that the documents, used recently by suspected Russian operatives, were not forgeries but appeared to be genuine archival entries from the 1980s and ’90s—raising the possibility that Soviet intelligence planted them in anticipation of future use. While some Western experts are skeptical, others say this aligns with the Russian tradition of long-term espionage planning. The Brazilian Federal Police disrupted what they describe as an “assembly line” for creating airtight identities, with operatives embedding deeply into society before moving abroad for espionage. The investigation is ongoing, and the courts have sealed the documents. Experts note the effort reflects the meticulous and generational approach favored by Russian intelligence services. New York Times

ICE agents wait in hallways of immigration court as Trump seeks to deliver on mass arrest pledge. In a major shift in immigration enforcement, U.S. authorities this week began detaining migrants—many without criminal records—immediately after their immigration court cases were dismissed. Juan Serrano, a 28-year-old Colombian asylum-seeker, was among those arrested at the Miami courthouse after a judge dropped his deportation case. Outside the courtroom, federal agents were waiting to take him into custody. Similar arrests occurred in cities across the U.S., signaling a coordinated dragnet under the Trump administration. Immigration officials, under orders issued Monday, dismissed numerous court cases, effectively freeing agents to detain migrants post-hearing. Advocates and attorneys warn this tactic could discourage migrants from attending court at all. Serrano, who had no criminal record and worked in construction, had fled political threats in Colombia. Immigration attorneys say the new approach marks an aggressive and unprecedented use of court dismissals to facilitate mass arrests. Associated Press

US sanctions two members of a Mexican drug trafficking group known as the Northeast Cartel. The U.S. has slapped sanctions on two senior members of the Mexican drug cartel del Noreste, formerly Los Zetas, as part of its intensified crackdown on cross-border crime. The Treasury Department targeted Ricardo Gonzalez Sauceda, the group’s former second-in-command who was arrested in February 2025, and Miguel Angel de Anda Ledezma, who is allegedly responsible for procuring weapons for the cartel. Earlier this year, the Trump administration designated the Northeast Cartel and seven other groups as foreign terrorist organizations. The cartel, a remnant of the once-powerful Zetas, is based in Nuevo Laredo, a key U.S.-Mexico border hub. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed to maintain efforts to disrupt the cartels’ access to money, drugs, and weapons. This move follows the March arraignment in Washington of former Zetas leaders on charges including drug trafficking and murder conspiracies aimed at the U.S. market. Associated Press U.S. Department of the Treasury

Mexico City on the hunt for killers of mayor’s aides. Mexico City’s Public Security chief has said that at least four individuals were involved in the killing of two close aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada. The two were fatally shot in a highly coordinated attack this week, an incident that marks one of the most serious acts of political violence in the city in years. It is believed that the suspects fled on a motorbike afterward, before changing vehicles twice and traveling to the neighboring Mexico state. While no motive has been confirmed, authorities described the attack as deliberate, as it was carried out with significant planning and operational expertise. Brugada, of the ruling Morena party, had campaigned on improving public safety. The incident has drawn comparisons to a 2020 assassination attempt on then–security chief Omar Garcia Harfuch, now Mexico’s national security minister. Bloomberg Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump Tells European Leaders in Private That Putin Isn’t Ready to End War. President Donald Trump privately told European leaders in a call on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to end the war in Ukraine because he believes he’s winning. This marked a shift from Trump’s prior public claims that Putin wanted peace. Despite acknowledging Putin’s stance, Trump declined to pursue additional sanctions, instead proposing lower-level talks at the Vatican. The call included French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It came after Trump’s two-hour conversation with Putin. On Sunday, Trump had signaled possible sanctions but backed off the next day. He dismissed calls for an "unconditional" ceasefire and appeared noncommittal about direct U.S. involvement. The talks are expected to begin in mid-June. European leaders saw the calls as clarifying Putin’s true position and as a signal they may have to lead support for Ukraine without strong U.S. pressure on Moscow. “This isn’t my war,” Trump told reporters on Monday after his Putin call. “We got ourselves entangled in something we shouldn’t have been involved in.” Wall Street Journal

Russian Advance in Ukraine Is Slowing Despite Putin’s Confidence. Despite President Vladimir Putin’s confident rhetoric, Russian forces have made only marginal gains in Ukraine this year, seizing just 0.15% more territory since January. Their advance has slowed sharply, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region, suggesting Putin’s ambitions to fully occupy four contested regions remain far-fetched. Analysts warn it could take decades to meet those goals. Yet, President Donald Trump’s retreat from ceasefire diplomacy and softer stance on sanctions may embolden the Kremlin. European allies are reinforcing support, but Ukraine’s manpower shortages and U.S. policy shifts threaten its defense. Kyiv warns that only Washington’s pressure can realistically force Putin to end the war. Bloomberg

Ukraine pitches tougher Russia sanctions plan to EU as US wavers. As U.S. President Donald Trump backs away from tightening sanctions on Russia, Ukraine is urging the European Union to assume greater leadership. In a 40-page white paper, Kyiv proposes aggressive new measures, including seizing Russian assets, imposing secondary sanctions on foreign buyers of Russian oil, and speeding up European Union asset seizure legislation. Ukraine warns that Washington has largely withdrawn from key sanctions coordination platforms, undermining global efforts. Despite Trump’s reluctance, the EU and UK have pushed forward with new sanctions. Kyiv stresses that European resolve is critical to maintaining pressure on Moscow. Reuters

Ukraine Said It Hit Russia Chip Plant Used in Missile Production. Ukraine launched a drone strike that damaged the Bolkhov semiconductor plant in Russia’s Oryol region, Ukraine’s General Staff said Wednesday. The plant is reportedly part of the supply chain for Russia’s Iskander and Kinzhal missiles and Sukhoi fighter jets. Oryol Governor Andrey Klychkov confirmed the damage but provided no details. The strike is part of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to disrupt Russian military production in the fourth year of the war. Russia claimed to have downed 39 Ukrainian drones that morning, including 30 over the Oryol region. Reuters

Russia says it downed over 232 Ukrainian drones, forcing Moscow airports to halt some flights. Russia claimed on Wednesday it shot down at least 232 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions, including several approaching Moscow, prompting a brief suspension of flights at the capital’s airports. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed three drones were intercepted near the city. Ukraine said its drones struck the Bolkhovsky Semiconductor Devices Plant in the Oryol region; a facility linked to Russian missile and jet production. Reuters

Rubio Signals Labeling Putin War Criminal Would Hurt Peace Talks. During a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that labeling Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal could undermine President Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Rubio acknowledged that “war crimes have been committed, no doubt,” but emphasized that “the job is to end the war” and that accountability can come later. A day earlier, in a Senate hearing, Rubio argued that threatening sanctions could halt dialogue with Russia, saying, “If you start threatening sanctions, the Russians will stop talking.” Bloomberg

Trump misjudged influence on Putin, German defense minister says. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Deutschlandfunk radio on Wednesday that U.S. President Donald Trump had misjudged his influence over Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pistorius made the remark after Monday’s phone call between Trump and Putin failed to produce progress on a Ukraine ceasefire. Trump had pushed for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire but later abandoned the effort. In response, the European Union announced new sanctions on Russia, while Washington’s participation in further measures remains uncertain. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, May 21. Russian President Vladimir Putin used a staged meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on Tuesday to signal renewed ambitions to seize Sumy City and annex Sumy Oblast, framing the move as creating a protective “buffer zone” for Russian territory. Putin also continued promoting the Kremlin’s false narrative that Ukraine is dominated by “neo-Nazi” ideology, using alleged destruction of World War II monuments by Ukrainian forces to prepare the Russian public for rejection of any future peace deal. In a related effort to delegitimize Ukraine, Kremlin advisor Anton Kobyakov claimed the Soviet Union was never legally dissolved, asserting that the war in Ukraine is an “internal Russian affair.” This rhetoric sets the stage for denying the sovereignty of former Soviet states and justifying Russian intervention beyond Ukraine. Meanwhile, U.S. and allied intelligence agencies issued a alert revealing that Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency has conducted cyber operations against NATO infrastructure. On the battlefield, Ukraine has responded to evolving Russian tactics by forming its first formal assault motorcycle unit, reflecting the increasing reliance on agile, light-vehicle assaults.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Poland intervenes as Russian 'shadow fleet' ship spotted near power cable. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced Wednesday that the military intervened after a Russian “shadow fleet” vessel was spotted performing suspicious maneuvers near an undersea power cable linking Poland and Sweden. The ship, identified as the Sun and sailing under an Antigua flag, withdrew after a Polish patrol flight intervened. The incident underscores growing concerns over Baltic Sea infrastructure security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz warned of increasing sabotage threats and vowed a strong NATO and Polish response to any attacks on critical undersea assets. The cable remains operational. Reuters

Germany Scales Up Battle Tank Brigade in Baltics to Deter Russia. Germany is significantly expanding its military presence in Lithuania by establishing Panzer Brigade 45, its first permanent overseas tank brigade since World War II, to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank against potential Russian aggression. The brigade, expected to be fully operational by the end of 2027 with up to 5,000 personnel, reflects Germany's broader commitment to European defense as U.S. security guarantees waver. Currently, 400 German troops are stationed in Lithuania, with plans to reach 2,000 by mid-2026. Lithuania, strategically located between Russia and Belarus, is investing €1 billion and boosting defense spending to host the brigade. Germany’s ability to deploy the full unit depends on Lithuania’s infrastructure readiness and Berlin's efforts to recruit more soldiers. Defense firm Rheinmetall is also expanding in the region, building an artillery plant in Lithuania and eyeing further ventures in Latvia, aligning military strategy with economic investment in Eastern Europe. Bloomberg

Finland completes first 35 kilometers of fence on Russian border. Finland announced Wednesday the completion of the first 35 kilometers of a planned 200-kilometer high-security fence along its border with Russia, aimed at curbing mass migration that Finnish authorities believe was orchestrated by Moscow in 2023. The 4.5-meter barrier—equipped with barbed wire, cameras, sensors, and lights—follows Finland’s closure of all passenger crossings after 1,300 asylum seekers from countries like Syria and Somalia entered via Russia. Despite criticism from Russia and human rights bodies, Finnish officials insist the fence is necessary for national security and effective border surveillance. Completion is expected by 2026. Reuters

Romanian president-elect backs higher NATO spending. Romania’s president-elect Nicușor Dan affirmed in an interview with the Financial Times that he supports NATO’s proposed defense spending target of 3.5% of GDP, plus additional funds for infrastructure and cybersecurity, aligning Romania firmly with Western security priorities amid rising tensions with Russia. His election followed months of political instability, including the cancellation of the initial presidential vote due to suspected Russian interference. Dan pledged to reduce Romania’s record 9.3% budget deficit to 7.5% by cutting €6 billion in spending this year, while reassuring investors by highlighting his fiscal reform record as Bucharest’s mayor. He emphasized the need for a stable coalition government and is expected to nominate interim president Ilie Bolojan as prime minister. Dan warned that unresolved concerns over Russian meddling and economic grievances could empower far-right forces in future elections, urging more transparency and reform to restore public trust and protect Romania’s democratic trajectory. Financial Times

EU envoys reach deal on 150-billion-euro arms fund. European Union ambassadors on Wednesday approved a new €150 billion ($170 billion) defense fund called the Security Action for Europe (SAFE), aimed at strengthening the EU’s defense industry amid growing concerns over Russian aggression and uncertain U.S. protection under President Donald Trump. Proposed in March, the fund will provide loans for joint European defense projects, requiring at least 65% involvement from companies in the EU, European Economic Area, or Ukraine. British firms became eligible this week after the UK signed a Security and Defense Partnership. Final approval by EU ministers is expected on May 27. Reuters Euronews

China opposes EU's Russia-related sanctions on its firms, cites 'double standards.' China’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday strongly condemned new European Union sanctions targeting Chinese firms over ties to Russia. Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning called the sanctions “unreasonable” and accused the EU of “double standards,” noting that many Western countries, including EU members and the U.S., still trade with Russia. At a regular press briefing, Mao urged the EU to reverse course and warned that China would take necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights and interests. The EU and UK imposed the sanctions a day earlier. Reuters

Trump nominates Darryl Nirenberg as new US ambassador to Romania. President Donald Trump has nominated lawyer and former Senate staffer Darryl Nirenberg as U.S. ambassador to Romania. Nirenberg, currently at Steptoe LLP, previously served under Senator Jesse Helms. His appointment requires Senate approval. The White House has not commented on Romania’s recent election victory by centrist mayor Nicusor Dan. Reuters Times of India

French reports suggest Muslim Brotherhood-linked groups attempted to influence EU. A leaked French government report claims that organizations linked to the Muslim Brotherhood have been lobbying EU institutions to influence policies in ways that conflict with France’s secular values. The report, seen by media outlets before its official release, alleges that the Brotherhood and its ideological allies sought to push for blasphemy laws and a restrictive interpretation of religious freedom, particularly targeting the European Parliament. Groups named include the Council of European Muslims (CEM) and the Forum of European Muslim Youth and Student Organizations (FEMYSO), with claims that they received funding from Qatar and Kuwait. FEMYSO denied the allegations. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for measures to counter such influence, which will be discussed next month. The report has already sparked political debate, with right-wing figures citing it as proof of Islamist infiltration. Meanwhile, left-wing leaders accuse the government of fueling Islamophobia. The document is expected to be officially released by week's end. Politico EU France 24 BBC RFI

German police arrest teens in suspected extreme-right terror plot. German police arrested five juveniles on Wednesday linked to a far-right terrorist cell called “Last Wave of Defense,” accused of plotting violent attacks against migrants and left-wing groups. The suspects allegedly aimed to destabilize Germany’s democratic system by carrying out arson and explosive attacks. Two of them, aged 15, face attempted murder charges for setting fire to a cultural center last October. Others attacked an asylum-seeker shelter, firing pyrotechnics into the building and vandalizing it with swastikas and Nazi salutes. Four are charged with membership in a terrorist organization; one is accused of supporting it. The arrests follow a warning from German authorities about a sharp rise in far-right crimes and growing youth radicalization. Politico EU New York Times The Guardian Euronews

THE MIDDLE EAST

Israeli sources say preparations underway for possible strike on Iran if nuclear talks break down. Two Israeli sources informed Axios that Israel is preparing for a potential military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities if U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations collapse. This follows intelligence from U.S. officials suggesting the same possibility. Israeli intelligence recently shifted from expecting a deal to believing talks could fail soon. The Israel Defense Forces have intensified training for a potential multi-day campaign, not just a single strike, amid concerns that the operational window for success may soon close. Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly waiting for the right moment, possibly when President Trump expresses disappointment with the negotiations. However, U.S. officials are worried Israel might act unilaterally without Washington’s approval. The fifth round of talks is scheduled in Rome, but a key sticking point remains Iran’s insistence on maintaining uranium enrichment capabilities—a red line for the U.S. Any Israeli action risks sparking regional conflict and radioactive fallout. Axios

Why Rising Israel-Iran Tensions Threaten to Boil Over. The long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since the start of the October 2023 Israel-Hamas war, escalating into direct attacks involving missiles and drones. While both countries relied on proxy battles for decades, they have now exchanged strikes on each other's territory, ramping up the possibility of full-blown war. Israel views Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and may launch a military campaign if diplomacy fails, particularly over Tehran’s uranium enrichment. Iran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, has developed a large missile and drone arsenal despite technological disadvantages and has turned to Russia for military upgrades. Israel, with U.S. backing and superior defenses, has already neutralized much of Iran’s missile capabilities. However, an Israeli strike on Iran’s widely dispersed, underground nuclear sites would be complex and may only delay the Islamic Republic’s program. Its regional allies include Hezbollah and the Houthis, while Israel counts on support from the U.S. and UK. Arab states, though wary of Iran, are unlikely to back Israel openly in a war. Bloomberg

EU outrage grows after Israel fires ‘warning shots’ at diplomatic delegation. EU member states have slammed the Israeli army for an incident on Wednesday in which troops fired warning shots near a diplomatic delegation visiting a refugee camp in Jenin, West Bank. The delegation, which included diplomats from the EU, France, the U.K., Italy, Canada, Russia, China, and others, was reportedly off an approved route and in an unauthorized area, according to Israel’s foreign ministry. Both EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot condemned the shooting as “unacceptable,” with Germany denouncing Israel’s “unprovoked shelling.” The Israel Defense Forces said the shots were meant to scare the group away and promised to investigate. Kallas insisted that even warning shots endanger lives and demanded accountability. Several other countries, including Belgium and Italy, expressed outrage and summoned Israeli ambassadors for explanations. The Palestinian Authority (PA) shared footage of members of the delegation sprinting to safety as shots rang out, with a spokesperson labeling the incident a deliberate targeting of diplomats. The event occurred just after the bloc announced a review of its political and economic ties with Israel over concerns about the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Politico EU Bloomberg Associated Press Reuters

Israel ‘probably’ killed elusive Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar, Netanyahu says. At a press conference on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has “probably” killed Mohammed Sinwar, the elusive Hamas leader in Gaza, in a recent strike on the European hospital in Khan Younis. ⁠“We eliminated tens of thousands of terrorists,” Netanyahu said. “We eliminated the leaders of the murderers Deif, Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar and most likely Mohammad Sinwar.” The targeted airstrike reportedly killed 28 Palestinians and injured over 50. Mohammed Sinwar is the brother of former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by Israeli forces in October. Hamas has not yet commented on the claim. CNN Reuters

Lebanese and Palestinian leaders agree that Lebanon won’t be used as a launchpad to strike Israel. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas have agreed that Palestinian factions will not use Lebanon to launch attacks on Israel and that all weapons outside the control of the Lebanese state must be removed. This announcement came during Abbas’s first visit to Lebanon in seven years. The agreement aims to reinforce Lebanese authority, particularly in the south, following the recent Israel-Hezbollah conflict. While Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon house various armed factions, including Fatah, Hamas, and smaller jihadi groups, the 12 camps operate independently of the Lebanese state. The joint statement underscored that the camps should not be safe havens for extremists and reaffirmed Palestinian commitment to non-interference from Lebanese territory. Associated Press

Israel Said It Eased Its Blockade, But Gazans Are Still Waiting for Food. Three days after Israel announced it would ease its blockade on Gaza, little humanitarian aid has reached the population, leaving hundreds of thousands of Palestinians still facing acute hunger. While Israel says dozens of aid trucks have entered via the Kerem Shalom crossing, the U.N. reports it has been unable to distribute supplies due to Israeli restrictions and logistical delays. Food, fuel, and medicine remain critically scarce, with many families surviving on a single daily meal. The blockade, which has been in place since early March, has drawn international condemnation, including from Pope Leo XIV and President Donald Trump. Aid groups warn Gaza is at critical risk of famine, particularly among children, as prices skyrocket and access to essentials vanishes. “We don’t plan meals anymore,” said one woman. “Just survival.” New York Times Wall Street Journal

An Exhausted Israeli Public Turns Against War in Gaza. Support for Israel’s war in Gaza has significantly declined over 19 months, with growing public demand to end the fighting in exchange for the release of remaining hostages. While initially united after the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack, the Israeli public is now increasingly war-weary due to repeated military deployments, unclear objectives, and dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Netanyahu's leadership. Polls show about 70% of Israelis now favor ending the war to secure the hostages' release. Critics accuse Netanyahu of prolonging the conflict for political reasons, an allegation he denies. Public protests have shifted from solely demanding the hostages' return to explicitly calling for a ceasefire. Rising humanitarian concerns, especially among the center-left, reflect a subtle but growing change in public sentiment. Exhausted reservists, their families, and civil movements have amplified calls to end the war. And international pressure, including from the U.S. and allies, is further pushing Israel toward de-escalation. Wall Street Journal

US to appoint Turkey ambassador Thomas Barrack as special envoy for Syria, sources say. Sources told Reuters the U.S. will appoint Thomas Barrack, ambassador to Turkey and longtime adviser to President Donald Trump, as special envoy for Syria. The move follows Trump’s decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria and reflects Turkey’s rising influence in the region after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster. Barrack recently joined Secretary of State Marco Rubio in high-level meetings with Syrian and Turkish officials. The appointment is expected to support post-war reconstruction and promote regional stability, including potential normalization with Israel. Reuters

Iran parliament approves strategic pact with Russia. Iran’s parliament approved a 20-year strategic partnership with Russia on Wednesday, formalizing an agreement signed by Presidents Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin in January. The pact deepens military and economic cooperation, including joint exercises and financial integration, though it stops short of a mutual defense clause. The agreement follows expanded ties since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, amid accusations that Iran has supplied weapons, claims it denies. A separate free trade deal between Iran and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union took effect last week, easing tariffs to boost bilateral trade. Reuters

Armed group in Syria's Suwayda takes governor hostage for prisoner's release. An armed group in Syria's Suwayda province briefly took Governor Mustafa Al-Bakour and others hostage at the town hall to demand the release of a jailed associate convicted of vehicle theft. The attackers secured the release of the prisoner in exchange for the hostages’ safety. The incident occurred in Suwayda, a region largely inhabited by the Druze, a religious minority found across Syria and neighboring areas. Reuters

Militants kill 2 soldiers in attack on Russian air base in Syria. Two militants attacked Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria on Tuesday, killing at least two people, possibly Russian soldiers or Syrian contractors, according to a Syrian official and a local activist. The attackers, reportedly foreign nationals who had previously worked as military trainers, were also killed. No official statement has been issued by Moscow. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed at least three deaths but could not verify identities. The militants are believed to have acted independently and were linked to the new Syrian defense forces, which include foreign Islamist fighters. The attack comes amid ongoing instability following the ouster of former President Bashar Assad, a longtime Russian ally, who is now in exile in Russia. Although Syria's new transitional government maintains ties with Moscow, tensions persist. Clashes between factions have led to sectarian violence and displacement, with many Alawite civilians now sheltering at the Hmeimim base. Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

A look at recent deadly attacks in Pakistan as it battles rising militancy. Pakistan is grappling with a surge in deadly militant violence, marked most recently by Wednesday’s suicide bombing that killed five people, including three children, on an army-run school bus in Balochistan. On March 11, militants from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) killed 31 people in a train hijacking in the province. Just days earlier, on March 4, a suicide attack on a military base in Bannu killed 18. A November 2024 blast targeting a police van in Mastung left seven dead, including five students. On August 26, 2024, coordinated BLA attacks across Balochistan killed 52. In December 2023, twin mosque bombings during Prophet Mohammed’s birthday celebrations in Mastung killed 57. And in July 2023, a suicide bombing at a religious rally in Bajaur killed 56, an attack claimed by the Islamic State. Reuters

India’s Security Forces Kill Dozens in a Bid to Crush Leftist Rebels. India has escalated its decades-long fight against Maoist insurgents, with security forces killing at least 27 suspected rebels on Wednesday in Chhattisgarh. The offensive is part of a broader push by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to eradicate the Maoist movement by March 2026. Authorities claim several senior Maoist leaders, possibly including top commander Nambala Keshav Rao, were among those killed. Over 200 insurgents have died this year, and 700 have reportedly surrendered. However, human rights activists warn of potential civilian casualties and question whether some of the dead may have surrendered before being killed. The Maoist insurgency, which began in the 1960s as a land redistribution movement, now largely advocates for tribal rights and forest resource protection in India’s mineral-rich “Red Corridor.” Critics argue that recent infrastructure projects intended to “develop” these regions may instead pave the way for mining operations, deepening local mistrust of the state’s intentions. New York Times

China urges trust, cooperation with Pakistan, Afghanistan as regional tensions mount. As regional military tensions surge, China has pledged to strengthen trust and cooperation with Pakistan and Afghanistan, underscoring shared efforts to promote peace and stability. In a meeting in Beijing on Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his counterparts, Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar and Afghanistan’s Amir Khan Muttaqi, to discuss enhancing political ties, deepening diplomacy, and combating terrorism. The three countries agreed to improve law enforcement coordination, support each other’s sovereignty, and resist external interference. China also encouraged greater participation in its Belt and Road Initiative, backing Afghanistan’s reconstruction and regional development. Amid renewed military tensions between Pakistan and India and a deadly bombing in southwestern Pakistan, China reiterated its “ironclad” support for Islamabad and urged dialogue to manage disputes. While not formally recognizing the Taliban regime, China has maintained economic and political engagement, urging Kabul to prevent cross-border terrorism, particularly threats to Chinese nationals and interests. South China Morning Post

The Fortress That China Built for Its Battle with America. In 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping gathered the nation’s top scientists in Beijing to relay China’s most pressing mission: the aggressive pursuit of technological self-reliance in response to U.S. trade restrictions. Xi warned that national security depends on reducing dependence on foreign tech, and that Beijing must never rely on others. Under policies like "Made in China 2025," China has advanced in key sectors such as electric vehicles, AI, robotics, pharmaceuticals, and space and satellite technology. Government-led investment has poured hundreds of billions into R&D, enabling domestic firms to rival global leaders and boosting industrial capabilities, especially in shipbuilding, where China now leads globally. Efforts have extended to critical areas like nuclear power, semiconductor development, and food and energy security. However, complete self-sufficiency remains elusive due to China’s large population and ongoing imports. Despite major gains, hurdles such as inefficiencies, corruption, and overreliance on state planning pose long-term risks. Economic challenges, including rising debt and a struggling real estate sector, threaten future growth. Experts warn that without reform, China's state-driven model may limit its long-term economic potential. Wall Street Journal

PLA researchers rank Cold War relic B-52 a bigger nuclear threat than F-35, B-2. A Chinese military research team has identified the aging U.S. B-52H Stratofortress bomber as the top threat in a potential tactical nuclear air strike against China, surpassing even stealth platforms like the F-35A and B-2 Spirit. The study, led by researchers at the PLA Air Force Early Warning Academy, ranked the 70-year-old B-52H highest due to its large nuclear payload, modern radar, and upgraded electronic warfare systems. The analysis simulated a U.S. penetrating counterair (PCA) operation on Chinese inland targets or naval fleets and concluded that B61-12 nuclear bombs could be used to disable key Chinese defenses. The study urged China to enhance surveillance, air defense, and electronic warfare to counter such threats, particularly from networked stealth systems. It also highlighted the need to differentiate between nuclear and conventional strikes. Notably, researchers avoided AI-based models, using game theory instead to guide decision-making. The findings underscore growing concerns over U.S.-China military tensions, especially regarding Taiwan and regional deterrence dynamics. South China Morning Post

Chinese scientists prove US Air Force’s Mach 16 engine concept ‘feasible’. Chinese scientists claim to have successfully conducted a ground test of a hypersonic oblique detonation engine (ODE) using standard jet fuel, validating a concept first proposed by U.S. researchers in 1958. The test, simulating Mach 8 flight conditions at 30km altitude, sustained stable detonation for over two seconds, marking a significant breakthrough in hypersonic propulsion technology. Conducted by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology and Northwestern Polytechnical University, the achievement demonstrates the technical feasibility of an engine capable of Mach 6–16 speeds without moving parts, a concept long viewed as impractical due to its extreme engineering challenges. South China Morning Post

Japan’s Ishiba Calls for Closer Weapons Development With Allies. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has stressed the need for Tokyo and its allies to bolster cooperation in defense technology development amid rising security threats in the Asia-Pacific region. Speaking at Japan’s largest defense industry conference on Thursday, Ishiba argued that no country, including the U.S., can handle defense challenges alone due to the escalating costs and pace of technological change. He called for stronger international partnerships involving joint development, production, and transfer of defense equipment. Japan is increasing military spending, committing ¥43 trillion ($300 billion) over five years to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP. Projects include a U.S.-Japan hypersonic missile interceptor and a sixth-generation fighter jet with the UK and Italy, set for 2035 deployment. Ishiba cited rapid technological turnover and financial strain as reasons for collective development efforts. The conference also reflected growing domestic interest in defense, with more Japanese companies entering or expanding in the sector. Bloomberg

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un condemns ‘serious’ warship accident at launch ceremony. North Korea experienced a "serious accident" during the launch ceremony of a new 5,000-ton-class destroyer, with state media blaming "inexperienced command and operational carelessness." Overseen by leader Kim Jong Un, the incident damaged parts of the keel and left the bow stuck on the shipway on Wednesday. Kim blasted the “irresponsible errors,” referring to the accident as a “criminal act.” He vowed to handle those involved and ordered repairs to be completed before June. The warship is reportedly similar to the Choe Hyon-class guided-missile destroyer. The mishap comes amid Pyongyang’s ongoing efforts to expand its military capabilities, including Kim’s recent push for greater naval range and preemptive strike power. Despite typically concealing failures, North Korea acknowledged this setback, as it did with a failed spy satellite launch last year. Analysts believe this may be due to the regime’s dedication to show modernization and express its confidence in eventually building a greater navy. The destroyer’s unveiling was part of Kim’s broader response to U.S. and allied military exercises in the region. Bloomberg Associated Press Reuters Yonhap News Agency

North Korea fires multiple cruise missiles, South Korea reports. North Korea launched multiple cruise missiles into the East Sea on Thursday, according to the South Korean military. The missiles were fired around 9 a.m. from the Sondok area in South Hamgyong Province. South Korean and U.S. intelligence are analyzing the launches in detail. This follows North Korea’s earlier firing of short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea on May 8, continuing its pattern of provocative weapons tests. Yonhap News Agency Reuters

AFRICA

Tanzania restricts internet after hackers compromise X government accounts. Tanzania curbed access to the internet on Wednesday after several government accounts on X (formerly Twitter) and YouTube were hacked. The hackers falsely claimed the country's president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, had died, using compromised accounts, including those of the police, the Tanzania Revenue Authority, and the Tanzania Investment Center. The hackers also posted pornographic images. While the government has regained control of the accounts, access to X was blocked on major networks, prompting users to turn to VPNs. The incident occurred shortly after a court hearing in the treason case of opposition leader Tundu Lissu, raising political tensions. Bloomberg Associated Press

A look at South Sudan, where the US is accused of quietly sending migrants. Washington is under scrutiny for allegedly deporting migrants from countries like Vietnam and Cuba to South Sudan, a nation facing severe instability and the threat of renewed civil war. A judge has demanded answers from the Trump administration, which has not confirmed the migrants' destination. South Sudanese officials say no deportees have arrived and promise to send any non-citizens back. Citizens fear that accepting foreign deportees, some with criminal records, could worsen crime. This incident follows past U.S. pressure on South Sudan, including visa revocations and reduced aid, despite the country’s fragile peace and humanitarian needs. Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has faced ongoing conflict, weak governance, and a faltering peace deal. Tensions between President Kiir and rival Riek Machar, complicated by ethnic divisions, threaten further violence. With rising insecurity and limited resources, many question whether Juba can handle deportees sent from the U.S. Associated Press

Families mourn and call for probe after Malian soldiers accused of massacre. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has accused Malian soldiers of executing at least 22 civilians earlier this month in the village of Diafarabé in central Mali, a region plagued by conflict with Al-Qaeda-linked militants. Witnesses, including families and local leaders, said soldiers seized men from a market and later buried them in two mass graves. The victims, mostly ethnic Fulani, were allegedly targeted during a military operation. HRW and local residents have called for an independent investigation, expressing distrust in a military-led probe due to past failures to ensure accountability. Similar abuses have been linked to both the Malian army and Russian Wagner Group forces, particularly under the current military junta. Associated Press

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

OpenAI to Buy AI Device Startup from Apple Veteran Jony Ive in $6.5 Billion Deal. OpenAI is acquiring io, a hardware startup co-founded by legendary Apple designer Jony Ive, in a $6.5 billion all-stock deal, marking its largest acquisition. The move brings Ive and his team, including ex-Apple talent, into OpenAI to create a new generation of AI-powered consumer devices. Ive, best known for designing the iPhone and iPod, will lead OpenAI’s hardware and design strategy through his design firm LoveFrom, which will remain independent. The first product from this collaboration is expected in 2026 and is described by CEO Sam Altman as a “totally new kind of thing” that could redefine how users interact with AI. The deal signals OpenAI’s ambition to bypass Apple and Google by building its own AI-focused hardware platform. It also puts pressure on Apple, which lags in the AI race. The new OpenAI hardware unit will include around 55 engineers from io and be overseen by product vice president Peter Welinder. Bloomberg Axios Wall Street Journal Reuters

Chinese military newspaper urges PLA to develop ways to target adversaries’ AI systems. China's military newspaper, the PLA Daily, has urged the country's armed forces to develop methods of undermining the data and computing capacity of adversaries, focusing on opponents’ AI-powered systems for combat planning and decision making. The article described the PLA's ability to counter AI-based combat skills as an emerging area of warfare that will be critical to future success. Three main facets of an adversary's AI system, the article pointed out, have particular targeting potential — data, algorithms, and computing capacity. Data can be "polluted" or disrupted during a conflict to weaken the accuracy of an opponent's language models. Another potential vulnerability for exploitation involves the "logical deception" of algorithms, to corrupt operational capabilities, such as causing drones swarms to perform erratically. The article also addressed compromises of an enemy's computing capacity by amplifying the "noise" – caused by overloads of data such as images, audio, video, and electromagnetic fields – systems must process. South China Morning Post

Exclusive: Tech race with China is top intel priority, deputy CIA director says. The CIA's new leadership is prioritizing China, aiming to help U.S. companies retain a technological edge in fields like AI, semiconductors, biotech, and batteries, according to Deputy Director Michael Ellis. In an interview with Axios, Ellis described China as an unprecedented threat to U.S. security and outlined plans to restructure the agency accordingly. While Russia, Iran, and North Korea remain high priorities, the CIA will also focus more on counter-narcotics efforts. Ellis emphasized the need to modernize both the CIA’s tactics and workforce, calling for more staff with STEM backgrounds and greater collaboration with private sector innovators like Elon Musk. He framed impending staff cuts as a chance to reshape the agency and criticized past politicization and ideological distractions, echoing broader Trump-era critiques of the intelligence community. Axios

China says U.S. chip curbs may be countered with an anti-sanctions law against third parties. China's Commerce Ministry has issued a statement warning of legal repercussions if the U.S. enforces a ban on Chinese-made chips, especially from Huawei. The ministry said that Washington's policy "severely harms the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises and undermines China’s development interests." China's Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, which was enacted in 2021, says that entities involved in applying sanctions against the country can be prosecuted and pay compensation for losses. He Weiwen, a senior fellow at a Beijing-based think tank, said the anti-sanctions measure differs from earlier Chinese actions because it can be applied against third parties rather than specific U.S. firms. He added, “China must retaliate tit-for-tat to urge third countries to oppose the U.S. long-arm jurisdiction." South China Morning Post

Nvidia chief intensifies criticism of U.S. AI chip export curbs to China market. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has described U.S. export controls designed to limit China's access to AI chips as "a failure" that have incentivized Chinese rivals to accelerate development of their own products. He said Chinese AI researchers will make use of domestically produced chips with the added motivation of government support for their initiative. Speaking at the Computex trade show in Taipei, Huang pointed out the Nvidia had a 95 percent market share in China, which is now down to 50 percent. “The rest is Chinese technology," Huang said, "they have a lot of local technology they would use if they didn’t have Nvidia.” Referring to the now-rescinded U.S. AI Diffusion rule, Huang said, “if the U.S. wants to stay ahead, we need to maximize and accelerate our diffusion, not limit it.” Huang added that the company has no plans for another China-specific chip in the "Hopper" series, noting Nvidia has already "degraded the chip so severely." Financial Times Bloomberg

Western intelligence says GRU-linked ‘Fancy Bear’ hackers targeting transportation systems. A joint advisory warning issued by allied countries and intelligence agencies have identified Fancy Bear, a notorious Russian hacking unit also known as BlueDelta and APT28, as the threat actor behind a broad campaign targeting entities in over a dozen countries. The group is accused of attempted digital break-ins at multiple Western logistics and technology firms. All transportation modes — air, sea, and rail — have been impacted by the campaign directed at dozens of governments and commercial organizations. The hackers also are suspected of gaining unauthorized access to municipal traffic cams and private cameras to track material shipments to Ukraine. The hackers surveilled at least one industrial control system producer of components for railway management. Intelligence agencies specifically attributed the hacking operations to the “85th Main Special Service Center (85th GTsSS), military unit 26165” of Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU). The agencies tracked the campaign under a number of names, including Fancy Bear and APT 28. The U.K., U.S., Germany, France, Canada, Czechia, Poland, Australia, Estonia, Denmark and the Netherlands co-signed the advisory. The Record Reuters Politico EU

NATO official outlines alliance focus on bolstering space-based intelligence systems. Speaking at the annual GEOINT conference in St. Louis, Maj. Gen. Paul Lynch, deputy assistant secretary general for intelligence on NATO's military staff, said that NATO is enhancing its intelligence gathering and sharing capabilities, particularly in space capabilities. Lynch said the NATO member states are seeking improvements in intelligence collection and situational awareness across the domains of air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace. Lynch specifically referred to two key NATO initiatives, the “Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS)” program and the Strategic Space Situational Awareness System” (3SAS). Begun in 2023, APSS involves data-sharing from the national surveillance satellites of 17 member nations via a “virtual” constellation. The 3SAS program began at NATO Headquarters last spring. Taken together, Lynch said, the programs represent "the innovative work that NATO is doing to integrate the space domain into its capabilities development and maintain its information superiority within this domain.” BreakingDefense

EU issues new sanctions against Russian disinformation, hybrid warfare operators. The European Union has introduced a new package of sanctions directed at individuals and entities linked to Russian disinformation, sabotage, and espionage campaigns across Europe and Africa. Members of Russia's military intelligence unit, the GRU, are among those sanctioned along with individuals promoting Kremlin narratives through social media. The EU also has imposed sanctions on individuals spreading disinformation in Africa, including Viktor Lukovenko, the head of the African Initiative propaganda news agency, and Justin Tagouh, the head of the International Africa Media press group. In addition, the EU announced sanctions against entities involved in Russian hybrid warfare operations, such as Kremlin-backed drone and radio communications equipment manufacturers whose products are used by the Russian military, as well as entities and individuals involved in GPS signal jamming. The Record

UAE institute releases new Arabic-language AI model featuring regional dialects. Abu Dhabi's Technology Innovation Institute (TII) has released Falcon Arabic, a new Arabic-language AI model trained on a dataset spanning Modern Standard Arabic and regional dialects. TII claims the model matches the performance of systems up to 10 times its size. Falcon remains the leading offering from the UAE in its efforts to claim a place in the global AI race. However, it has struggled to keep up with advances from open-source competitors like Meta and China's DeepSeek. TII also launched Falcon H1, which it said outperforms Meta and Alibaba by reducing the computing power and technical expertise usually required to run advanced systems. The UAE is pursuing other ways to enter the AI boom, with the construction of a 5-gigawatt data center campus in Abu Dhabi and partnerships with Nvidia and French firms to establish Europe's largest AI data center campus. Bloomberg Reuters

OpenAI, Google and xAI battle for superstar AI talent, shelling out millions. The artificial intelligence industry is in a fierce talent war, with OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Elon Musk’s xAI offering multimillion-dollar compensation packages to a small pool of elite researchers driving breakthroughs in large language models. Some top OpenAI researchers earn over $10 million annually, while Google has reportedly offered $20 million packages with faster equity vesting. Amid growing departures, companies are using creative recruitment tactics, such as scouting theoretical physicists and quantum researchers. Despite generous offers, many top talents prioritize research freedom and mission alignment over money. Reuters

A Tech Hub’s Plan to Upgrade for the AI Age Runs into Trump’s Tariffs. Malaysia’s ambitions to become a global leader in advanced semiconductor manufacturing are being challenged by President Trump’s volatile trade policies. While the country has long benefited from U.S. tech investment, exporting $16.2 billion in chips to the U.S. last year, Trump’s recent 10% baseline tariffs and threats of a 25% blanket levy on semiconductor imports have created uncertainty. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has pushed back on U.S. pressure to choose sides in its rivalry with China. Malaysia's $250 million partnership with Arm Holdings and investment from Nvidia signal a determination to move up the value chain, but delays and rising costs from tariffs could slow progress. New York Times

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The Challenges – and Opportunities – of a ‘Golden Dome’ Defense System

DEEP DIVE – Donald Trump vowed Tuesday to finish building a “Golden Dome” defense shield before the end of his term that would protect the nation from incoming missiles and other threats. The president put the price tag at $175 billion; experts say the costs will probably exceed half a trillion dollars, and some doubt that the project can be completed before Trump leaves office. $25 billion for the initiative has been included in the budget bill that is currently awaiting approval by Congress.

President Trump issued an executive order on January 27 that tasked the Pentagon with building a “next-generation missile defense shield” to counter what the order called the “most catastrophic threat facing the United States” – hypersonic weapons and other advanced aerial systems.

The Golden Dome project was inspired by Israel’s “Iron Dome” shield, which the U.S. helped build, and which has proved essential for that country’s defense against rocket fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and in last year’s unprecedented Israeli exchange of fire with Iran. But Israel is roughly the size of New Jersey, and experts say the U.S. will have to make choices about which areas of the country to protect, what elements to use in the system, and how much it can afford to spend to build it.

Experts also note that the nature of the threat is very different from what Israel is up against; here the risk is less from close-range rockets and missiles, and more from highly sophisticated long-range missiles that might come from China, Russia, or North Korea.

Chief Pentagon Spokesman and Senior Advisor Sean Parnell told The Cipher Brief this week that the Department of Defense "has developed a draft architecture and implementation plan for a Golden Dome system that will protect Americans and our homeland from a wide range of global missile threats." He added that the department "has gathered the brightest minds and best technical talent available to review a full range of options that considers current U.S. missile defense technology and cutting-edge innovation to rapidly develop and field a dependable umbrella of protection for our homeland."

The Cipher Brief spoke about the Golden Dome project with Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld (Ret.), former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Carlton Helig, a fellow with the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security. They addressed the Golden Dome project, the nature of the threats it is meant to counter, and the costs and feasibility of such a system.

Their comments have been edited for length and clarity.

THE EXPERTS

The theory behind the “Golden Dome”

Adm. Winnefeld: When most people think of this, they think of the Iron Dome, they think about what Israel has done in cooperation with U.S. industry to protect themselves from rocket attacks from Hezbollah, Hamas, and the like. This is not that. It's really a metaphor. And I'm reminded of the adage: take Trump seriously, but not literally. What he means is a system to protect the United States from ballistic missile attacks, cruise missile attacks, hypersonic missile attacks. And that's a pretty ambitious project, but as a former NORTHCOM commander, I'm happy to see it get a little more attention than it's been getting.

It's a massive area to defend if you want to try to defend the whole [territory of the U.S.]. And clearly, we're going to have to make choices on critical infrastructure, the national capital region, New York City, major metropolitan areas, major defense areas, potentially nuclear power plants, that sort of thing. And it's going to be very hard to defend all of that. But that doesn't mean you should defend none of that. So we've got to make some choices.

Bowman: Every president since 9-11 has talked about how homeland defense is the number one national security priority. And that makes sense, of course – if you don't protect your home, then what are you doing?

As a candidate, President Trump was impressed by the Israeli Iron Dome system. And it is an impressive system. Its effectiveness has ranged somewhere between 90 and 95 %. But it's designed to protect a country the size of New Jersey against rocket threats. That's obviously very different than protecting a country that spans a continent against cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles.

The idea here is, let's protect ourselves as much as possible. But if we set unrealistic goals, we're going to fail. And let's be clear, this is not going to protect us against every ICBM coming in from China and Russia. That is not within the capability of what we can currently achieve, as nice as that would be. For that, we're going to rely on a modern version of MAD, mutual assured destruction – [the Cold War doctrine] that says to China or Russia, if you attack us with a large-scale nuclear attack using intercontinental ballistic missiles, we will retaliate in such a way that you will regret having done that.

The nature of the threats

Haelig: We're talking ballistic missiles, we're talking hypersonic weapons, and cruise missiles, which are semi-stealthy and harder to engage. We're talking aircraft, and all of these have different threat vectors. They require different defensive measures. What you may be able to engage with a space-based laser or some sort of kinetic vehicle is not going to be as effective at targeting a much lower-flying, much slower, much harder-to-see cruise missile that might be coming across the horizon.

So part of the issue is trying to identify what the Golden Dome Missile Defense System is really intending, and how it prioritizes those different threats that it's intending to engage.

Adm. Winnefeld: There's a multi-population of threats that are out there. Obviously, there's the classic intercontinental ballistic missile threat, which is what Ronald Reagan was thinking about when he put together what was known as the Star Wars system. That's a very difficult threat to defeat, particularly if it comes from a very sophisticated adversary like Russia, because there are all kinds of penetration aids and the like, and just sheer mass. It's very, very hard to defend against that.

What that evolved into was the ground-based interceptor program that is our current missile defense program, and which was intended to be used against Iranian or North Korean threats or an accidental launch from Russia, something along those lines. It just didn't have the capacity to handle a massive ICBM attack from Russia.

Obviously hypersonic missiles are another threat, and something that has been in the news quite a lot. They're very difficult to counter. They're hard to see. They can maneuver; they're very fast. And so there's a big effort involved in trying to take those on – something called the Glide Phase Interceptor Program, which is just now starting up. And then there are the potential rogue threats you hear about, like a container on a merchant ship off the coast with more of an intermediate-range ballistic missile, or short-range ballistic missile.

Bowman: The reality is that our adversaries have been sprinting to field capabilities to threaten us here at home. And that includes – as your older audience will remember – the Cold War and how we had Soviet ICBMs, nuclear-tipped ICBMs to worry about.

But today, in addition to those nuclear-tipped ICBMs, we also have Iran and North Korea increasingly getting in the mix. And we have Russia and China developing and fielding hypersonic weapons, and increasingly cruise missiles that can threaten us here at home.

So we have the old Cold War ICBM and nuclear threats, and we have this new family of weapons – hypersonic weapons that obviously travel at high speeds, but also maneuver and are hard to detect based on their flight profile. And you have cruise missiles, which by definition, unlike a ballistic missile that travels in a ballistic trajectory, fly lower. And the first step to defeating an incoming missile is seeing it, detecting it. And if you can't detect it, you can't kill it.

And so this creates all sorts of problems for the United States. The reality is that we have near-zero ability as a country to detect cruise missile threats coming into our country other than a small portion of Washington, DC. So if a major adversary like China or Russia were to decide to attack us with cruise missiles, the first most Americans would know about it is when the explosions start. And that's not great. So when you combine that with the existing ballistic missile threat and you combine that with the hypersonic vehicle threat that I've talked about, what we have is an American homeland that is less than secure.

One quick related point: your audience will remember 2023 and the embarrassment associated with the Chinese balloon. We were apparently unaware of this big, massive white balloon flying into our airspace. What explains that? Well, we have all these different sophisticated radars that are tuned to look for certain things, flying at certain speeds of certain altitudes. But if you have something flying at a different speed, even a slower speed or at a different altitude, the algorithms, if you will, weren’t tuned to pick that up. And that's one of the reasons why we were so surprised as a country with the balloon. It helps you begin to understand some of the challenges associated with these cruise missiles.

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The elements of “Golden Dome”

Adm. Winnefeld: First of all, we have to make sure we pay attention to the detection side of this. Some of these threats are very hard to see using traditional infrared, something like a cruise missile launched from the sea or a hypersonic threat. So there are efforts going on, space development agencies doing the proliferated war-fighter piece. We need to accelerate those. You can't shoot something if you can't see it. For the more traditional ICBM and MRBM threats, we have radars that can generally see those in time, as we saw with the defense of Israel. But those other emerging threats, the hypersonics and the like, are tougher. So that's point one, is to get the detection piece there.

Another one is, we talk a lot about directed energy. And the first thing that people think about when they hear directed energy is lasers. And lasers have a problem, or several problems. One, it's very hard to get the power into them that they need in order to actually take out a serious ICBM or MRBM threat. Another is that they don't like bad weather. They don't like to penetrate clouds. They also have to dwell on the target for a certain amount of time.

It's more likely that the type of directed energy we're going to use is what I call ultra-high-power microwaves. There are high-power microwave systems out there that can take out little drones, and there's a million little startups that are doing that. And those are important, and they're nice on the battlefield, and if you're going to take out a serious ballistic missile threat, you can actually do it with ultra high-power microwaves, but it takes a certain type of technology that we have, but we need to accelerate. And it's just a quick shot. And it doesn't take much electrical power to do it because it's such a short pulse that goes out there.

And then there's a big vibe out there put out by some of the small startups, the sort of “tech bros” that say the defense primes are history, they're obsolete, we're the future. And in some small areas, that's actually probably true. It's important that those people be nurtured. But this is big-boy business here. It's not a little drone with some AI in it that's going to do missile defense. This is very difficult, very complex, has to be done at scale, and you need people who can produce that.

Bowman: There's going to be a space-based element. You’ve got to get up high, to get your detectors and your radars up high, so you can look down and see the threats – both cruise and hypersonic and additional ballistic missiles. And we've got to look for cost-saving things that get the job done in a less expensive way. And so we have got to look at directed energy – that's an element here, not just kinetic capability. And we’ve got to use dirigibles and unmanned aerial vehicles, which can give us some of these detection interception capabilities at a lower cost.

Haelig: The timing will depend on how much they would patch together existing systems. It would not be quick. They would have to build a lot of bespoke systems in order to coordinate the finding and fixing of the threats and prioritizing what aspects of that defensive system are going to be used to engage what threats when and how. It would not be a short time frame whatsoever. And then you run to the question of, if this thing got halfway toward being built, does the future administration say, you know what, this is an unnecessary sum of money, we're going to abandon this, and then you have all that sunk funding that you've already put into the system that is now largely moot because you're not going to be continuing onward with it?

Feasibility – and costs

Adm. Winnefeld: The supply chain is hard – and industry is taking a lot of hits in the news these days because we just can't build things fast enough. And it's really important to remember that industry sizes itself for what the government asks it to do. It's not going to put out extra assembly lines out there and a massive supply chain if there's no possibility that someone's going to buy what's produced there. So there is a little bit of lag time, but with multi-year contracts, which is what gives industry the confidence it needs in order to put together large supply lines with the people involved, with the supply chain involved – that is where you have to go here if you're going to be serious about stepping up the sizing of this thing.

Bowman: I think to succeed, we have to put our money where our mouth is. [In the past], we just didn't invest the way we should in air and missile defense. So, big surprise: if you don't invest in it, you're not going to have enough, either to protect your homeland or protect our forward-positioned US forces.

If you want to start to get a sense of the scale here, this is kind of what one of my colleagues has called a Manhattan-level type of project. You have this $25 billion working its way through Congress. It is just a drop in the bucket. It's a down payment, like a down payment on a house – at most it's 20%. There's a lot more that comes after it. And let's be clear: I think this is worth doing. There's ways to make it more affordable, but this is going to be very, very expensive. But I think it's worth doing, to protect Americans first and foremost at home.

Haelig: The United States and other countries have been chasing overall national missile defense or kind of homeland defense systems now since really the dawn of the missile age. And at no point in time have any of those systems been truly impenetrable. So I think there's this question of, are we, as the American public being sold a false bag of goods? Is this something that we can achieve? And on that, I'll only say that the Reagan administration tried – and it didn't necessarily work out. They ended up abandoning the plan because of the costs associated with it. You can do anything if there's enough money, but as we all know, there's only a finite amount of money, even towards defense, that the White House and Congress are to be able to agree on.

What the administration has been saying [about costs] seems to be including just the things that they are adding specific to this program, this Golden Dome program. But in order to do the tracking of missiles, the overhead infrared systems that we've had in place now for decades to detect the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles for nuclear missile defense, those are very expensive. We're actually in the process now of developing and eventually deploying the next generation of those systems.

And the dollar figure on those is eye watering. I don't have the exact figure off the top of my head, but suffice to say that it is an order of magnitude greater than the figure that the administration is putting out there just for the Golden Dome. So it's not just about how much Golden Dome is going to cost, but it's also about how much are all these enabling systems going to cost in order to make that effective.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

Chinese Ghost Machines: The Hidden Risk in Australia's Energy Infrastructure

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The recent revelations from Reuters and other U.S. news outlets, detailing the discovery of "rogue" communication devices embedded within Chinese-manufactured solar power inverters, are far more than just another cybersecurity scare; they represent a chilling, tangible manifestation of a threat Australia has been grappling with in increasingly abstract terms.

For a nation like Australia, deeply enmeshed in global supply chains for critical technologies and navigating an ever-more complex geopolitical landscape, the potential presence of these "ghost machines" in the very hardware that underpins our transitioning energy infrastructure is a profound national security challenge. This isn't simply about data breaches or intellectual property theft, as profoundly serious as those are; this is about the potential for remote, physical sabotage of essential services, a threat that strikes at the heart of national sovereignty and resilience.

The technical nature of this threat is insidious. These undisclosed devices, including cellular radios, create undocumented communication channels that can circumvent existing protective security measures. Their purpose, U.S. officials and security experts suggest, could be to allow remote manipulation or disabling of power grids, potentially triggering widespread blackouts or even physical destruction of energy infrastructure. One source ominously told Reuters, "That effectively means there is a built-in way to physically destroy the grid".

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The fact that Chinese companies are global leaders in inverter manufacturing and are required by Chinese law to cooperate with their government's intelligence agencies, adds a deeply unsettling layer of state-sponsored risk. An incident in November 2024 discovered by U.S. Energy officials and cybersecurity officials, where solar power inverters in the U.S. and elsewhere were reportedly disabled from China, serves as a troubling precedent.

Australia's vulnerability to such hardware-based threats is acute. Our energy sector is undergoing a rapid transition, increasingly reliant on imported technologies and complex, interconnected digital systems. While much of our cybersecurity focus has rightly been on software vulnerabilities and network intrusions typically in government, defence and more traditional sectors such as banking and telecoms, the compromise of physical hardware components in the renewable energy sector introduces a more fundamental and difficult-to-detect risk. The Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC) consistently reports that critical infrastructure is a prime target for malicious actors, including state-sponsored entities.

The "attacker-as-a-service" model further democratises sophisticated attack capabilities, meaning even non-state actors could potentially leverage such embedded vulnerabilities if their existence became known.

This discovery must be viewed through the lens of escalating geopolitical competition, particularly the U.S.-China tech rivalry. The strategic pre-positioning of capabilities that could be used to disrupt critical infrastructure aligns with documented tactics by state-backed actors, such as the Volt Typhoon operation.

As former U.S. National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers warned, "We know that China believes there is value in placing at least some elements of our core infrastructure at risk of destruction or disruption". This is not just about espionage; it's about coercive leverage and the potential to project power in non-kinetic ways, blurring the lines of conflict in what some analysts term "geocriminality". For Australia, a key U.S. ally and a nation with its own complex relationship with China, the implications are direct and demand a clear-eyed assessment.

Canberra has not been idle. The 2023-2030 Australian Cyber Security Strategy, the landmark Cyber Security Act 2024, and ongoing amendments to the Security of Critical Infrastructure (SOCI) Act all signify a commitment to bolstering national cyber defences. The new Act's provisions for mandatory security standards for smart devices and the establishment of a Cyber Incident Review Board are steps in the right direction.

However, the "ghost machine" revelations, brought to light by media organizations, expose potential limitations. As ASPI analysts have previously noted in the context of software vulnerabilities, Australia "is making progress, but not quickly enough to keep pace" with the rapidly evolving threat landscape.

The challenge is exponentially greater when the threat is embedded in the hardware itself. "Secure-by-design" principles, a cornerstone of the new strategy, are rendered moot if undisclosed components bypass those designs. The historical ineffectiveness of voluntary measures, such as the 2020 IoT Code of Practice, underscores the need for robust, mandatory, and verifiable standards for all critical technology imports.

The path forward for Australia requires a paradigm shift in how we approach supply chain security for critical infrastructure.

Firstly, there must be an urgent, comprehensive audit of existing critical infrastructure components, particularly those sourced from high-risk vendors, to identify similar hardware vulnerabilities. This is a monumental task, but the alternative – operating critical systems with unknown backdoors – is untenable.

Secondly, Australia must accelerate efforts to build sovereign capabilities and diversify supply chains for critical technologies, even if this involves co-development with trusted international partners. The recent AIIA 2025 Digital State of the Nation survey highlighted industry concerns about underinvestment in this area.

Thirdly, our regulatory and inspection regimes for imported critical technologies need significant strengthening, moving beyond paper-based compliance to include rigorous physical and technical verification.

This is not a challenge Australia can face alone. Deepened intelligence sharing and collaborative research with Five Eyes partners and other like-minded nations on hardware vulnerabilities and supply chain integrity are essential.

The "ghost machines" are a potent reminder that in an era of strategic competition and technological entanglement, vigilance cannot be outsourced, and trust must be rigorously verified. The security of Australia's critical infrastructure, and indeed its national sovereignty, depends on it.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief

Open Source Report for Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Wednesday, May 21, 2025. 8:15 AM EST

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here’s a look at today’s headlines, broken down by region of the world.

THE TOP HEADLINES

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Trump’s appoints new leader for $175 billion ‘Golden Dome’ anti-missile project

EU, Britain go ahead with new Russia sanctions over Ukraine without waiting for US

Kremlin says Russia will defend its ships in the Baltic Sea with all means available

New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities

Multiple Russian government services impacted by DDoS cyberattack ‘from abroad.’

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Opinion: Counter-AI May be the Most Important AI Battlefront. Jennifer Ewbank, former Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for Digital Innovation from 2019 to 2024, warns that the most critical artificial intelligence challenge is not innovation, but defense. Drawing on her experience leading one of the world’s most secure digital ecosystems, she argues that counter-AI—protecting AI systems from adversarial manipulation—is the silent, high-stakes battlefield of our time. Adversarial machine learning (AML) tactics such as data poisoning, evasion attacks, and model inversion already threaten military drones, financial systems, and facial recognition tools. These threats often go undetected, altering AI behavior without changing code. Ewbank stresses that current U.S. defenses are inadequate and fragmented, hindered by workforce gaps and institutional silos between AI developers and security teams. She calls for a unified, proactive strategy involving government, industry, and academia to secure AI infrastructure. Ultimately, Ewbank argues, the nation that masters counter-AI will safeguard not just systems, but democratic freedoms themselves, as AI increasingly mediates information, decisions, and civic life. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: As Negotiations Over Ukraine Drag On, What Can Putin Stand to Lose? Retired Central Intelligence Agency senior executive Mark Kelton compares Vladimir Putin to Joseph Stalin, particularly in how both leaders leveraged control, propaganda, and fear to sustain power during wartime. As Ukraine war negotiations stall, Kelton argues that Putin, now gaining ground militarily, is unlikely to negotiate in good faith until he secures minimal territorial objectives—namely, full control over four Ukrainian regions illegally annexed in 2022. Kelton notes that, much like Stalin at Yalta, Putin will let battlefield developments dictate terms. He warns that appeals from figures like Pope Leo XIV or President Donald Trump are unlikely to influence Putin, who sees concessions as weakness. Kelton anticipates drawn-out talks filled with stalling tactics and deceptive promises, emphasizing the need for stronger sanctions and military aid to force Russia to the table. Without real pressure, Putin will continue the war until he can claim a “victory” to justify his aggression. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Trump’s appoints new leader for $175 billion ‘Golden Dome’ antimissile project. President Trump has appointed Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein to lead the development of a $175 billion "Golden Dome" missile defense system, an ambition project aimed at protecting the U.S. from advanced threats like hypersonic and low-flying missiles. Modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome but using different technology, the system would integrate ground-based interceptors, a network of satellites, and new tech. Guetlein, a four-star general experienced in space operations, compared the project’s scale to the Manhattan Project and underscored its complexity, as well as the need for interagency cooperation. Trump announced the plan on Tuesday alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and said he hopes to complete key parts of the “super technology” before his term ends, with the possible involvement of allies like Canada. While the Congressional Budget Office estimates total costs could reach $831 billion, Republicans propose an initial $25 billion in the next budget. Defense officials have briefed Trump, who instructed them to prioritize elements that can be finished quickly. Companies like SpaceX, Palantir, and Anduril are being considered for contracts. Wall Street Journal Politico BBC Reuters Axios

To Combat China, U.S. Wants Its Friends to Do More. U.S. military leaders and Asia-Pacific allies are warning of a growing threat from China, urging stronger regional cooperation to counter Beijing's military buildup. At a recent summit in Hawaii, officials stressed sharing intelligence, conducting joint exercises, and aligning command systems—many for the first time. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, described China’s aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan as “rehearsals, not exercises.” The Trump administration has prioritized Beijing as the top security challenge, deploying new forces and expanding coordination with allies like Japan and the Philippines. Tokyo has launched new counterstrike missile plans and created a joint command, while Taipei has developed early-warning systems, purchased U.S.-made NASAMS, heavily invested in missiles and sea mines, and stockpiled attack drones. The U.S. has bolstered its presence with additional mobile units and long-range precision missiles. However, challenges remain, including communication gaps and differing military doctrines among allies. Wall Street Journal

US military faces ‘readiness crisis’ to modernize as China advances: Pentagon. U.S. military leaders warned that China’s rapidly advancing military capabilities are outpacing America’s current readiness, prompting urgent calls to modernize and integrate manned and unmanned systems. At a Council on Foreign Relations event on Monday, officials stressed the need to counter China’s naval and technological expansion—especially as a possible conflict over Taiwan looms. The Pentagon is concerned by China’s vast shipbuilding advantage and growing drone programs. U.S. Navy leaders highlighted delays in shipbuilding and pushed for hybrid fleets using unmanned surface, underwater, and aerial systems. The Marine Corps prioritizes sensors and long-range precision weapons, while the Air Force is focusing on human-machine integration and adaptable systems for modern warfare. The Space Force warned that China is developing anti-satellite capabilities, threatening U.S. dominance in space. Meanwhile, the Coast Guard faces a severe readiness crisis after decades of underfunding. Despite these concerns, officials maintained that Washington retains critical qualitative military advantages over Beijing. South China Morning Post

General Atomics says both Air Force CCAs in ground testing, expected to fly this summer. General Atomics has announced that ground testing for its YFQ-42A collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) began on May 7, with its first flight expected this summer. The drone, derived from the XQ-67 Off-Board Sensing Station, is part of the U.S. Air Force's push to expand its unmanned aerial capabilities. CCAs are semi-autonomous drones designed to operate alongside crewed fighters like the F-35, conducting missions such as strike operations, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare. Anduril Industries’ YFQ-44A, formerly called Fury, also began ground testing this month. Both drones are part of the Air Force’s initial CCA development effort launched in April 2024. These aircraft are expected to have over 700 nautical miles of combat range and stealth similar to the F-35. The Air Force aims to acquire at least 1,000 CCAs and will base its first readiness unit at Beale Air Force Base in California. A final production decision between the two designs will be made in 2026. Defense News The War Zone The Aviationist

Hacker who breached communications app used by Trump aide stole data from across US government. A recent cyberattack against TeleMessage, the messaging platform used by former national security adviser Mike Waltz, compromised messages from over 60 U.S. government officials. The hacked data, reviewed by Reuters and provided by the nonprofit Distributed Denial of Secrets, included messages from disaster responders, diplomatic staff, customs officials, a White House staffer, and Secret Service members. While the leaked content appeared to contain no clearly classified material, some messages discussed travel plans for senior officials. The platform, designed to archive communications for regulatory compliance, was taken offline on May 5 after the breach. Federal agencies, including FEMA and CBP, downplayed the impact or declined detailed comment. Smarsh, the platform’s Portland-based owner, did not answer requests for comments about the leaked data. Cybersecurity experts warn that even without message content, the metadata alone presents a major counterintelligence risk. The breach comes in the wake of earlier scrutiny of Waltz’s messaging practices and raises further concerns about communication security within the Trump administration. Reuters

Rubio defends White House foreign policy at intense hearing, says U.S. is not withdrawing from the world. At a heated Senate hearing marked by shouting matches and outbursts from protestors, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio fiercely defended the Trump administration’s contentious foreign policy decisions amid harsh criticism from Senate Democrats and former colleagues. Once seen as a moderate, Rubio now faces accusations of abandoning democratic principles, enabling humanitarian crises, and defending President Trump’s transactional, isolationist agenda. Senators, including Chris Van Hollen and Jacky Rosen, expressed deep disappointment in Rubio’s transformation from advocate of foreign aid to enforcer of sharp cuts to USAID and diplomatic infrastructure. Rubio, also serving as national security adviser, claimed the administration’s actions were misunderstood, and not a retreat from global leadership. "I just hit 18 countries in 18 weeks," he said. "That doesn't sound like much of a withdrawal." He deflected concerns over Trump’s business entanglements, including a $400 million gift from Qatar and a crypto fundraising event. Rubio also justified policies prioritizing certain refugee groups over others and vowed to continue deporting foreign students “disrupting our higher education.” While Republicans on the committee praised Rubio’s “stamina” and leadership, Democrats accused him of enabling constitutional overreach and weakening American global influence. Washington Post Reuters U.S. Department of State NPR Associated Press

ODNI looking to reform contracting practices: Gabbard. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has announced efforts to reform the U.S. Intelligence Community’s procurement system, focusing on streamlining contracting, especially for open-source intelligence (OSINT). Speaking at the GEOINT Symposium this week, she criticized outdated procurement laws that hinder efficiency and block small businesses and startups from entering the field. Gabbard underscored reducing excessive contractor layers and opening access to innovative, cost-effective solutions. She also highlighted a major shift in intelligence priorities toward monitoring foreign cartels at U.S. borders. This requires improved coordination between national intelligence agencies and local law enforcement to avoid information silos and increase effectiveness. Additionally, Gabbard pledged to enhance the timeliness, objectivity, and relevance of intelligence products, citing widespread frustration among policymakers over delayed or biased reports. She stressed that intelligence must be delivered at “operational speed” to be useful for high-level decision-making. Breaking Defense

Emails show official pushed analysts to tweak intelligence so as not to challenge Trump’s gang claims. Newly revealed emails show that Joe Kent, the chief of staff to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, appeared to pressure analysts to revise an intelligence assessment to shield U.S. President Trump and Gabbard from criticism. The original February 26 report concluded that Venezuela’s government does not direct the Tren de Aragua gang, contradicting Trump’s March claim, which the administration used to justify mass deportations under the Alien Enemies Act. After media coverage exposed the discrepancy, Kent urged analysts to “rethink” the assessment, calling for edits that aligned more closely with Trump’s narrative. A link between the regime of leader Nicolas Maduro and Tren de Aragua was “common sense,” Kent asserted. Despite his efforts, the final April 7 memo still contradicts Trump’s claim and has sparked legal and political fallout. Most U.S. intelligence agencies dismissed evidence of Venezuelan government coordination with the gang as not credible. Although Kent celebrated the edited version and ordered it declassified, Gabbard later fired the memo’s authors, accusing them of bias. The episode has fueled concerns about the politicization of intelligence under the Trump administration. New York Times Reuters

Inside Kristi Noem’s Polygraph Operation. Under Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, DHS has escalated the use of polygraph exams to identify internal leaks—often of unclassified but embarrassing or disloyal information—sparking concerns of politicized surveillance. These exams, conducted by a TSA unit, have targeted employees across agencies like FEMA and ICE, including senior staff and authorized media spokespeople. Critics argue the exams, many seemingly random, are used to instill fear and suppress dissent, with some employees resigning or being placed on leave after testing. Senior officials, including Noem’s top advisor, Corey Lewandowski, have reportedly threatened employees with these tests. DHS insists the goal is to protect sensitive information and uphold national security, not to punish disloyalty. However, many view the practice as unprecedented and arbitrary. Legal experts, including whistleblower advocates, warn that the widespread use of polygraphs may violate federal protections. Meanwhile, similar leak crackdowns are underway in the Justice and Defense departments. The initiative reflects growing distrust within DHS leadership. Wall Street Journal

Biden's mental decline unnerved House Dems as early as 2023. A new book, Original Sin by journalists Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, reveals that several House Democrats saw signs of former President Biden’s cognitive and physical decline as early as 2023 but remained silent out of loyalty or fear. The book, based on over 200 interviews, details moments such as Biden appearing lethargic at a White House Christmas party and struggling with energy and speech during a 2023 trip to Ireland. Despite early concerns, Democrats only began publicly urging Biden to drop his 2024 reelection bid after his disastrous debate with Donald Trump. Internal polling and fears of electoral losses ultimately pushed more Democrats to act. The White House has denied any failure or cover-up, defending Biden's record. Still, the book highlights a deep rift between private concerns and public loyalty among Democratic leaders during Biden’s final years in office. Axios NPR

Trump proposal to repatriate Ukrainians, Haitians would use foreign aid funds. Draft documents examined by the Washington Post reveal that the Trump administration is planning to repurpose up to $250 million in foreign aid to fund the voluntary removal of migrants, including over 700,000 Ukrainians and Haitians, who fled conflict, violence, and instability. The initiative would bypass the UN-affiliated International Organization for Migration and potentially target others from war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen. Critics argue the plan is inhumane and misuses funds intended for refugee support. While the administration frames it as a cost-saving, self-deportation program—with $1,000 stipends for volunteers—opponents say it pressures vulnerable individuals to return to unsafe conditions. The plan also coincides with the dismantling of U.S. refugee resettlement programs and growing concerns over revoked Temporary Protected Status for certain groups. Human rights advocates and former officials have condemned the proposal, calling it unlawful and inconsistent with U.S. obligations to protect displaced populations fleeing violence. Washington Post

Venezuela Frees U.S. Air Force Veteran in Overture to Trump. Venezuela has released U.S. Air Force veteran Joseph St. Clair, an act seen as a goodwill gesture aimed at improving relations with the Trump administration. 33-year-old St. Clair, who was arrested in October near the Colombian border, was declared wrongfully detained by the State Department. His release, facilitated by Trump envoy Ric Grenell, comes amid broader negotiations involving oil sanctions and deportation cooperation. President Nicolás Maduro hopes the gesture will help persuade Trump to ease sanctions and allow Western oil companies, like Chevron, to continue operating in the country. Washington recently extended oil licenses for 60 days. However, some officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, oppose any moves that could bolster Maduro. St. Clair's release follows previous detainee releases and behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Wall Street Journal Associated Press Reuters CNN

Two top members of Mexico City mayor's inner circle assassinated in brazen attack. The targeted killing of two close aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada in a quiet, residential neighborhood has shattered the capital’s relative insulation from cartel violence, raising alarms about the reach of organized crime. The attack, carried out with professional precision on Tuesday morning, comes as President Claudia Sheinbaum faces mounting pressure to deliver on her promises to crack down on crime and drug trafficking. Despite touting record drug seizures and falling homicide rates, Sheinbaum’s administration has already recorded over 16,000 murders in seven months. These high-profile killings mirror past attacks, including a 2020 cartel ambush on current Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch. His expanded mandate under Sheinbaum reflects her departure from her predecessor’s passive "hugs, not bullets" strategy. The killings have shaken public confidence, prompting fears of deepening insecurity even in the capital and intensifying political pressure on Sheinbaum’s administration to prove that its security approach can counter Mexico’s entrenched violence. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press

How Congress could crush Trump’s Qatari plane gift. Lawmakers are mulling the actions they can take to prevent President Trump from accepting a controversial $400 million gift from Qatar. Trump’s plan to receive the luxury Boeing jet has sparked bipartisan backlash in Congress, with critics citing national security, ethics, and constitutional concerns. Democrats are exploring multiple ways to block or complicate the deal, including amendments to the must-pass defense bill, standalone legislation barring federal funds for the aircraft, and a resolution invoking the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause. Senate Democrats are also considering holding up Pentagon nominees and pressuring Qatar by attempting to block a $1.9 billion arms sale. The controversy centers on the optics and risks of a foreign government gifting an aircraft to a sitting president, with lawmakers arguing it could be seen as a “flying bribe.” While many proposals face long odds in a Republican-controlled Congress, the issue has created political discomfort, forcing the White House to weigh whether the jet is worth the mounting scrutiny and legislative resistance. Politico

Pentagon chief orders review into ‘disastrous’ 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has launched a new review of the U.S. military’s chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, aiming to hold senior military leaders accountable for the deadly operation that left 13 U.S. troops and 170 civilians dead. Unusually, the review will be led by Hegseth’s chief spokesman, Sean Parnell, a combat veteran, and joined by former Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller, who was punished for publicly criticizing military leadership after the Kabul airport bombing. Hegseth's choice reflects mounting distrust in the military’s ability to investigate itself. The review will likely focus narrowly on the execution of the withdrawal and not address the 2020 Trump-Taliban deal or the collapse of the Afghan military. Hegseth blames the Biden administration for the withdrawal’s failures and has implied that military leaders should have resigned in protest rather than carry out the plan. Critics warn that the review may sidestep broader, systemic failures spanning multiple administrations. New York Times Bloomberg Reuters The Hill

Republicans accuse Harvard of collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party. Republicans in Congress have accused Harvard University of collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), training sanctioned Chinese paramilitary groups, and engaging in “dual-use” research with Chinese military-linked institutions. A letter from top GOP lawmakers highlights concerns about Harvard’s ties to Chinese universities connected to the repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang and to the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), which is under U.S. sanctions. The letter also accuses Harvard of working with Chinese scientists involved in Iranian military projects and controversial organ transplant research. Lawmakers claim these partnerships pose national security and ethical risks and warned that such activities may threaten the Ivy League university’s tax-exempt status. Harvard has declined to comment. The controversy adds to broader scrutiny from the Trump administration, which has also accused the university of fostering antisemitism due to pro-Palestinian activism, amid intensifying tensions over foreign influence in U.S. academic institutions. The Times The Harvard Crimson

Senator reveals U.S. migrant detentions at Guantanamo Bay cost $100,000 per person daily. Senator Gary Peters blasted the Trump administration’s use of Guantanamo Bay to detain migrants, revealing that housing costs an unusually high $100,000 per detainee per day—vastly more than the $165 daily cost at U.S. immigration facilities. During a Senate hearing, Peters called the practice wasteful, especially since detainees are often flown back to the U.S. at taxpayer expense. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, defending a proposed $44 billion DHS budget increase for 2026, said she was unaware of the Guantanamo costs. About 70 migrants are currently held there. Republican Senator Rand Paul also raised concerns about excessive spending, questioning the need for $46.5 billion for new border walls when illegal crossings have declined under Trump. The hearing highlighted bipartisan unease over the administration’s immigration strategy and its fiscal impact. Reuters The Independent

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump's deference to Putin stunned European leaders on call. After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump held a follow-up call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and five European leaders, who were hoping to discuss a ceasefire. Instead, Trump said Putin had merely agreed to negotiate, and Trump ruled out further U.S. sanctions for now—remarks that reportedly stunned several participants. Trump said the U.S. would not be directly involved in negotiations and downplayed expectations, telling reporters hours later in the Oval Office, “This was a European situation.” Zelensky, who had asked Trump before the Putin call to demand a ceasefire and threaten penalties, expressed concern that the Kremlin leader’s position hadn’t changed. He pointed out to Trump that Putin had previously agreed to negotiate, noting the first round of ceasefire talks took place on Friday in Istanbul. Trump didn't directly respond, the sources said. Trump said Russia would soon present a written “peace memo.” European leaders pushed for broader international involvement, but Trump favored direct Ukraine-Russia talks, proposing the Vatican as a venue. Asked about next steps, Trump replied vaguely, “I don’t know,” reinforcing allies’ fears that the U.S. is stepping back from leadership. Axios

Zelensky’s Attempt to Get Trump on His Side Falls Flat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made repeated concessions to align with U.S. President Donald Trump’s vision for ending the war with Russia, including agreeing to an unconditional cease-fire, accepting a U.S.-backed minerals deal, and participating in peace talks proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, Trump has shifted toward endorsing Putin’s stance that negotiations must precede any cease-fire and has resisted imposing new sanctions when Russia rejected a proposed 30-day truce. Zelensky’s diplomatic outreach has yielded little, with Trump appearing to accept a future Russian memorandum as a superficial sign of progress. Putin, meanwhile, demands a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine and control over occupied territory. Analysts warn that Putin is using the process to extract further concessions while remaining committed to his broader geopolitical aims. Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argues that Putin sees Ukraine’s fate as existential and is prepared to prolong the war indefinitely to fulfill his maximalist objectives. Wall Street Journal

Trump’s New Position on the War in Ukraine: Not My Problem. President Trump appears to be stepping back from U.S. leadership in the Russia-Ukraine war, signaling a shift in policy after Monday’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite previously vowing to broker peace swiftly and threatening sanctions, Trump is now encouraging Ukraine and Russia to negotiate independently, backing away from coordination with European allies pursuing new sanctions. Trump reportedly downplayed further penalties on Moscow, citing potential U.S. business opportunities with Russia once the war ends. This retreat from diplomatic pressure has frustrated Kyiv and widened the rift within NATO, undermining a unified Western stance. Trump’s shift is viewed by European leaders as a strategic win for Putin, who seeks to fracture allied unity. Though U.S. officials insist existing sanctions and aid remain, critics see the change as appeasement. Trump has framed future U.S.-Russia trade as a priority, signaling economic normalization over sustained support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and resistance to Russian aggression. New York Times

Ukrainians Brace for a Longer War as Trump Backs Off Cease-Fire Call. As President Trump retreats from pushing for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine, many Ukrainians are bracing for a prolonged war. Civilians across the country, from bombarded Sumy to the front lines near Kharkiv, are expressing deep frustration and resignation, viewing Trump’s diplomacy as disconnected from the brutal reality they endure daily. Trump’s failure to pressure Russia and his pivot to letting Ukraine and Russia negotiate alone have left Ukrainians feeling abandoned but not deterred. Ukrainian soldiers and citizens alike see Russia’s diplomacy as a smokescreen for intensified offensives, with Moscow escalating attacks under the cover of talks. Despite battlefield losses and exhaustion, Ukrainians are preparing for a long fight, increasingly reliant on European aid, domestic weapons production, and their own resilience. As one veteran put it, “With or without Trump, the war will end,” but Ukraine must endure whatever it takes to secure its future independently. New York Times

If the war in Ukraine were simply a border conflict that escalated, then you could more quickly get both sides together to form some common cause to end the war. But when we see Russia refusing to engage in a real ceasefire, and we see it continue to try to shape and influence the negotiations with its red lines and demands for concessions, its clear what Putin’s goals are. We should not expect Russia to change its objectives now just because we’re asking them to come to the table.

The Cipher Brief

Analysis: Trump-Putin call on war in Ukraine is another blow to Kyiv and its allies. Ukraine and its European allies were left reeling after President Trump’s recent call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which he dropped support for an immediate 30-day cease-fire and signaled that resolving the war is now up to Kyiv and Moscow. This reversal dashed hopes in Kyiv and Europe that Trump might pressure Russia into meaningful peace talks. European diplomats, shocked by the shift, quickly rallied around Ukraine, announcing new sanctions on Moscow and pledging continued support. Still, concerns are mounting over waning U.S. engagement, especially with American military aid expiring this summer. Germany's defense minister called Putin’s strategy a stalling tactic. Ukraine, which relies heavily on U.S. weapons and intelligence, now faces deep uncertainty over future support. Allies fear Trump’s economic overtures to Russia could further undercut pressure on the Kremlin. Reuters

Europe races to keep Trump involved in Ukraine-Russia talks. Following President Trump’s Monday phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where he signaled a hands-off approach to Ukraine peace talks, European capitals scrambled into a diplomatic flurry to keep the U.S. engaged. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that America’s continued involvement is “crucial,” warning that disengagement only benefits Putin. On Tuesday, Zelensky spoke with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and other European leaders. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned Putin’s stalling tactics and urged more U.S. pressure. Diplomats are now working to coordinate joint positions with Kyiv and find a way to keep Trump from walking away. Financial Times

EU, Britain go ahead with new Russia sanctions over Ukraine without waiting for Trump. The European Union and the United Kingdom launched a new wave of sanctions against Russia, intensifying economic pressure amid growing concerns over a stalled peace process. The EU’s 17th sanctions package includes four coordinated sets targeting Russia’s shadow oil fleet, chemical weapons programs, human rights abuses, and hybrid threats. The most high-profile measures blacklist 189 vessels, including 183 oil tankers used to evade the G7’s $60-per-barrel crude price cap, bringing the total sanctioned fleet to 342. Major Russian energy firms such as Surgutneftegaz and shipping entities based in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Hong Kong were also sanctioned. Britain added 100 new sanctions, focused on financial and maritime entities aiding the Kremlin. While EU leaders signaled intent to lower the oil price cap and prepare an 18th round of sanctions, the U.S. has not followed suit. Brussels aims to force Russian President Vladimir Putin into serious peace talks. Reuters New York Times RFE/RL Reuters

Rubio says the US may impose sanctions on Russia if no progress on a peace deal. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday that the United States may impose new sanctions on Russia if there is no progress toward a peace deal with Ukraine. Defending President Trump’s recent two-hour call Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Rubio said that Trump believes threatening sanctions now could halt dialogue, arguing “there’s value in us being able to talk to them and drive them to get to the table.” Rubio denied the administration was soft on Russia, noting no sanctions had been lifted and U.S. military support for Ukraine continues. Democratic senators criticized the lack of pressure on Putin during the call and accused the administration of appeasement. Financial Times

Rubio says US, NATO seek more Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine. During Senate Foreign Relations Committee testimony on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the U.S. is actively working with NATO partners to locate additional Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine. However, he noted that no NATO country is willing to part with its Patriot batteries, and the U.S. cannot produce them fast enough to meet demand. Ukraine, which operates eight systems (two under repair), has urgently requested more to counter Russia’s escalating missile and drone attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered to purchase 10 more systems for $15 billion, but President Trump has dismissed the request. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine wants the G7 price cap on Russian oil lowered to $30 per barrel. On Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha called on the G7 nations to lower their price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60 to $30 per barrel, arguing it would undermine Russia’s war financing more effectively. Speaking in Brussels, Sybiha emphasized the need for tighter economic pressure. The European Union and the UK signaled support for reducing the oil cap, with EU officials reportedly considering a $50 limit. President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the measures, saying Russian oil revenues are a key pressure point. Reuters

Most Americans believe Putin is stalling peace talks, poll shows. A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll conducted online from May 14–15 found that over 60% of Americans believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling peace talks involving the United States. The survey showed that 62% support continued U.S. weapon deliveries to Ukraine and additional sanctions if Russia refuses to negotiate a peace deal. Only 34% believe Putin genuinely wants to end the war, compared to 62% who think President Volodymyr Zelensky does. Following President Trump’s Monday call with Putin, where no ceasefire was agreed, 59% of respondents said Trump is “not tough enough” on Putin, and 58% doubt he will successfully end the war. Kyiv Independent

Putin makes first visit to Kursk since Russia claimed to have recaptured the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited the Kursk region for the first time since Moscow claimed to have fully recaptured it from Ukrainian forces, Russian state news agency TASS reported Wednesday. The Kremlin said Putin met municipal leaders in the city of Kurchatov and toured the Kursk nuclear power plant, which is still under construction. However, TASS did not specify when the visit took place. Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into the region last August—the first foreign ground invasion of Russia since World War II—briefly capturing territory. Russia, aided by North Korean soldiers, has since fought to reclaim the area. Last month, Putin declared the region fully retaken. Kyiv, however, insists its forces are still operating there and views the area as a strategic bargaining chip. CNN

Russian missile attack kills Ukrainian servicemen in training. A Russian missile attack on a Ukrainian military shooting range killed six servicemen and wounded at least 10 more during training on Tuesday, Ukraine's national guard said on Wednesday, adding that the commander of the unit had been suspended. Russia's defense ministry had said on Tuesday that the missile attack on the training camp in the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine near the Russian border killed up to 70 Ukrainian service members, including 20 instructors. Reuters

Poland to try suspect in alleged Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky. Polish prosecutors announced Tuesday that a man identified as Pawel K. has been formally indicted for aiding Russian intelligence in an alleged plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Arrested in April 2024 through joint efforts by Polish and Ukrainian authorities, Pawel K. is accused of collaborating with Russia’s military intelligence and faces up to eight years in prison. He reportedly gathered intelligence on security at Poland’s Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport—a key hub for Western military aid to Ukraine. Polish officials say the case underscores growing threats from Russian espionage, which Moscow denies. Reuters

Russia sends 20,000 recently naturalized citizens to fight in Ukraine, top official says. Russia has sent 20,000 recently naturalized migrants to fight in Ukraine for failing to register for military service, Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin said Tuesday. Speaking at a legal forum, Bastrykin said law enforcement is conducting raids in migrant communities to catch draft evaders. This move reflects a broader crackdown on migrants as the Kremlin struggles to meet its manpower needs without resorting to another unpopular mass mobilization. In 2024, Russia passed a law allowing the revocation of citizenship for non-compliant naturalized citizens. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Occupation Update for Monday, May 19. Russia is intensifying its efforts to indoctrinate and militarize Ukrainian children in occupied territories, with the "Voin" training network taking custody of orphans in Donetsk Oblast and subjecting them to military instruction by Russian veterans. Russian authorities are also embedding pro-Russian Cossack organizations in occupied regions to indoctrinate youth, recruit for military service, and expand Moscow’s civil and military control. Meanwhile, the Russian Orthodox Church is consolidating its influence by assigning Kremlin-aligned clergy to oversee religious life in occupied Zaporizhia. Occupation authorities are coercing Ukrainian students into staffing Russian administrative bodies and working in state-run industries, often under threat of conscription. At the same time, Russian-backed youth programs are organizing mass “educational trips” to Russia to expose Ukrainian children to Soviet-style propaganda and anti-Ukrainian narratives. These actions collectively reflect a systematic campaign of cultural erasure, forced labor, and illegal militarization. Institute for the Study of War

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, May 19. Senior Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, continue to deny the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s government, despite President Vladimir Putin’s professed interest in peace talks. Medvedev's statements at a legal forum underscored Russia’s refusal to engage in meaningful negotiations, claiming Ukraine is a "failed state" and reiterating maximalist demands, including demilitarization and recognition of Russia’s illegal annexations. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed Colonel General Valery Solodchuk’s appointment as Central Military District commander, following leadership changes in Russia’s ground forces.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and in the Zaporizhia direction. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Kremlin says Russia will defend its ships in the Baltic Sea with all means available. Moscow warned on Wednesday that it would defend Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea using "all means" necessary after Estonia's failed attempt to seize a Russia-bound oil tanker suspected of violating Western sanctions. During the incident, Russia briefly flew a fighter jet into NATO airspace, according to Estonia. In response, the Kremlin detained a Greek-owned tanker that had recently left an Estonian port—though it was later released—raising fears of disruptions to vital Baltic shipping routes. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the incident demonstrated his country’s readiness to respond “harshly” to perceived threats, and that Moscow could take a wide range of actions within international law. Russia’s Foreign Ministry also accused NATO of aggressive behavior in the Baltic, claiming it endangered freedom of navigation. The exchange underscores growing maritime tensions as Western nations try to enforce sanctions and Russia defends its energy exports. Reuters

Russian fighter jet protects ‘shadow fleet’ vessel in first such move by Moscow, officials say. On May 13, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet entered Estonian airspace to escort the Jaguar, an unflagged oil tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, after Estonian forces attempted to inspect the vessel. It marked the first known use of Russian military force to shield a shadow fleet ship evading Western sanctions. The move, condemned by Estonian and NATO officials, was seen as Moscow openly tying itself to the fleet. NATO scrambled Portuguese F-16s in response. France and Estonia said the incident reflects growing Kremlin defiance and proof that sanctions are working. Germany hinted that new sanctions may follow. CNN

Trump wants the UK to boost defense spending to 3% by 2029. U.S. President Donald Trump is pressuring the UK to raise its defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2029, years earlier than planned, according to senior U.S. officials cited by The Times on Tuesday. Pentagon officials conveyed Trump’s preference to British counterparts, saying the current 2.3% level is inadequate. While the UK plans to target 2.5% by 2027, Trump’s team wants the 3% benchmark to be reached within the current parliamentary term, potentially costing £17.3 billion annually. British defense officials reportedly agree that more funds are needed sooner, while NATO is expected to adopt a higher overall spending target at its upcoming summit. However, views within the U.S. administration remain inconsistent, and Trump has not issued a final directive. The push comes amid concerns over the UK’s military readiness and strained force levels, with U.S. defense leaders also reviewing their own global command structure, including a potential consolidation of European and African military commands. The Times

Defense spending and the size of military forces across Europe have reduced significantly over many years... So I don’t blame the American government, whether it’s Trump or anybody else, having said for quite a long time, you guys have got to step up. But I am glad that European countries have caught that ball that’s been chucked to them. They are committing themselves to stepping up the amount of payment.

The Cipher Brief

Germany Offers to Take the Lead on Joint EU Air Defense Projects. Germany has offered to lead key EU defense projects in air, land, and marine systems as the bloc steps up efforts to boost its military capabilities in response to Russian aggression and uncertainty over U.S. support. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Germany is offering partners access to its negotiated industrial terms and highlighted Berlin’s expertise in air defense through the European Sky Shield Initiative. The EU is advancing a €150 billion defense fund and new fiscal rules that could mobilize €800 billion. Germany is also deploying a permanent tank brigade in Lithuania, the first such deployment abroad since WWII. The European Commission is preparing proposals to simplify defense procurement and production across member states, including easing regulatory and environmental restrictions to fast-track the building of new defense infrastructure. Bloomberg

Dutch Government Needs to Spend Up to €19 Billion More to Meet NATO Target. The Netherlands says it may need to increase defense spending by €16–€19 billion annually—about 3.5% of GDP—to meet expected new NATO targets. This follows NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s proposal for members to raise military spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2032, plus an additional 1.5% for related areas like cybersecurity. The Dutch estimate comes as NATO allies prepare for a June summit in The Hague amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who is demanding a 5% GDP defense commitment. Bloomberg

Ukrainian ex-politician shot and killed outside American school in Madrid. Former Ukrainian politician Andriy Portnov, 51, was shot and killed by unidentified gunmen outside a school in an affluent Madrid suburb on Wednesday. Portnov, a former aide to pro-Russian ex-President Viktor Yanukovich, fled Ukraine in 2014 and had faced investigations and U.S. sanctions. Police say the assailants shot him in the back and head before fleeing. The killing adds to a string of recent high-profile incidents involving Russians and Ukrainians in Spain since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Reuters Euronews The Guardian

Poland's far-right lays down demands to presidential hopefuls. Ahead of Poland’s June 1 presidential runoff, far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun—who together secured over 20% of the first-round vote—have issued conditions to frontrunners Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki in exchange for possible endorsements. Mentzen, who placed third, demanded that both candidates sign a declaration rejecting tax increases, sending Polish troops to Ukraine, and any further transfer of sovereign powers to the European Union, such as expanding EU authority over national legislation or fiscal policy. Trzaskowski, a centrist, risks alienating his pro-EU and left-leaning supporters if he concedes to far-right positions, while needing their voters to win. Reuters

Romanian far-right candidate Simion claims France interfered in election. Romanian far-right leader George Simion announced Tuesday he will challenge his loss in Sunday’s presidential runoff, alleging foreign interference. Simion, defeated by centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, claimed France, Moldova, and other actors manipulated institutions, media, and voter behavior to sway the outcome. He alleged €100 million was used in Moldova to buy votes and claimed irregularities, such as votes cast by the deceased. Simion also cited Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s claim that France sought to suppress conservative voices, urging the Constitutional Court to call Durov to testify. Despite low expectations of success, Simion called on citizens to file complaints. Politico EU The Guardian Associated Press

Election analysis reveals right-wing surge across Europe. Despite centrist wins in three major European elections on Sunday, far right groups gained ground, signaling a broader political shift. In Romania, centrist Nicușor Dan defeated far-right leader George Simion in a runoff, thanks to record turnout and strong diaspora and minority support. However, Simion’s rapid rise, following the annulled November election won by ultranationalist Călin Georgescu, underscored growing right-wing momentum. In Poland, liberal Rafał Trzaskowski narrowly led the first round against right-wing Karol Nawrocki. But far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun captured over 20% of the vote, making their support pivotal in the June 1 runoff. Meanwhile, in Portugal, the far-right Chega party surged to become the joint second-largest parliamentary force, gaining ground particularly in rural and post-communist southern regions. Though centrists avoided outright defeat, these elections revealed an emboldened and expanding hard-right presence across key European Union and NATO member states. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. New U.S. intelligence indicates Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, alarming U.S. officials amid President Donald Trump's diplomatic efforts with Tehran. While it is not clear whether Israel has made a final decision, intercepted communications and observed military preparations, such as air munition movements and exercises, suggest a possible imminent attack, multiple U.S. officials told CNN. The intelligence community is divided on whether this is a genuine prelude to action or a pressure tactic aimed at shaping the nuclear negotiations. Trump set a 60-day deadline in March for talks with Iran to succeed, which has now expired. Israel remains concerned that Trump may accept a deal allowing Iran to retain some uranium enrichment, prompting warnings from Israeli officials that they may act alone. However, U.S. support would be critical for a successful strike. Iran, weakened militarily and economically, sees the talks as unlikely to succeed, and a new round may occur in Europe soon. Washington remains committed to diplomacy for now. CNN Reuters

Iran faces U.S. without Plan B as nuclear red lines collide. Iran and the United States remain at an impasse in nuclear negotiations, with both sides holding firm on opposing red lines. Iran refuses to halt uranium enrichment or relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile, while the U.S. insists on a complete cessation of enrichment activities. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has dismissed U.S. demands as "excessive and outrageous," expressing skepticism about the success of the talks. Complicating matters, Iran faces severe economic challenges, including sanctions, energy shortages, and a declining currency, and lacks a clear alternative strategy should negotiations fail. While Tehran considers strengthening ties with China and Russia, both nations are currently preoccupied with their own geopolitical issues, limiting their capacity to support Iran. The U.S. and European allies have warned of reinstating U.N. sanctions if no agreement is reached, potentially triggering the "snapback mechanism" as early as August. Reuters

Iran's Khamenei slams 'outrageous' US demands in nuclear talks. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, criticized U.S. demands in nuclear negotiations as “excessive and outrageous,” expressing skepticism about the likelihood of a successful deal. He dismissed Washington’s insistence that Iran halt uranium enrichment, calling it illogical. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Deputy Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi echoed Khamenei’s concerns, warning that talks would collapse if the U.S. continued to oppose Iran’s domestic enrichment program. President Trump recently threatened severe consequences if Iran does not quickly accept a new deal. The negotiations remain stalled, with a potential fifth round tentatively proposed for Rome, but no date confirmed. Reuters Al Jazeera BBC

Israeli strikes kill dozens in Gaza as criticism of Israel grows. Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday killed at least 85 Palestinians in Gaza, including 18 people—some of them children—at two residential homes and a school sheltering displaced families. Over the past nine days, more than 500 people have reportedly been killed amid intensified Israeli military operations, which Israel says target Hamas militants using civilian areas for cover. The strikes occurred despite mounting international criticism, with Britain suspending trade talks with Israel and imposing sanctions, and EU leaders calling for a review of their trade relationship with Israel. The United Nations reports that no aid has yet been distributed following Israel’s easing of a blockade, though some trucks have entered Gaza. Ceasefire talks in Qatar appear to have stalled, and Israeli leaders have vowed to escalate the campaign. Meanwhile, Gaza’s humanitarian crisis deepens, with widespread hunger and displacement affecting nearly all of the enclave’s 2.3 million residents. Reuters Associated Press

Netanyahu Confronts New Political Dilemma as Allies Push for End to Gaza War. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting international pressure to end the Gaza war, as allies including the U.K., European Union, and U.S. express growing alarm over civilian casualties and humanitarian suffering. On Tuesday, Britain suspended trade talks with Israel, summoned its ambassador, and imposed sanctions on violent West Bank settlers, calling the Gaza offensive “monstrous.” The EU is reviewing its trade agreement with Israel, with 17 of 27 member states backing the move. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Minister David Lammy condemned Israel’s actions, including restrictions on aid and comments from far-right Israeli ministers advocating population displacement. The U.S., under President Donald Trump, has called for a ceasefire, further isolating Netanyahu. Aid access remains limited despite Israel’s recent concessions. With over 53,000 Palestinians killed since October 2023 and widespread hunger in Gaza, Netanyahu faces a dilemma: continue the war and risk diplomatic fallout—or stop and risk losing his governing coalition. Wall Street Journal Reuters Financial Times Politico EU Reuters

EU to Lift Economic Sanctions on Syria in a Bid to Bolster Stability. The European Union agreed on Tuesday to lift its remaining economic sanctions on Syria, following the United States’ similar move a week earlier, in a coordinated effort to stabilize the country after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The EU aims to support Syria’s reconstruction under its new leadership, led by President Ahmed al-Shara, despite concerns about sectarian violence and the country's fragile political direction. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized enabling Syrians to rebuild a peaceful and inclusive nation. The lifted sanctions are expected to revitalize Syria’s economy by restoring banking access and unfreezing assets. However, arms-related sanctions and restrictions on figures involved in repression remain. The decision reflects growing concern that maintaining harsh sanctions could fuel further instability. Syria’s foreign minister called the move a sign of “international will” to support the nation’s recovery, although the U.S. and EU remain cautious about the country’s democratic trajectory. New York Times France24

U.S. Fears of Imminent Collapse of Syria Government Led to Easing of Sanctions, Rubio Says. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday that the U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Syria was driven by fears the country was just weeks away from collapse and a return to full-scale civil war. Rubio said the Syrian transitional government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, was on the brink of fracturing, risking renewed sectarian violence and national disintegration. Although initially skeptical of Sharaa, designated a terrorist by the U.S., President Donald Trump reversed course after meeting him in Saudi Arabia, influenced by regional leaders. Rubio stressed that engaging with Syria’s new leadership offered at least a chance of stabilization, whereas disengagement guaranteed failure. His remarks provided a more nuanced rationale than Trump’s public explanation, which emphasized Saudi and Turkish influence. Rubio’s testimony underscores growing urgency in Washington and Europe. Wall Street Journal

Ambrey says Panama-flagged products container reportedly interdicted northwest of Iranian port. British maritime security firm Ambrey reported that a Panama-flagged, UAE-linked products tanker was allegedly hijacked about 51 nautical miles northwest of Iran’s Bandar-e Jask port. An urgency broadcast indicated the vessel had been "hijacked." Ambrey noted the tanker appears to be part of Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet,” used to evade sanctions, and that a sister ship has previously been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s Fighter Jets and Missiles Get a Boost from the India-Pakistan Clash. Pakistan’s recent claim that it downed Indian fighter jets using Chinese-made J-10C aircraft and PL-15 missiles has drawn global attention, especially in China and Taiwan. Islamabad’s assertion, though unconfirmed by India, could mark the first reported combat use of J-10Cs, boosting Chinese confidence in their military hardware. Chinese state media and military commentators hailed it as proof of Beijing’s rising defense capabilities, with some Taiwanese analysts warning their air force may struggle against such jets. The clash is also viewed as a symbolic showdown between Western and Chinese arms, as India increasingly relies on Western suppliers while Pakistan aligns more with Beijing. However, New Delhi claimed it jammed Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied air defense systems in 23 minutes, casting doubt on their effectiveness. China’s government has remained cautious in public statements, likely to preserve improving ties with India. Analysts in Taipei see the episode as a warning to remain vigilant amid rising regional military tensions. New York Times

Pakistan blames India for bomb targeting school bus that killed five in restive Balochistan. A suicide car bombing targeted a school bus in Khuzdar, southwestern Pakistan, on Wednesday, killing five people—at least three of them children—and injuring 38 others. The attack occurred as the bus transported students to a military-run school in the violence-prone Balochistan province, which has long suffered from a separatist insurgency led by groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). No group has claimed responsibility, but suspicion has fallen on Baloch separatists. Pakistani officials, including Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, condemned the attack and blamed India, alleging it used proxies to destabilize Balochistan—an accusation New Delhi has historically denied. The military echoed this claim, calling the bombing a “cowardly” act. The incident adds to growing fears of broader conflict amid heightened Pakistan-India tensions, and revives painful memories of past attacks on schools, including the 2014 Peshawar massacre. Associated Press Reuters

China isn’t getting rid of its controls over rare earths, despite trade truce with US. Despite agreeing to a 90-day trade truce with the U.S., China appears to be maintaining its strict export controls on rare earth minerals, a strategic move to retain leverage in ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions. While U.S. officials claimed China would lift these restrictions, there is no evidence this has occurred. Instead, Beijing has launched crackdowns on mineral smuggling and tightened enforcement of a licensing system requiring government approval for each shipment. Rare earth magnets—critical to electronics, defense, and automotive industries—are now subject to case-by-case export permits, giving China visibility into supply chains and potential leverage over U.S. defense contractors. Although some licenses have been granted, notably to German firms like Volkswagen, access for American defense companies remains uncertain. Analysts warn China’s dominance in rare earth processing and its selective use of export controls amounts to a powerful geopolitical weapon, fostering unpredictability and reinforcing its influence in global supply chains. CNN

Philippines, U.S. conduct joint maritime exercises in South China Sea. For the first time, U.S. and Philippine Coast Guard vessels participated in joint maritime exercises alongside the Philippine Navy and Air Force in the contested South China Sea, the Philippine military has announced. Held on Tuesday near Palawan and Occidental Mindoro, the drills included the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Stratton and a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft. The exercise featured communication and search-and-rescue drills. Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief Romeo Brawner stressed the exercises’ role in enhancing defense capabilities and strengthening regional partnerships. Tensions in the South China Sea remain high, as China continues to assert broad territorial claims rejected by a 2016 international tribunal ruling. The joint drills highlight growing Washington-Manila cooperation in the face of increasing Chinese assertiveness in the strategically vital maritime region. Reuters Bloomberg

AFRICA

Sudan’s military says it took full control of Greater Khartoum region that includes the capital. Sudan’s military announced on Tuesday that it has fully recaptured the Greater Khartoum region—including the capital and its sister cities Omdurman and Khartoum North—from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a major milestone in a civil war that began in April 2023. The RSF has not commented on the military's claim. Brig. Gen. Nabil Abdullah declared Khartoum “completely free of rebels” following intense battles in western and southern Omdurman. The conflict, which erupted from a power struggle between the military and RSF, has killed at least 24,000 people and displaced about 13 million. Parts of Sudan face famine, and the war has been marked by widespread atrocities, including brutal war crimes and crimes against humanity, particularly in Darfur. The military’s latest gain could shift momentum, though humanitarian conditions across the country remain dire. Associated Press

South Africa’s Ramaphosa seeking to salvage ties with Trump. U.S. President Donald Trump is set to host South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at the White House on May 21 amid heightened tensions over Trump’s accusation that Pretoria is committing “genocide” against white farmers. Ramaphosa, determined to mend ties, aims to counter what his government calls misinformation. The meeting follows Trump’s executive order cutting aid to South Africa, as well as the successful launch of a program relocating white South Africans to the U.S. as refugees. South African officials reject the genocide narrative, blaming high crime—not racial motives—for farmer deaths. Trump is also expected to address controversial chants and race-based trade laws, which tech billionaire Elon Musk has criticized. Pretoria may consider easing its laws to defuse tensions, particularly regarding Musk’s Starlink. While some fear Ramaphosa could be publicly embarrassed, he insists he expects a productive discussion focused on trade and restoring diplomatic relations. Associated Press BBC Reuters Bloomberg

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

China assails U.S. warning to companies on use of Huawei AI Ascend chips. The Chinese government has said that a recent U.S. warning to global companies concerning use of Huawei AI chips "seriously undermined the consensus reached at the high-level talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva.” Although a Chinese spokesperson acknowledged that the Commerce Department has "adjusted" its wording on Huawei chips, they said the U.S. guidance amounted to “discriminatory measures” and demanded that the US “correct its mistakes.” Commerce has changed its original statement on “the risks of using PRC advanced computing ICs, including specific Huawei Ascend chips,” removing a reference to “anywhere in the world." The May 13 Commerce Department guidance states that the use of Huawei’s Ascend chips “risks” violating U.S. export controls. Bloomberg CNBC

Malaysian ministry retracts statement on plans for Huawei-equipped AI system. Malaysia has retracted statements by an official of the Communications Ministry who on Monday indicated the nation's plans to construct an AI system based on Huawei Ascend GPU-powered servers. Deputy Minister of Communications Teo Nie Ching announced that Malaysia would deploy 3,000 units of Huawei's AI chips by 2026 and noted that the Chinese DeepSeek startup would make one of its AI models available for the country's use. Teo’s office later retracted her remarks without explanation, leaving unclear if the project will proceed. The announcement drew comment from the White House in the form of an online post by AI czar David Sacks, who wrote “as I’ve been warning, the full Chinese stack is here." The administration has pressured Malaysia to crack down on semiconductor transshipments to China. The country also is involved in a court case in Singapore, where charges of fraud have been leveled at three persons for allegedly disguising the ultimate customer of AI servers containing Nvidia chips. Malaysian officials reportedly are conducting an investigation. Bloomberg

Nvidia CEO says U.S. restrictions on H20 chip exports to China ‘deeply uninformed’. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has criticized Washington's plan to restrict sales of its H20 graphics processing units (GPUs) to China, stating the administration's action is "deeply uninformed." Huang described the latest U.S. restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips – since early 2024 the most advanced ones the firm could sell to China – as “deeply painful” and underscored the high costs for Nvidia and the longer-term impact on the AI ecosystem. Huang said the most recent chip restriction has forced Nvidia to write off around $5.5 billion in inventory and scrap potential sales of $15 billon to the Chinese market. Huang explained that AI technology is a “full-stack thing” including chips, fabrication facilities, infrastructure and software. Protecting one layer at the expense of everything else, Huang said, was “nonsensical." South China Morning Post

Senate Democrats urge administration to create ‘guardrails’ on AI tech sales to Gulf states. A group of Senate Democrats has written to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Secretary of State Marco Rubio urging the Trump administration to reassess the AI technology deals with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The senators argue that expanded sales of AI chips to these countries risk exposing advanced technology to China and Russia and could limit supplies available for U.S. companies. The announced deals, the senators said, “amount to a breathtaking rollback of export control restrictions that have helped maintain the U.S. technological edge to ensure the United States wins the AI race." The group, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Elizabeth Warner, called for guardrails on sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to prevent sensitive technology leaking to China and Russia. The senators acknowledged that the two Gulf states are important regional partners but cited their previous commercial ties to Chinese entities including Huawei Technologies. Bloomberg

Multiple Russian government services impacted by DDoS cyberattack ‘from abroad.’ Access to major Russian state services, including the FNS tax agency, has been disrupted due to a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack "originating from abroad," according to the Downdetector monitoring site. The outages affected Goskey, the service for managing secure digital keys as well as Saby, responsible for documents. Russian businesses reportedly were unable to access a government alcohol distribution service and a system involved in anti-counterfeiting operations. No hacker group has claimed responsibility for the latest DDoS attacks. A number of cyberattacks conducted during the Ukraine-Russia cyberwar have followed important political events, with the latest incidents coming on the heels of President Donald Trump's two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Record

New Dutch law expands espionage law to encompass cyberespionage, computer offenses. In a move to protect national security, critical infrastructure, and sensitive technologies, a new Dutch law imposes criminal penalties for a broader range of espionage activities, including digital espionage. By extending existing espionage laws, the legislation makes it a criminal offense to share state secrets. The updated law also authorizes criminal charges to be placed for leaking sensitive information not classified as a state secret or acting for a foreign government in a way that harm Dutch interests. Computer-related offenses can result in sentences of up to eight years in prison. Justice and Security Minister David van Weel emphasized the need to strengthen resilience against attacks and threats from abroad. The Record

Industry critics point to government blind spots, tardy notifications on Salt Typhoon attacks. The Salt Typhoon breach, a massive Chinese cyberattack on telecommunication companies, came as a complete surprise to some of the firms targeted, who were disturbed to learn about the Chinese cyber campaign from the Wall Street Journal rather than the federal government. One industry source said it was "disconcerting" that large companies did not learn about it first from government agencies. A source told CyberScoop, “the engagement was not treated with the kind of respect it deserved." Other critics told CyberScoop the dearth of information and notification was only one of multiple government failings in responding to Salt Typhoon. Among the complaints, sources said Investigators suffered “failure of imagination” in not better anticipating the breaches. Others pointed to the vagueness of government warnings about vulnerabilities and risks before the breaches were discovered. In defense of the government, a current CISA official said that in collaboration with the FBI, companies were notified as quickly as possible and were assisted in deploying countermeasures, with new information sometimes provided on an hourly basis. Moreover, government relations with industry have improved over time. CyberScoop

Google unveils ‘personal, proactive’ AI consumer services at annual conference. Google has announced plans to put AI into the hands of more Web surfers even as it previewed a $249.99-a-month subscription for AI power users as the company tries to deflect growing competition in the AI sector. During its annual I/O developers conference, Google unveiled the plans along with multiple demos, including new smart glasses. Google disclosed its vision for Google Search, with enhancements to allow customer to pose everything from simple queries to complex research questions. Google said that its AI services would be personal and proactive, making phone calls to a store on a user's behalf or generating practice tests for students. A major update presented at the conference involves allowing users across the U.S. to switch Google Search into AI Mode, which replaces the Web's traditional responses with computer-generated answers for complicated queries. CEO Sundar Pichai touted the cost effectiveness of Google's AI services, noting that "over and over, we've been able to deliver the best models at the most effective price point." Reuters

Government contractors are lining up to work with DOGE. Security contractors are adjusting to the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) sweeping cost-cutting by pitching their tech as essential, despite rising privacy and national security concerns. As DOGE slashes federal jobs, it's leaning more on private vendors to centralize citizen data and explore AI-driven workforce replacements. Companies like Axonius and ServiceNow are marketing tools to help agencies pass DOGE audits, while OpenAI has shown interest in FDA collaboration. Meanwhile, lobbying by firms like Accenture and Booz Allen has intensified. Cybersecurity firms face mounting pressure, with Mitre and Deloitte planning layoffs amid contract losses. Though some executives say federal work remains steady, the broader ecosystem is strained. Courts have blocked some DOGE initiatives, and lawmakers are alarmed by deep cuts to the cyber workforce. Critics warn that, under the guise of efficiency, DOGE risks compromising both civil liberties and national security. Axios

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Security will be a Critical Aspect of New AI Center

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The recent signing of an agreement between the United Arab Emirates and the United States to create a large scale joint center for artificial intelligence (AI) is groundbreaking. It is the first such international agreement signed by the U.S., is dramatically refocusing U.S. attention on the Middle East, and perhaps most importantly, is opening up access to powerful U.S. - manufactured AI chips to foreign entities. Of course, it also provides opportunities for adversaries to gain unauthorized access to those chips, as well as the AI algorithms they use so a solid focus on security will be critical in order to keep those chips out of the hands of U.S. adversaries.

Iran has a long history of attacking the UAE, as it continues in its aspirations to become a regional power. Cyber operations go back to 2012 and range from distributed denial of service attacks and other annoyances to penetrations in 2024 of critical infrastructure like the oil and gas industries. Iran, via Houthi drone attacks, has inspired the UAE to increase its security around the new nuclear facility at Barakah. If the Houthis continue their attacks against the Gulf’s infrastructure, they may attempt to attack the new AI center as well.

Russia also has a history of hacking into Emirati activities, although less so in recent years - more likely a reaction to the ongoing Ukraine conflict and demands on state-sponsored hacking by the GRU and SVR, rather than a decrease in desire. There is some information on a potential thawing of Emirati - Russian relations, as the UAE helps Russia evade U.S. and Western European economic sanctions. The fact that the U.S. is involved in the new AI center will make it more likely that the GRU and SVR will be interested in penetrating its security, as any such penetration would make the U.S. look bad.

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The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has a history of engagement with the UAE based on trade and technology. G42, an AI-focused startup founded in 2018 and chaired by Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed (who also serves as the country’s National Security Advisor), is integral to the Emirates strategy of becoming a global AI powerhouse.

G42 has been very engaged with China, and the Beijing connection goes all the way to the top.

Peng Xiao, the CEO of G42, was born in Harbin in 1984. He eventually became a U.S. citizen and then later, renounced that for Emirati citizenship. However, PRC law states that anyone born in China with at least one Chinese parent is Chinese. Beijing does not recognize dual citizenship and requires that Chinese citizens assist the government when directed to do so.

Even if Xiao were predisposed not to cooperate with the Chinese government, relatives still living in China could provide all the leverage needed to ensure his compliance. Peng Xiao has a record of less-than-savory engagements with Emirati companies like Dark Matters and Pegasus and has signed deals with PRC companies like Huawei and BGI Genomics.

Because G42 is such an important part of the UAE’s big strategic move, and has the attention of the country’s top leadership, the U.S. cannot just direct them to not partner with China. G42 in February 2024 publicly reported that they had entirely divested themselves of PRC companies.

In August of 2024, Microsoft announced a change in their AI-focused engagement with the UAE, saying they would lease the equipment vice selling it, as a way to exert greater control over its proliferation.

Both of these actions are steps in the right direction, but it’s uncertain whether they will be sufficient to protect U.S. technologies. One of the important factors going forward will be how U.S. pressure on Sheik Tahnoun manifests itself in modified behavior by Xiao and G42.

Of course, that means that the U.S. must ensure it has its eyes wide open on both economic and intelligence issues and acts as needed to ensure that U.S. dominance in AI continues.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

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Why Poland is Critical – For Ukraine and Europe’s Defense

EXPERT INTERVIEWS – Sunday’s presidential election in Poland, and the country’s growing role in NATO, have put a fresh focus on Poland as a critical part of European efforts to defend against Russian aggression.

No European country – other than Ukraine itself – has been as directly affected by Russia’s 2022 invasion. Poland has taken the highest number of Ukrainian refugees by far; overall, nearly nine million have crossed into Poland, and three years into the war, roughly one million Ukrainian refugees remain there. The country has also faced repeated threats from Moscow; last month, Russia's foreign intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin criticized Poland and the Baltic nations for "constantly rattling their weapons,” and warned that in the event of "aggression from NATO," those countries would be "the first to suffer."

Poland pledged recently to boost military spending, despite the fact that it already spends more as a percentage of GDP than any NATO nation (Estonia and the U.S. rank second and third), and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has vowed to double the size of the military, including reservists. Tusk and other Polish officials have also suggested recently that the country consider positioning nuclear weapons on Polish soil.

Tusk has cited a growing threat from Russia and “a profound change of American geopolitics” as factors driving these actions. And this week, Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that those realities posed an "existential choice" for Europe. "Europeans may not like what we hear, but we cannot pretend not to hear it," Sikorski wrote in an OpEd for the Kyiv Independent. "We must be prepared for the U.S. to wash its hands not only of Ukraine, but even of Europe."

In last weekend’s election, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski won roughly 31 percent of the vote, barely edging out populist right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki. There will be a runoff on June 1. Both leading candidates support continued U.S. military engagement in Europe, but Trzaskowski supports deepening ties with the European Union, while Nawrocki promotes a nationalist agenda.

Former NATO Supreme Commander Gen. Philip Breedlove, who traveled to Poland last week, said the country is "really trying to decide: is America a reliable ally or not? And if they're going to have to go it alone, they're going to have to take some pretty tough measures to make sure that they can hold, should Russia do what they seem to be continuing to do."

Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke about Poland‘s current role in European defense with Gen. Breedlove, former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, and Poland’s former National Security Advisor Jacek Siewiera. Their comments below have been edited for length and clarity.

Poland is absolutely critical to any European or transatlantic military support for Ukraine. Poland is the logistics hub. It's playing the role that the U.K. played in the liberation of Europe [during World War II]. It's absolutely essential.

For Poland, this involves geography, but Poland also has emerged as a frontier country politically because the Poles were right about Russia, and they are recognized to have been right about Russia. They're not the only ones – it’s similar in the Baltics. But Poland is the big country that was right about Russia.

And third, Poland has a serious military – arguably the most capable land force in Europe, and it will be more capable in a couple of years. The Poles are serious about this, and despite the polarized political climate in Poland, there is a national consensus about military strength. So they are a frontier European country. Their knowledge of Ukraine and their knowledge of Russia is sound. So they've emerged as a player and they've emerged as a player because Russia is a threat.

Poland is a leader among the defense and security-minded Europeans. So that would be the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, Poland, and I think Romania too, once they get their government and new presidents sorted out, Czechia as well, as long as the current government is in place. This is a group of countries with direct experience with the Russians and strong political consensus about defense. Add to that Germany – Polish-German relations are complicated, but Germany under the new government has now recognized that they were wrong about Russia and that Poland was right.

Poland is not an equal to Germany and France, it's not quite yet in the same league economically, but it is in the same league militarily – in fact it arguably has a better military, especially ground forces, than the Germans and the British.

I don't think the Trump administration is going to pull out of NATO or withdraw from Europe entirely. But it doesn't matter what I think – if you are a Polish leader, you have to consider all contingencies, even ones with well under a 50% chance of transpiring. So a smart play is to work with the Americans, but also work with the Europeans, so that in the worst case, you're not left alone. I think that's where these calls for nuclear stationing are coming from. I don’t think those calls are the right ones at this time, but the discussion of security if the U.S. decouples from Europe is one that people have to take seriously.

I've just come from Poland. I’m now in Sofia and on my way to Bucharest. And what I'm seeing is that people are trying to think through the problem of the trade-off between current military readiness, fixing the kit that they have to be able to fight tonight, versus investment in long-term readiness, and buying the next level. And they're looking at some pretty ruthless prioritization to figure out how to do this. So there are still a couple of nations, two or three nations, that are not yet showing the appropriate movement. But Poland has certainly determined, as most capitals have determined by now, that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is not a partner, he's an enemy. He has now three times marched his army across internationally recognized borders and invaded his neighbors and we're going to have to deal with him.

Meanwhile, Poland and all these nations now are really trying to decide: is America a reliable ally or not? And if they're going to have to go it alone, they're going to have to take some pretty tough measures to make sure that they can hold, should Russia do what they seem to be continuing to do.

Poland is now joining the Baltic nations in considering the use of landmines – withdrawing from the treaty that bans their use. And it doesn't surprise me at all that Poland is now also requesting the stationing of nuclear weapons on its soil. Look at South Korea and Japan, there are now intimations out of both of those countries that they think it's time to start a nuclear program. I don't doubt that Poland would love to have us locate weapons there. Poland is going to buy the kind of aircraft that could deliver a nuclear weapon in a stealthy manner, and again, the world is sort of sitting back and watching what's going on in Ukraine and they're trying to determine: is America a reliable ally? And they're going to start taking these more drastic measures because you just can't bet your national sovereignty and existence on a hope.

Poland is kind of the anchor in the north of Europe in terms of defense. We've got a new really amazing anchor in the high North – Finland is an incredibly capable and determined nation and military, and they fought Russia to a standstill in wars like the Winter War [in 1939] and others. Now you've got Poland, which has been steadily investing for years in military capability, and taking care to improve their defenses in an important way. And I think if you look in the Black Sea in the south, you've got Romania, a nation there that's not moving as fast as others, but Romania is fast becoming an anchor in the south. But definitely in the center, Poland is the army that has the capability to inflict damage on Russia.

Deterrence is in the mind of the deterred. They know that in Poland. And clearly most people like me think of deterrence. They think of capability and credibility. I think that in the West, NATO has plenty of capability to deter Mr. Putin. I do not think the West has the credibility to deter Mr. Putin right now, and that's worrisome.

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Poland is a country which has very specific, and I would even say, extraordinary ties with the United States. These ties were very significant and strong before the [Ukraine] war started because of our military spending, because of our membership in NATO and the commitment to NATO transatlantic relations.

Having said that, it's also important to express that now, we see another chapter of this relationship with a very dynamic pace of change, which is sometimes very surprising. It's a moment in which I hope we observe the situation in which the president of the biggest allied country, our strategic partner, is trying to find a way as a businessman to navigate the opposing interests of Imperial Russia and America, as a great player on the global scene.

But what I see from the side of President [Vladimir] Putin is a behavior which is not aligned with any form of peace-seeking efforts or efforts targeted to achieve long-lasting peace in Ukraine. It's much more about outplaying and prolonging the conflict as long as possible, to strengthen the position of Russia in this prolonged war because this plays in favor and in the advantage of Russians.

From the Polish perspective, we believe that a huge level of caution is necessary when it comes to any form of deals, agreements or even statements of mutual understanding when it comes to Russia, because they don't see peace and democratic rules as an unchangeable value of our world.

I read recently a statement that President Donald Trump has done more for European defense than anyone; it is partially true because he forced Europeans to spend money on weapons. The question is if it's not too late. The mood [in terms of defense spending] hasn't changed much in Poland since the beginning of war. Now it's just getting more tangible and more precise, when it comes to the level of commitment which we have already taken. From our perspective, defense spending which was crafted by our government and the president at the level of 3.7%, and now to 4.7% with a projection that we can exceed even the level of 5% in upcoming years – this is something we perceive not as preparedness for war. We perceive it, and we want to create the message for the perception of our neighbors, that we will be ready for any form of confrontation. But we want to avoid it. As far as we invest in our defense, we believe that we are taking every necessary step to avoid war. And that's the reason, that's the justification, that's the purpose of our efforts. Particularly when it comes to defense.

We believe in three things. One, that if we in Poland will be prepared, we will deter effectively. And we mean it. So we invest in it deeply and very heavily, also with the transformation of the armed forces, civil protection and defense industry. In this third part, we also believe in cooperation with the United States, which is still a strategic ally.

The second thing which we are sure of is that we can be very effective when it comes to deterrence, when it comes to the function of NATO and the way in which NATO can counteract hostile activity from Russia.

And the third thing we believe is that Europe has to understand as a whole, that having expanded our wealth, expanded our borders, we expanded our industries and markets by attaching new members of the European Union, we also have to be aware that the European Union has to rethink how we expand responsibility of defense over the entire Europe. And Europe has to grow up and stand up to the challenge which is now posed by the Russian side, which is posed by the Kremlin and their imperialism. And I think that so far Europe has taken some interesting and very promising steps towards that.

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Counter-AI May be the Most Important AI Battlefront

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Artificial intelligence (AI) has truly captivated the American imagination, with increasing attention focused on the latest AI breakthroughs and capabilities. With each new model release and use case, AI adoption has flourished, with recent estimates suggesting that some 52% of adults in the U.S. have used large language models (LLMs) and generative AI as of early 2025.

Yet beneath the surface lies a less visible, relatively unknown, and potentially more consequential domain: counter-AI. While leading digital transformation at the CIA, I witnessed firsthand how adversarial AI operations are reshaping the threat landscape, often faster than our nation’s defenses can adapt. This silent race to protect AI systems from manipulation may be the most consequential AI competition of all, with profound implications for national security.

Adversarial machine learning (AML) represents one of the most sophisticated threats to AI systems today. In simple terms, AML is the art and science of manipulating AI systems to behave in unintended ways. The methods through which AML can lead to harmful outcomes are limited only by the imagination and technical skill of criminal and hostile nation-state actors.

These attacks are not theoretical, and the stakes are only getting higher, as AI systems become more pervasive across critical infrastructure, military applications, intelligence operations, and even everyday technologies used by billions of people. In short: a compromised AI could result in anything from a minor inconvenience to a catastrophic security breach.

Unlike traditional cybersecurity concerns, adversarial AI attacks operate in a realm most people cannot visualize, an abstract mathematical space where machine learning systems interpret our world. These attacks not only breach digital defenses, but they also manipulate how AI perceives reality itself.

Imagine a financial institution deploying an AI-powered loan approval system, trained on decades of lending data. Unknown to the bank, an insider has subtly manipulated that training data – not enough to raise alarms, but enough to create a hidden bias. Months later, when the system is operational, it systematically rejects qualified applicants from certain neighborhoods while approving less qualified candidates from others. This is data poisoning, a form of AML attack that changes how the AI evaluates risk.

Or consider an autonomous military drone on a reconnaissance mission. The drone's vision system has been carefully trained to distinguish friend from foe. Yet an adversary has discovered that placing a specific pattern on their vehicles, even one invisible to human observation, causes the drone to consistently misclassify them as civilian infrastructure. This "evasion attack" requires no hacking whatsoever. It simply exploits the way in which the AI interprets visual information.

The vulnerabilities run deeper still. In a landmark 2020 paper, experts demonstrated how attackers could effectively "steal" commercial facial recognition models. Through a technique called "model inversion," they were able to extract the actual faces used to train the system simply by querying it strategically. In essence, they recovered recognizable images of specific individuals, revealing how AI systems can inadvertently memorize and expose sensitive training data.

The emergence of large language models has introduced entirely new attack surfaces. While most commercial models make a concerted effort to place guardrails on their use, that is not always the case with open-source models, opening up the opportunity for manipulation and harmful (even illegal) outputs. Indeed, seemingly innocuous prompts can trigger systems to generate dangerous content, from malware code to instructions for illegal activities. Prompt injection has become widely recognized as the top risk for LLM applications.

These are no longer hypothetical scenarios at the edge of technological knowledge. They are documented vulnerabilities being actively researched and, in some cases, exploited. What makes these threats particularly insidious is their capacity to compromise systems without changing a single line of code. The AI continues to function normally in most circumstances, making these changes all but invisible to traditional cybersecurity monitoring.

While these threats affect all AI applications, the national security implications stand out as particularly alarming. Across the U.S. national security landscape, agencies and departments have increasingly flagged adversarial machine learning as a critical vulnerability in military and intelligence operations. Gone are the days when US national security organizations only worried about a capable and sophisticated adversary stealing their sensitive data. Today, they must also worry about an adversary manipulating how machines interpret that data.

Imagine a scenario where an adversary subtly manipulates AI systems supporting intelligence analysis. Such an attack might cause these systems to overlook critical patterns or generate misleading conclusions, something quite difficult to detect yet potentially devastating for decision-making at the highest levels of government. This is no longer science fiction; it's a growing concern among security professionals who understand how AI vulnerabilities translate to national security risks.

These concerns become even more urgent as the global race for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) accelerates. The first nation to achieve AGI will undoubtedly gain an unprecedented, once-in-a-lifetime strategic advantage, but only if that AGI can withstand sophisticated adversarial attacks. A vulnerable AGI might prove worse than no AGI at all.

Despite these mounting threats, our defensive capabilities remain woefully inadequate. Researchers from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) captured this reality bluntly in 2024, noting that "available defenses currently lack robust assurances that they fully mitigate the risks." This security gap stems from several interconnected challenges that have allowed adversarial threats to outpace our defenses.

The problem is fundamentally an asymmetrical one. Attackers need find only a single vulnerability, while defenders must protect against all possible attacks. Adding to this challenge, effective defense requires specialized expertise bridging cybersecurity and machine learning, a rare combination in today's workforce. Meanwhile, organizational structures often separate AI development from security teams, creating unintentional barriers that hinder effective collaboration.

Many senior leaders and stakeholders remain unaware of AI's unique security challenges, approaching AI security with the same mindset they bring to traditional systems. This results in a predominantly reactive approach, addressing known attack vectors rather than proactively securing systems against emerging threats.

Moving beyond this reactive posture demands a comprehensive counter-AI strategy that encompasses defensive, offensive, and strategic dimensions. First and foremost, security must be woven into AI systems from the ground up, rather than as an afterthought. This requires cross-training personnel to bridge the divide between AI and cybersecurity expertise, something that is no longer a luxury but an operational necessity.

Effective defense might mean deliberately exposing models to adversarial examples during training, developing architectures inherently resistant to manipulation, and implementing systems that continuously monitor for anomalous behavior. Yet defense alone is not enough. Organizations must also develop offensive capabilities, employing red teams to pressure-test AI systems using the same sophisticated techniques potential attackers would deploy.

At the strategic level, counter-AI demands unprecedented coordination across government, industry, and academia. We need mechanisms to share threat intelligence about emerging adversarial capabilities, international standards establishing common security frameworks, and focused workforce development initiatives that build a pipeline of talent with expertise spanning both AI and cybersecurity domains. Some experts have also suggested a rigorous safety testing regime for frontier models both before deployment and throughout their lifespans. It’s a proposal heavy with political and legal dimensions, since frontier models remain the intellectual property of private companies, but some form of safety assurance is needed.

The challenges are formidable, and the stakes are high. As AI systems increasingly underpin critical national security functions, their safety becomes inseparable from our nation's security posture. The question is not whether adversaries will target these systems. They will. But will we be ready?

Today, we stand at a crossroads. While the public's attention remains fixed on AI's dazzling capabilities, those of us who've worked behind the classified walls of national security understand that the invisible battle for AI security may prove decisive.

So where do we go from here?

The future demands more than technical solutions. It requires a fundamental shift in how we approach AI development and security. Counter-AI research needs substantial support and funding, particularly for developing adaptive defense mechanisms that can evolve alongside attack methodologies. But money is not the solution. We need to break down the organizational barriers that have traditionally separated developers from security professionals, creating collaborative environments where security becomes a shared responsibility rather than an afterthought.

As with all challenges across the digital landscape, this one is not just about technology; it's about talent and culture. Having led a large technical workforce at the CIA, I've witnessed firsthand how breaking down these barriers creates not just better products, but more secure ones.

And let’s be clear about what's at stake. The nation that masters counter-AI will likely determine whether artificial intelligence becomes a guardian of or a threat to freedom itself. This may sound like hyperbole, but it’s the logical conclusion of where this technology is headed.

When I speak of freedom in this context, as I often do in public addresses, I'm referring to something more fundamental than just democratic governance. I mean the essential liberty of citizens to make meaningful choices about their lives, access accurate information, and participate in civic processes without manipulation. An AI ecosystem vulnerable to adversarial manipulation threatens these foundational freedoms in profound ways.

Consider a world where information ecosystems are increasingly AI-mediated, yet these systems remain susceptible to sophisticated adversarial influence. In such a world, who controls the manipulation of these systems effectively controls the information landscape. The potential for mass influence operations, targeted manipulation of decision-makers, and the hidden subversion of critical infrastructure represents a serious threat vector against free societies.

A nation that masters counter-AI develops not just a technical advantage, but resistance to these forms of digital manipulation. It preserves the integrity of its information ecosystem, the reliability of its critical infrastructure, and ultimately, the sovereignty of its decision-making processes. In this sense, counter-AI becomes the shield that protects freedom in the age of artificial intelligence.

The AI race we read about so often is more than a race to build the most powerful AI. It is also a race to build resilient AI that remains faithful to human intent even under adversarial attack. This competition unfolds largely beyond public view, conducted in research labs, classified facilities, and corporate campuses around the world. Yet its outcome may prove the most consequential aspect of the broader AI revolution.

For those of us in national security, building the world’s premier counter-AI capability is a strategic imperative that will shape the balance of power for decades to come. The future belongs not to those who merely create the most capable AI, but to those who can defend it from sabotage.

It is time we recognized this silent battlefront for what it is: one of the most important technological competitions of our time. The security of artificial intelligence can no longer remain an afterthought. It must become central to our national conversation about how we build, deploy, and govern these increasingly powerful systems.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of expert perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

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As Negotiations Over Ukraine Drag On, What Can Putin Stand to Lose?

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE - “How Many Divisions has the Pope Got?” Josef Stalin’s sarcastic, contemptuous dismissal of an appeal by Pope Pius XI to a higher moral imperative in favor of the exercise of raw power during his 1935 suppression of the Catholic church in Russia came to mind with the confluence in the news cycle of two recent events: the election of Pope Leo XIV and a call by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to meet him in Istanbul to discuss an end to the war between their two countries.

And we can be sure that his antecedent in the Kremlin was not far from Putin’s mind as he presided over the May 9 parade in Moscow commemorating the 80th anniversary of victory in “The Great Patriotic War.” Parallels have often been drawn between the two, not least because both are autocrats sitting in the Kremlin with a brutality differentiated only by scale.

Indeed, Putin has been described as an "unabashed admirer of Stalin" who has worked to rehabilitate Stalin’s image in Russia, emphasizing strong leadership, national unity, and decisive action, while often glossing over or minimizing the scale of Stalin’s repression.

As Norman M. Naimark pointed out a 2023 article, the two “have many of the same characteristics,” to include “their shared role as leaders of Russia at war;” their projection of “powerful images of being in control, even when they may not be;” an image “of knowing what they are doing (even when they don’t), of leading their respective armies, and of honoring the service of their military subordinates.”

As Naimark rightly noted, “The motifs of sacrifice for the fatherland and the honor of shedding blood for the greater good of the Russian people loom large with both.” In addition, he wrote, “Both leaders relied heavily on the Russian secret police in their rise to power and in maintaining their supreme positions.”

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Yet, their similarities notwithstanding, Putin’s public relationship to the feared “Koba” has long been ambiguous. As Naimark - citing the difficulty the Russian leader has had balancing Stalin’s “achievements” and crimes – has written, “In 2009, Putin called for a nuanced view of Stalin, stating: ‘If you say you are positive (about Stalin's rule), some will be discontented. If you say you are negative, others will grumble.’ Similarly, during his 2009 visit to Poland, Putin criticized the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Stalin and Hitler, calling it a ‘collusion to solve one’s problems at others’ expense’ only to later reverse course and describe it “as a clever maneuver that delayed war with Germany.”

Stalin’s commitment to that agreement - even in the face of warnings from spies such as Richard Sorge that Nazi Germany was about to attack - set the stage for a series of Soviet military catastrophes after Operation Barbarossa was unleashed on June 22, 1941. Likewise, as Putin is well aware, the months after he launched his attack on Ukraine saw the Russian Army endure costly military reversals at the hands of their courageous Ukrainian adversaries.

Yet, as the Victory Parade will have reminded him, the Russian leader is also aware that what matters most is not how a war begins but rather how it ends.

Now that he is gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, Putin will surely be reluctant to call a halt to the fighting until he has wrought something from the human disaster he created that he can call victory.

In addition to acquiescence to his long-standing demand that Ukraine cannot become a NATO member, chief among his minimalist goals is ensuring Russian control over the four Ukrainian oblasts (regions) annexed by the Russian Duma in September 2022; Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. While we might see the Duma as a rubber stamp, Putin knows that ending the war without securing Russian control over those four regions could engender uncomfortable questions.

He might be able to sell giving up claim to the chunk of Zaporizhzhia west of the Dnieper by citing the potential military cost of executing a river crossing. But failure to secure the bulk of the annexed territory – much of which is still in Ukrainian hands - will raise uncomfortable questions for the Russian leader, chief among them ‘What was it all for if we can’t achieve our minimalist aims?” We don’t know that such an outcome would put Putin’s rule at risk, but the possibility of a repetition of an event akin to the Prigozhin mutiny will give him pause.

We are in this conflict’s concluding stage. As evidenced by a call between presidents Trump and Putin on Monday that yielded no meaningful Russian concessions, Putin is continuing to delay entering into any serious negotiations for as long as the U.S. will allow it. And if real negotiations are to take place in the future, Putin will - like Stalin at Yalta when negotiating the fate of Poland with Churchill and FDR - let events on the battlefield dictate the terms of settlement for as long as that is feasible.

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To be sure, the gains being achieved by the Russian Army are not on the same scale as the Red Army’s 1944 destruction of the Wehrmacht’s army center in Operation Bagration and its subsequent conquest of what was then Polish territory the next year in the crushing Vistula-Oder Offensive.

But the Russians are slowly gaining ground - albeit sometimes only a few hundred meters at a time - while grinding down their Ukrainian opponents. And they are doing so utilizing tactics that minimize casualties in comparison with the profligate waste of life that characterized their operations earlier in this conflict.

If Putin is to be deterred from this course, appeals to humanity and mercy – whether from President Trump or Pope Leo XIV are unlikely to resonate with him. As President Trump has indicated, other measures – presumably to include strengthened sanctions and some replenishment of Ukrainian weaponry - may be needed if Putin is to be forced to the negotiating table before achieving his minimalist gains.

Based on my experience observing talks between the Western nations and the Soviets regarding conventional arms and confidence building measures in Europe, any talks with Moscow over Ukraine are likely to be rife with Russian delaying tactics and squabbling over issues that, in the end, are of little import to them in order to secure concessions on those matters about which they truly care.

And, like Stalin’s promise at Yalta to allow for free and fair elections on conquered Polish territory, any promises Putin makes in the course of those talks regarding the conduct of his rule over captured territories should be seen as ephemeral.

During negotiations, we can only hope that the Russian leader does not have the benefit of reporting from a spy akin to Alger Hiss, who provided Stalin with crucial insights into the positions of the men who sat across the table from him at Yalta. Ending this brutal war will be hard enough as it is.

Mark Kelton is a founding partner in the Five Eyes Group which works to identify and deliver unique capabilities and technologies to the national security community of the U.S. and its closest allies.

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Open Source Report for Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Tuesday, May 20, 2025. 8:22 AM EST

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here’s a look at today’s headlines, broken down by region of the world.

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Tuesday, May 20, 2025

F.B.I. Closes Unit That Policed Compliance with Surveillance Rules

Trump touts Russia-Ukraine talks, even as he steps back

Europeans to escalate sanctions on Russia, Germany says

Netanyahu Says Israel Will Take Over Gaza as It Allows Food into Enclave

Members of Congress vow not to split Cyber Command, NSA

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How the U.S. is Tapping a Much Bigger Well in The Middle East. In an interview with The Cipher Brief, Norman Roule, a 34-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency and a Middle East expert, framed President Donald Trump’s 2025 visit to the Gulf as a historic geopolitical realignment. Roule argued that the trip resembled the transformative U.S.-Middle East partnerships of the 1930s, now centered on energy, capital, and advanced technology. Agreements forged in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi—especially in AI and semiconductors—signal a strategic pivot that sidelines Chinese tech influence and deepens U.S. engagement. While China remains a key economic partner in the Gulf, Roule noted that the U.S. is asserting its dominance through secure, long-term tech collaboration. He also viewed Trump’s omission of Israel from the itinerary as a calculated message: regional actors must take more responsibility for resolving their crises, including Gaza. On Iran, Roule said the Quds Force remains active but geographically constrained. The lifting of sanctions on Syria is meant to reintegrate it into the Arab fold, limiting Iranian reach. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: The World of Threats – According to the Defense Intelligence Agency. Walter Pincus analyzes the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment, highlighting its sobering outlook on global threats. Pincus underscores the DIA’s conclusion that Russia remains committed to winning in Ukraine, willing to absorb staggering losses—over 700,000 casualties and tens of thousands of destroyed vehicles and aircraft—in pursuit of attritional gains and Western fatigue. Despite sanctions and economic strain, Russia is prioritizing defense spending and adapting tactics such as drone warfare and electronic disruption. On China, the DIA sees continued pressure on Taiwan without imminent invasion, though Beijing is expanding its global military reach while battling internal corruption. The report also warns of Iran’s nuclear brinkmanship and ISIS’s resurgent threat to the West, noting recent arrests of suspected terrorists entering via the U.S. southern border. Pincus subtly critiques President Trump's dismissal of such threats and defends the intelligence community's integrity. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

The Inside Story of Trump’s Search for a New Air Force One. President Donald Trump, frustrated by delays in Boeing’s $3.9 billion Air Force One replacement program, turned to an opulent Boeing 747-8 owned by Qatar as a potential interim solution. The Qatari jet, outfitted for royalty, had failed to sell for years but was offered to Trump during a Mar-a-Lago visit in February 2025. Trump quickly embraced the idea, describing it publicly as a “gift, free of charge.” Behind the scenes, Trump special envoy Steven Witkoff and Qatari officials coordinated the potential transfer, though confusion remains over whether it began as a sale or donation. The proposal sparked bipartisan ethics concerns over foreign influence and the massive retrofitting costs—estimated at $1 billion—required to meet presidential and military standards. Even if the plane is donated, officials say it’s unlikely to be ready before 2027, raising questions about its utility and cost. Qatar denies seeking influence, and no formal agreement has been finalized. New York Times

Schumer to seek vote on blocking Qatar's gift to Trump. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer is introducing legislation to block the use of foreign-owned planes, such as the $400 million jet offered to President Trump by Qatar, from serving as Air Force One. Democrats argue that the gift raises corruption and national security concerns. Schumer plans to push for a vote during the government funding negotiations, possibly as an amendment to Republican spending bills. Some Senate Republicans have also expressed unease about the Qatari offer. Trump insists the jet is a gift to the U.S., not to him personally. Schumer has stressed that no modifications could make a foreign jet secure enough for presidential use. Axios

Trump threatens ABC News over Qatar jet coverage. President Trump has slammed ABC News for its coverage of a luxury jet he is set to receive from Qatar, claiming the network is falsely portraying it as a personal gift. In a Truth Social post, Trump warned ABC and Disney CEO Bob Iger, referencing a past legal settlement over inaccurate reporting by anchor George Stephanopoulos. Trump insists the jet is a donation to the U.S. Air Force, not to him personally. “The wonderful country of Qatar, after agreeing to invest more than 1.4 trillion Dollars in the United States of America, deserves much better than Misleading (Fake!) News,” he asserted. Trump added that his lawyers have told ABC to stop calling the jet "free." The issue has drawn concern from lawmakers and national security experts. This condemnation is part of Trump's broader pattern of attacking media outlets critical of him. The Hill

Air Force Chief of Staff says the Air Force must grow, even at the expense of other services. In an interview with Breaking Defense, U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin argued that the Air Force should receive a larger share of the defense budget to prepare for conflict in the Indo-Pacific, even if it means reallocating funds from other services. Allvin claimed that airpower is better suited for the speed, reach, and agility required in the region, contrasting it with the limitations of ground and naval forces. He highlighted the Air Force’s ability to deploy rapidly and avoid entanglements, offering “disruptive technologies” like the F-47 and Agile Combat Employment initiatives as strategic advantages. Allvin emphasized this as a chance to reshape the Joint Force and overcome budgeting “inertia,” with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly open to shifting traditional funding patterns. While avoiding direct criticism of other branches, Allvin’s comments underscore growing interservice budget competition amid flat or declining inflation-adjusted defense spending despite promises of a trillion-dollar 2026 fiscal year Pentagon budget. Breaking Defense

Rare-Earths Plants Are Popping Up Outside China. As geopolitical tensions with China intensify, countries like the U.S. and Brazil are working to diversify rare-earth supply chains, aiming to break China’s near monopoly on the processing of these critical minerals. Canada-based Aclara Resources is leading efforts with a new rare-earths mine in Brazil, which holds the second-largest reserves globally. Aclara will ship partially processed material to a future U.S. plant, supplying companies like Germany’s VAC, which is building a Pentagon-backed magnet factory in South Carolina. While Brazilian production costs are roughly triple China’s, Aclara touts environmentally friendlier methods, avoiding toxic wastewater and tailings dams. Still, the industry faces challenges: Brazil’s complex regulations, financing gaps, and entrenched Chinese dominance. Nevertheless, U.S. and European governments are investing hundreds of millions in rebuilding rare-earth processing capacity to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, especially for essential technologies like EV motors, missiles, and smartphones. Full production at Aclara's Brazilian plant is expected by 2028. Wall Street Journal

In Deadly NYC Ship Accident, Questions About What Went Wrong. Sunday’s crash of the Mexican Navy’s Cuauhtémoc into the Brooklyn Bridge raises serious questions about operational oversight, mechanical reliability, and maritime coordination in one of the world’s busiest harbors. Though initially described as a goodwill tour, the ship’s sudden and fatal drift under a bridge it was never meant to approach suggests multiple layers of failure. Two crew members were killed and 22 injured, including 11 who were in critical condition on Monday night. Mechanical issues may have caused the ship’s engines to push it in reverse, but experts point to inadequate tugboat support and misjudged river and wind conditions as contributing factors. There’s also debate over whether U.S. harbor authorities or Coast Guard staffing shortages played a role in monitoring or assisting the departure. The collision reflects broader concerns about protocol when foreign naval vessels operate in tight urban waterways, especially with large crews aboard. As investigations unfold, both Mexico and the U.S. face pressure to explain whether the tragedy stemmed from miscommunication, equipment failure, or preventable human error. New York Times Reuters Associated Press The Guardian

F.B.I. Closes Unit That Policed Compliance with Surveillance Rules. FBI Director Kash Patel has disbanded the Office of Internal Auditing, an internal watchdog established in 2020 to monitor compliance with national security surveillance rules, particularly under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). The move comes amid ongoing congressional debate over whether to reauthorize Section 702, which allows warrantless surveillance of foreign targets and often sweeps in Americans’ data. Critics argue the closure weakens oversight, especially as prior audits revealed significant abuses of surveillance rules, including improper searches involving members of Congress and protestors. The office’s responsibilities have been absorbed by the FBI’s Inspection Division, raising concerns about whether rigorous auditing and reform efforts will continue. The decision has drawn scrutiny, especially given Patel’s prior criticism of the FBI’s misuse of surveillance tools and his more recent support for reforming and preserving Section 702. New York Times

US Supreme Court lets Trump end deportation protection for Venezuelans. The U.S. Supreme Court allowed President Donald Trump’s administration to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans on Monday, reversing an extension granted under President Joe Biden. The decision effects over 348,000 Venezuelans who received protection due to humanitarian crises in their home country. The Court's brief, unsigned order lifted a lower court's block on Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s move to terminate TPS, though it leaves room for future legal challenges. Critics call it the largest revocation of legal status for non-citizens in modern U.S. history. Venezuelan migrants expressed fear and uncertainty, with many now at risk of deportation. Reuters Forbes BBC CNN

DHS says first $1,000 ‘self-deport’ flight completed. The Department of Homeland Security has officially launched its new program offering $1,000 and travel assistance to migrants who voluntarily agree to self-deport through the CBP Home app, a redesign of the Biden-era CBP One app. The first charter flight under this program took 68 migrants to Colombia and Honduras on Monday. DHS stressed this was voluntary and not an ICE enforcement action, noting participants may retain the ability to legally return to the U.S. in the future. In a statement, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem warned migrants that they would be “subjected to fines, arrest, deportation and will never be allowed to return” to the U.S. if they fail to take the opportunity to self-deport. However, the American Immigration Lawyers Association warned migrants to seek legal advice before accepting, cautioning that self-deportation could carry serious consequences, including potential reentry bans. Associated Press The Hill CNN Axios

Real estate tycoon Charles Kushner confirmed as ambassador to France. Charles Kushner, a real estate developer and father of Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law, was confirmed by the Senate as U.S. ambassador to France despite past felony convictions for tax evasion, witness tampering, and false statements—crimes for which he served two years in prison and was later pardoned by Trump in 2020. The confirmation vote was 51–45, with Sen. Cory Booker as the only Democrat in favor and Sen. Lisa Murkowski the only Republican opposed. Critics, including Sen. Patty Murray, argued Kushner’s criminal history made him unfit for the role. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who brought charges against Kushner in the past, said his case was “one of the most loathsome, disgusting crimes that I prosecuted when I was U.S. attorney.” At his hearing, Kushner acknowledged his past mistakes but underscored personal growth since. Last year, Trump praised Kushner as a “tremendous business leader, philanthropist and dealmaker.” Politico The Hill Reuters

Comey says online post that triggered investigation is a ‘distraction.’ Former FBI Director James Comey defended his controversial Instagram post showing seashells arranged as the numbers “8647,” which some interpreted as a call to assassinate President Trump. In his first interview since the post sparked a federal investigation, Comey said he saw no violent meaning and viewed the shells as a “clever” political expression. Comey confirmed he was interviewed by the Secret Service and DHS, saying he regrets “the distraction and the controversy around it,” but maintained that the post was “totally innocent.” He also accused Trump and his administration of eroding the rule of law by targeting individuals, citing years of personal attacks since his 2017 firing. Comey dismissed calls for his prosecution as politically motivated, warning of growing threats to democratic institutions. A White House spokesperson referred to Comey as “disgraced,” and said he “suffers from an incurable case of Trump Derangement Syndrome.” Axios Associated Press The Guardian

Retired 4-star Navy admiral found guilty in bribery case. Retired U.S. Navy Admiral Robert P. Burke, once the Navy’s second highest-ranking officer, was convicted Monday on multiple felony counts, including bribery and conspiracy. Prosecutors said Burke used his position in 2021 to steer a $355,000 Navy training contract to Next Jump, a New York-based tech firm, in exchange for a promised post-retirement job paying $500,000 annually plus stock options. He also pushed for a larger, multimillion-dollar contract for the company. Burke began working at Next Jump in October 2022 after retiring. The jury’s verdict makes him one of the highest-ranking U.S. military officers ever convicted of crimes committed while in uniform. Prosecutors accused him of concealing the scheme and misleading the Navy about when talks with the company began. Burke's attorney plans to appeal, claiming the jury didn’t see the full picture. Next Jump’s co-CEOs, Charlie Kim and Meghan Messenger, face trial in August. Burke’s sentencing is set for Aug. 22. New York Times The Hill

U.S. Offers $10 Million for Tips on Hezbollah in Latin America. The U.S. Department of State on Monday announced that it is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information on the Latin American financial networks of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, particularly in the tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. The effort, which was announced by the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program in multiple languages, aims to disrupt the group's funding operations linked to terrorism, including the 1994 bombing in Argentina. Hezbollah is allegedly involved in various illicit activities such as money laundering, drug and oil trafficking, counterfeit operations, and more. Brazilian authorities have been investigating ties between Hezbollah and local criminal groups like First Capital Command since 2000. The Brazilian government has not commented on the announcement. Bloomberg USEmbassy.gov

Haitian gang leader convicted in kidnapping of American missionaries. A U.S. jury has convicted Germine “Yonyon” Joly, former leader of Haiti’s 400 Mawozo gang, for orchestrating the 2021 kidnapping of 16 Americans and a Canadian affiliated with Christian Aid Ministries. The hostages, including five children, were held for over two months. Although Joly was already serving a life sentence in Haiti, he continued to direct gang activities from prison. Extradited to the U.S. in 2022, he had previously pleaded guilty to weapons smuggling and laundering ransom money. He will be sentenced later this year. The 400 Mawozo gang remains active in Haiti, though it is under new leadership. Associated Press Miami Herald

Venezuela suspends flights from Colombia after arrests. Venezuela has suspended all flights from Colombia following the arrest of 38 individuals, including 17 foreigners, accused of being involved in a “conspiracy and terrorism.” On Monday, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said the group, which allegedly included bombers, smugglers, and mercenaries, had entered Venezuela with explosive materials and planned to plant them at embassies and other facilities. The government often points to schemes targeting President Nicolás Maduro or national infrastructure, an accusation often directed at the opposition and the U.S., though both deny involvement in such plots. The flight suspension, effective immediately, will last until May 26, just ahead of Venezuela’s upcoming elections. Colombia confirmed it was notified but has not received details about any detained citizens. Also on May 19, a panel of experts, supported by the Organization of American States, said that Caracas’s post-election period has seen “the most severe and sophisticated phase of political repression in Venezuela’s modern history.” Reuters Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump touts Russia-Ukraine talks, even as he steps back. Despite a highly anticipated two-hour phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, no breakthrough was achieved in securing a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine would begin negotiations “immediately,” but signaled a U.S. pullback from mediation, stating the two parties must resolve the conflict themselves. Putin offered only vague commitments to work on a peace “memorandum,” while resisting a 30-day ceasefire sought by Ukraine and European allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that U.S. disengagement would benefit only Russia, which continues to demand sweeping concessions, including Ukrainian neutrality and territorial losses. Vice President JD Vance echoed the administration's frustration. Vance told reporters on Monday that the US might ultimately have to say, “This is not our war.” European leaders reaffirmed support for Ukraine, with some suggesting new sanctions if Russia fails to cooperate. Meanwhile, Putin appears to be buying time, maintaining offensives while projecting diplomatic engagement. Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal New York Times Financial Times

Analysis: Putin just showed Trump how little he needs him. Monday’s phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed a sharp imbalance in leverage—and a sobering truth about the limits of American influence. For all of Trump’s efforts to position himself as a peacemaker, the call underscored that Putin neither needs nor seeks U.S. approval. By returning to his well-worn narrative blaming NATO expansion, Putin signaled no shift in his war aims. Meanwhile, Trump’s post-call remarks—urging Russia and Ukraine to “talk directly” and suggesting the Vatican as a venue—suggested a retreat from active diplomacy. Putin is not negotiating; he’s stalling for time. Trump, in turn, appears to be lowering expectations, recognizing that he holds little sway. The U.S. is no longer driving the peace process; it’s outsourcing it. The call demonstrated that Putin sees this war as existential and winnable, while Trump views continued involvement as optional and unprofitable. It was less a negotiation than a quiet abdication. CNN

Has Donald Trump abandoned Ukraine? Following Monday’s phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump appeared to shift U.S. policy on Ukraine, alarming Kyiv and European allies. Trump emphasized future U.S.-Russia trade relations over pressuring Moscow to halt its war, and signaled the U.S. would step back from mediating peace talks, proposing instead that the Vatican take over. Critics, including former U.S. diplomats, say Trump’s stance emboldens Russia and suggests he's prioritizing normalization with Moscow over Ukraine’s defense. While Trump previously threatened sanctions for continued Russian aggression, he didn’t reiterate them in the call, which insiders described as friendly. Meanwhile, Russia continues its offensive in eastern Ukraine, with reports of heavy fighting and territorial gains. Some analysts argue Trump’s hands-off approach could spur direct negotiations, but others see it as ceding ground to an aggressor amid worsening battlefield conditions for Ukraine. “This call with Trump was a win for Putin,” said Steven Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine now at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Financial Times Bloomberg Axios

Europeans to escalate sanctions on Russia, Germany says. European leaders will escalate sanctions on Russia to increase pressure for a ceasefire in Ukraine, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump briefed allies on his call with Vladimir Putin. “Europe and America are very united on this: We will closely support Ukraine on its path toward a ceasefire,” Merz wrote on X. “Europe will increase the pressure on Moscow through sanctions. This is what we agreed upon with @POTUS after his conversation with Putin.” While Trump claimed ceasefire talks would begin, the Kremlin made no such commitment. Merz’s remarks underscore Europe’s alignment with Washington on using sanctions to influence Moscow amid Russian battlefield gains. Germany is coordinating with allies on a new round of sanctions. The European Union is expected to approve its 17th sanctions package this week, with measures likely targeting Russia’s financial sector and third-party banks aiding Moscow's war effort. Reuters Bloomberg The Guardian

UK hits Russia with sanctions targeting military and financial sectors. The United Kingdom announced a significant expansion of its sanctions against Russia, adding 82 new designations targeting the country's military, energy, and financial sectors. This move, coordinated with the European Union, comes in response to intensified Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. The sanctions focus on entities involved in the supply chains of Russian weapons systems, including Iskander missiles, as well as financial institutions aiding Russia in evading existing sanctions. Additionally, 18 vessels identified as part of Russia's "shadow fleet" used to circumvent crude export restrictions were added to the sanctions list, along with individuals linked to these efforts. UK Foreign Minister David Lammy urged President Vladimir Putin to agree to an unconditional ceasefire to facilitate peaceful negotiations, warning that continued resistance would only strengthen support for Ukraine and intensify sanctions. Reuters

Russia is only playing for time in talks on Ukraine peace, Germany says. Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in peace in Ukraine and is only playing for time in talks with the United States, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday. Before a meeting with European Union defense ministers in Brussels, Pistorius said that Europe needs to increase the pressure on Russia by imposing more sanctions, especially on Russia's energy sales. Reuters

Finland to use proceeds from frozen Russian assets to supply ammunition to Ukraine. Finland announced Monday that it will send €90 million ($101 million) worth of ammunition to Ukraine, using proceeds from frozen Russian assets held within the European Union. The EU has frozen around €210 billion in Russian central bank reserves since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Under an EU decision, interest generated from these assets can now fund Kyiv’s military through a common fund. Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen noted the weapons will be sourced from domestic industry, benefiting both Ukraine’s defense and Finland’s economy. The Kremlin has condemned such actions as illegal and vowed legal retaliation. Reuters

As Russia’s fiber optic drones flood the battlefield, Ukraine is racing to catch up. Fiber optic drones have emerged as a transformative force in the Ukraine-Russia war in 2025, offering a major tactical edge by bypassing electronic warfare and radio limitations. Unlike traditional FPV (first-person view) drones, fiber optic variants are guided through physical cables, allowing uninterrupted video feeds and precision strikes, even in jammed or enclosed environments. Russia deployed this technology first, notably using it to regain control of Kursk Oblast and cripple Ukrainian logistics. Units now employ these drones in Donetsk, intensifying pressure on Ukraine. While Ukraine’s elite drone units—like Azov and Achilles—have started deploying fiber optic systems, widespread use remains limited. Production challenges and reliance on Chinese components hamper scaling. Ukraine is racing to adapt, with new domestic spools like the "Silkworm" and growing pilot training. As spool lengths increase beyond 10 kilometers, both sides are redefining frontline logistics and battlefield reach, with Russia currently enjoying a key advantage. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks kill 1, injure 13 in Ukraine over the past day. Russian attacks across multiple Ukrainian regions killed one civilian and injured at least 13, local officials said Tuesday. Strikes hit Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy oblasts, targeting towns with air, drone, and artillery assaults. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 93 of 108 Russian drones overnight, with 35 shot down and 58 disrupted by electronic warfare. Damage included homes, infrastructure, and vehicles. In Sumy Oblast, a drone strike sparked a fire at a civilian site, though no casualties were reported. Kyiv Independent

Nearly 56,000 residents evacuated from Sumy Oblast. Nearly 56,000 residents have been evacuated from Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast due to intensifying Russian attacks, with efforts ongoing to relocate the remaining civilians under mandatory evacuation orders, the regional governor said Monday. Located along the Russian border near Kursk, the region faces daily drone strikes, guided bombs, and infiltration attempts. Over 86,000 residents are subject to evacuation, Evacuations accelerated after a May 17 Russian strike on a civilian bus in Bilopillia killed nine people. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, May 19. Meaningful peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are impossible unless the Kremlin explicitly recognizes the legitimacy of Ukraine’s government, which it has repeatedly denied in recent statements. Russia also refuses to accept the sequencing of ceasefire talks before peace negotiations, using this stance to delay diplomacy while continuing military advances. The Kremlin appears to be expanding its demands, including full Ukrainian territorial concessions in several oblasts, and even threatening additional regions like Kharkiv and Sumy. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly increasing military infrastructure near Finland and Estonia, signaling possible future aggression against NATO once the Ukraine war ends. Western military support for Ukraine continues, with Australia sending Abrams tanks, Denmark pledging over $600 million in aid, and Finland contributing €90 million through frozen Russian assets.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Defense, fishing and youth visas: What's in the UK-EU post-Brexit 'reset' deal? The UK and the European Union agreed Monday to a sweeping post-Brexit “reset” covering defense, trade, energy, migration, and youth mobility, marking the most significant thaw in relations since Brexit. A major breakthrough is a defense and security pact allowing UK participation in EU crisis missions and arms procurement. On trade, a veterinary (SPS) agreement will ease border checks on food, benefitting UK exporters and Northern Ireland, though it raises concerns about regulatory alignment and sovereignty. Both sides also pledged to link carbon markets, avoiding new EU carbon taxes and improving energy cooperation, with the UK moving toward rejoining the EU electricity market. A youth visa program and potential UK re-entry to Erasmus+ will enhance mobility for under-30s. Fishing rights have been extended to 2038, and talks are underway to recognize professional qualifications. The deal signals pragmatic cooperation but has sparked criticism from Brexit hardliners over renewed EU legal influence and environmental rule alignment. France24 Politico EU

Can defense become Europe’s economic growth machine? As Europe ramps up defense spending to counter global threats and reduce reliance on the U.S., leaders hope this investment will spur civilian technological innovation through military-civil fusion — the way military research once gave rise to inventions like GPS, Microwaves, and the PC. The EU has committed hundreds of billions to defense, with countries like Germany launching massive rearmament plans. This spending boom is attracting private firms and startups, such as AI-driven defense company Comand AI, but experts caution that realizing broad economic gains is uncertain. Historical evidence shows military R&D can boost productivity, but only if funds are invested smartly in innovation rather than just weapons stockpiling. Critics warn of trade-offs, such as cuts to welfare programs, and question the long-term economic benefit of producing arms. To succeed, Europe must prioritize open, competitive tenders, support nimble tech firms, and build more of its own defense systems, rather than relying heavily on American suppliers. Politico EU

As focus on defense mounts, Europe’s diplomatic arm aims to gut foreign offices. The EU plans to downsize around 10 of its 144 foreign delegations and cut approximately 100 local staff as part of a budget-driven overhaul of its diplomatic branch, the European External Action Service (EEAS). The downsizing, led by top diplomat Kaja Kallas, aims to shift focus from development aid to strategic priorities like defense partnerships and sanctions enforcement. Delegations in lower-priority countries such as Belarus and Lesotho will be reduced to core staff, while some in strategic regions may see increased staffing. Though no offices will officially close, stripped-down delegations may operate without physical premises. The plan, set to cost €20 million in its first year and projected to save €9 million annually thereafter, reflects broader EU budget constraints and a growing emphasis on defense spending. The cuts are expected to unfold in two phases in 2026 and 2027, and further reductions could arise from ongoing long-term bloc budget negotiations. Politico EU Kyiv Post

Race for Poland’s presidency blows wide open. Poland’s presidential race has tightened dramatically ahead of the June 1 runoff, with centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski narrowly leading the first round with 31.4% over right-wing Karol Nawrocki’s 29.5%. The result was much closer than expected, leaving Trzaskowski scrambling to rally left-wing and moderate voters, while Nawrocki can draw from a broader right-leaning base—54% of first-round votes went to conservative or far-right candidates. Trzaskowski is closely tied to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose falling popularity and stalled reforms have become a liability. Meanwhile, Nawrocki is appealing to voters of third-place libertarian Sławomir Mentzen, who is socially conservative but economically liberal. Voter fatigue with establishment parties and the divided political landscape makes turnout and coalition-building key. Though both candidates support Ukraine, foreign and EU policy will also shape the final days of campaigning. Analysts describe Trzaskowski as the “battered favorite,” but the outcome remains highly uncertain. Politico EU

Former NATO Chief Rasmussen Says Plan for European Force In Ukraine 'Moving Too Slowly.' Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen criticized the slow progress on establishing a European force to deploy in Ukraine post-ceasefire, warning that Europe risks becoming a “coalition of the waiting” rather than the willing. He urged quicker action on defining the force's mandate, rules of engagement, and contributors. Rasmussen called for doubling European defense spending to counter Russia’s military advantage and proposed a new security-economic alliance of democracies (D7) excluding the U.S., which he says has embraced isolationism under Trump. He warned that global democracy is in retreat and urged collective action, unity, and resolve to confront rising authoritarianism. RFE/RL

UK adds 82 new designations to its Russia sanctions list. Britain has announced new sanctions targeting 100 Russian entities across the military, energy, and financial sectors, coordinated with parallel EU measures. The move follows Russia’s largest drone attack of the war on Ukrainian cities and aims to disrupt supply chains for weapons like Iskander missiles, financial networks evading sanctions, and Kremlin-backed disinformation operations. Sanctioned groups include 46 financial institutions, 18 vessels from Russia’s "shadow fleet," and individuals tied to sanctions evasion. British officials, alongside EU leaders, urged the U.S. to impose tougher sanctions, after President Trump’s recent call with Putin failed to secure a Ukraine ceasefire. Reuters

Russia releases oil tanker from Baltic Sea detention, Estonian broadcaster ERR reports. Moscow has released the Greek-owned oil tanker Green Admire, which it detained on Sunday after the vessel left Estonia’s Sillamae port and entered Russian waters via a designated navigation channel. The tanker, sailing under a Liberian flag, has resumed its journey to Rotterdam, according to ship tracking data and Estonian broadcaster ERR. Estonia’s foreign ministry suggested the detention may have been a response to the Estonian navy’s recent inspections of tankers carrying Russian oil through the Baltic Sea. The incident sheds light on rising maritime tensions linked to regional energy trade and ongoing geopolitical friction. Reuters

Russia bans Amnesty International. Russia on Monday said it was banning Amnesty International, labeling the human rights group “undesirable” in its latest crackdown on civil society amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Russian prosecutor’s office accused Amnesty of promoting “Russophobic” agendas, supporting Ukraine, and calling for the Kremlin’s political and economic isolation. The ban prohibits Amnesty from operating in Russia, where its Moscow office was already shut down in 2022. Although Amnesty has documented Russian war crimes, it has also criticized Ukraine, drawing backlash from Kyiv. Russia has increasingly targeted foreign NGOs since 2015, using legal tools to suppress dissent and stifle criticism of President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Politico EU Associated Press The Guardian

UK Plans New Powers to Tackle Rise in Iran-Backed Threats. Britain intends to enhance its counterterrorism measures in response to growing security threats linked to Iran, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper announced on Monday. She cited the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a key concern and called Iran’s activities an "unacceptable threat" to UK security. The announcement follows the arrest of three Iranian nationals for allegedly spying for Tehran, and the detention of five others suspected of planning a terrorist attack, reportedly targeting the Israeli Embassy in London. The UK also summoned Iran’s ambassador over the incidents. These developments take place amid ongoing international efforts to address Iran’s nuclear development and enrichment program. Bloomberg

Lithuania files case against Belarus with UN’s top court over alleged smuggling of migrants. Lithuania has filed a case against Belarus at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of violating the U.N. Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea and Air by allegedly orchestrating the illegal movement of migrants into Lithuania. Vilnius claims Belarusian state entities increased flights from the Middle East and that security forces escorted migrants to the border, forcing them to cross illegally. Lithuania seeks compensation for related damages, including border reinforcement costs. The move follows failed negotiations and comes amid broader EU concerns about Belarus and Russia “weaponizing” migration to destabilize the bloc. Belarus has yet to respond to the allegations. Associated Press Kyiv Independent Al Jazeera

THE MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu Says Israel Will Take Over Gaza as It Allows Food into Enclave. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans on Monday for Israel to take full control of the Gaza Strip, intensifying military operations while allowing limited food aid into the enclave amid dire humanitarian warnings. The move followed pressure from U.S. lawmakers concerned about growing hunger in Gaza and coincided with expanded Israeli ground operations and airstrikes targeting Hamas infrastructure. Netanyahu said control of Gaza was essential to demilitarize Hamas and recover hostages. Western leaders from the U.K., France, and Canada condemned the escalation and threatened sanctions if humanitarian access isn’t improved. Meanwhile, aid groups warn of imminent famine, with nearly 500,000 Gazans facing starvation. A U.S.-Israel plan aims to secure aid distribution through guarded sites, but the U.N. has raised concerns over civilian risks. The developments follow Hamas's release of American hostage Edan Alexander, which reportedly included an understanding to resume aid, though implementation lagged, prompting renewed U.S. and Qatari pressure on Israel. Wall Street Journal Financial Times The Guardian Reuters Associated Press

Israel Wavers as Far Right and Military Disagree on Gaza Strategy. Israel’s delayed ground offensive in Gaza and partial resumption of food aid reflect deep internal divisions amid mounting international pressure. Prime Minister Netanyahu is caught between far-right cabinet members pushing for full re-occupation of Gaza and military leaders concerned about sustainability and hostage risks. Though aid had been blocked since March, Israel allowed limited food shipments on Monday, citing fears of famine and diplomatic backlash, particularly from the Trump administration. At the same time, increased airstrikes and the threat of a larger invasion are seen as leverage in ongoing ceasefire talks with Hamas. Netanyahu’s strategy—balancing military escalation with humanitarian concessions—has drawn criticism from allies like France, the U.K., and Canada, who called Israel’s aid measures insufficient and warned of further action if restrictions continue. The situation remains fluid, with both aid and military actions now serving as tools in broader negotiations. New York Times

Vance denies that he canceled Israel trip over Gaza operations, cites logistics. U.S. Vice President JD Vance has seemingly dismissed reports that he canceled a planned visit to Israel to avoid signaling support for its expanded military operations in Gaza. While a senior U.S. official told Axios the visit was dropped due to the escalation, and to avoid contradicting U.S. efforts for a ceasefire, Vance said on Monday he ultimately decided not to go for logistical reasons, after attending the new pope’s confirmation in Rome. Despite earlier reports suggesting the visit was being coordinated, the White House stated no additional travel plans were finalized. “I’m sure we’ll visit Israel sometime in the future, but not today,” Vance said. The canceled visit coincides with Israel’s intensified Gaza campaign and growing concerns that Washington is sidelining Israel in regional diplomacy. Vance, known for his isolationist stance, has previously said America’s interests may differ from Israel’s. Meanwhile, President Trump visited several Middle Eastern countries but skipped Israel, prompting unease among Israeli officials. Times of Israel Axios The Telegraph

Yemen's Houthis announce 'maritime blockade' on Israel's Haifa port. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels declared a “maritime blockade” on Israel’s Haifa port on Monday in response to Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza. In a televised statement, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree warned all shipping companies that Haifa is now considered a target. The Houthis have previously launched missile attacks at Israeli sites, including Ben Gurion Airport, claiming solidarity with Palestinians, though most missiles have been intercepted. While they’ve paused attacks on U.S. vessels, Israel has retaliated with airstrikes, including a May 6 strike on Sanaa’s main airport that caused casualties and infrastructure damage. Reuters Times of Israel

Trump plan or not, Israel is letting more Palestinians leave Gaza. In recent months, Israel has begun to ease its border restrictions, allowing around 1,000 Palestinians to leave Gaza for countries like France. The move comes amid severe humanitarian conditions and growing international pressure over the ongoing conflict. Though the Israeli government hasn't officially tied the policy change to U.S. President Trump’s proposal to redevelop Gaza, Interior Minister Moshe Arbel praised the idea, describing departures as temporary evacuations for reconstruction. Critics argue the shift is still selective and politically motivated, with limited transparency. Many Palestinians view leaving Gaza with deep reluctance, fearing permanent displacement akin to the 1948 Nakba. Israel insists exits are based on foreign government requests, but travel remains perilous and restricted. Departing Gazans can take only small bags, and foreign diplomats often provide basic food. Despite mixed motives and pain over those left behind, many hope their departures are temporary, as war continues to devastate the region. Reuters

Gaza children are sent back to war zone following medical care after Jordan rejects requests to stay. Seventeen Palestinian children, including a 5-month-old girl called Nevine Abu Daqa, were recently returned to Gaza after receiving medical treatment in Jordan, despite their families' pleas to stay due to the enclave’s dire conditions. Rights groups warn that forcing them back to a war zone with collapsing healthcare and deteriorating conditions violates international law. Israel’s ongoing blockade has left Gaza's hospitals without food, fuel, or medicine, as airstrikes continue relentlessly. Jordan, which already hosts many Palestinians, is reluctant to accept more, fearing it would support forced displacement. Though Israel currently allows medical returns, Palestinians fear permanent exile if broader resettlement plans, supported by Trump and embraced by Israel, proceed. Associated Press

Iran says nuclear talks will fail if the US pushes for zero enrichment. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takhtravanchi warned Monday that nuclear talks with the U.S. "will lead nowhere" if Washington continues to demand an end to Iran’s uranium enrichment. He told state media that enrichment is a “national achievement” Iran will not abandon. His comments came after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff reiterated Sunday that any new deal must include a halt to enrichment. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, criticized the U.S. for public statements that contradict private negotiations but confirmed Iran remains engaged. A fifth round of talks is expected in Rome this weekend. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China aims new JY-27V radar at stealthy targets, such as America’s fifth-gen fighters. China has unveiled the JY-27V, a new truck-mounted radar system designed to detect advanced stealth aircraft like the U.S. F-22 and F-35. Developed by the state-owned China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), the JY-27V operates in the very high frequency (VHF) band and features an active electronically scanned array (AESA) antenna. This configuration enhances its ability to locate low-observable targets and guide precision strikes. An upgrade from the earlier JY-27A model, the JY-27V boasts a larger antenna, increased power aperture, and refined algorithms, improving its stealth detection capabilities. Its mobility allows for rapid deployment and withdrawal, bolstering China's air defense against fifth-generation fighters. South China Morning Post

How could China’s military use AI? An expo gives some hints. At the China Military Intelligent Technology Expo, over 500 Chinese companies showcased how artificial intelligence could enhance military capabilities. Key exhibits included AI-driven tools for combat decision-making, flight training, intelligence gathering, and commander assistance, many tied to operations near the Taiwan Strait. Beijing-based EverReach AI demonstrated systems that learn from training data to improve simulations and planning, while Xiamen-based Utenet offered LLM-powered systems for command coordination and strategic simulations. GoLaxy showed AI that monitors global cyberspace, including tracking online reactions to conflicts. These technologies reflect President Xi Jinping’s directive for the People’s Liberation Army to rapidly adopt advanced technologies, particularly AI. Although many tools remain vague in real-world application, the expo offered insight into China’s ambition to integrate AI into both combat and non-combat military operations, amid rising tensions with Taiwan and strategic rivalry with the U.S. South China Morning Post

Taiwan’s Lai Toughens China Stance, Stoking Debate on Democracy. In his first year as Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te has taken a hardline stance on national security, expanding efforts to counter Chinese influence and prepare for potential military conflict. His government has deported Chinese nationals, targeted entertainers working in China, and revived military courts for espionage cases. Critics, including rights groups and academics, warn that these measures risk eroding civil liberties and freedom of speech. Lai’s approval rating has dropped to 32%, with public opinion divided over his policies. Military spending has increased to over 3% of GDP, and businesses are feeling the strain of frequent reservist call-ups. Lai argues these steps are essential amid rising Chinese military threats and calls for international solidarity. However, opposition figures warn of self-censorship and a growing chill across society, including “academia, intellectual circles, and the cultural sector.” While Lai’s approach contrasts with the pragmatism of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, analysts say he is drawing firm boundaries to deter Beijing, despite the risks of escalation. Bloomberg

Taiwan wants peace and talks with China but must strengthen defenses, president says. Marking his first anniversary in office on Tuesday, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te reaffirmed his commitment to peace and dialogue with China, while emphasizing the need to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses. Speaking to reporters at the presidential office in Taipei, Lai stated, “Peace is priceless, and war has no winners,” but warned against illusions about China’s intentions. He reiterated that Taiwan is open to exchanges with China based on “reciprocal dignity,” advocating dialogue over confrontation. Lai’s comments come amid rising tensions, with China labeling him a “crisis maker” and conducting repeated military drills near Taiwan, including “Strait Thunder-2025A.” Reuters

‘Frictions between friends’: Taiwan’s Lai brushes off tariff tensions with Washington. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te downplayed recent trade tensions with the U.S., calling them “frictions between friends” amid ongoing tariff negotiations. After President Trump imposed a 32% tariff on all Taiwanese imports—later reduced to 10% for 90 days—both sides began talks to resolve the dispute. Lai has struck an optimistic tone, emphasizing trust and dialogue between allies. In a speech, he highlighted Taipei’s strength in semiconductors and green tech, citing Nvidia’s announcement to build an AI supercomputer in partnership with TSMC, Foxconn, and the Taiwanese government. He also welcomed Taiwanese investment in the U.S., referencing TSMC’s $100 billion pledge. However, Lai’s proposal to remove tariffs on U.S. goods drew backlash from local farmers, who fear increased competition. His comments mark a balancing act between national defense, diplomacy, and economic resilience. Associated Press South China Morning Post

The US and China called a truce on tariffs, but is the battleground expanding? Following the May 11 Geneva truce slashing most tariffs, U.S.-China trade tensions have reignited as Washington imposed a global ban on Huawei’s Ascend AI chips, citing national security. On May 19, 2025, Beijing denounced the move as “unjustified suppression” and accused the U.S. of “long-arm jurisdiction.” Analysts say U.S. President Donald Trump is expanding the trade war into tech, while China counters with export restrictions, legal tools, and moves toward self-reliance. China has also cracked down on strategic mineral smuggling and warned neighbors like Vietnam and Cambodia against aiding U.S. trade efforts. Experts say the current truce is fragile, with broader geopolitical issues—Taiwan, the South China Sea, Ukraine—likely to shape future U.S.-China negotiations. South China Morning Post

China’s Economy Feels the Sting from Trade War. China’s economy slowed in April 2025, with weaker industrial production, retail sales, and investment growth, according to data released May 19 by the National Bureau of Statistics. The downturn came amid peak U.S.-China trade tensions, which have since eased following a 90-day truce that reduced tariffs. Industrial output rose 6.1% year-over-year, down from 7.7% in March; retail sales grew 5.1%, and fixed-asset investment rose 4%. While short-term trade may rise as U.S. importers rush to capitalize on the truce, economists warn that deeper stimulus is still needed for China to meet its 5% growth target amid structural weaknesses. Wall Street Journal

Okinawans split over whether US bases are worth the burden. Okinawans remain deeply divided over the presence of U.S. military bases, which occupy roughly 25% of the island and host 29,000 American troops. While Tokyo views the $1.4 billion annual cost as essential for national security and the U.S.-Japan alliance, many locals see the bases as a burden, citing decades of sexual assault cases, noise, and environmental damage. A 2023 poll showed 70% of residents believe the military presence is unfair. Some support the bases for economic reasons, particularly in tourism and employment, though critics argue they only contribute around 5% to local income. Mayor Denny Tamaki and scholars contend that land reuse could generate far greater economic value. Strategically, the bases make Okinawa a potential target, especially amid tensions with China. Yet others, especially younger residents, see the U.S. presence as protective or beneficial. The situation reflects a complex mix of geopolitical interests, historical trauma, economic dependency, and evolving public sentiment. Deutsche Welle

Thailand and Indonesia announce strategic partnership, vow to boost economic and defense ties. During Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s state visit to Thailand on Monday, the first by an Indonesian leader in 20 years, Jakarta and Bangkok agreed to raise their bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership. Marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties, both nations committed to expanding cooperation in trade, investment, tourism, food security, defense, and cybersecurity. Subianto said they spoke about bolstering maritime security coordination, counterterrorism efforts, cybersecurity collaboration, joint military drills, and “fostering defense industry partnerships.” They also pledged stronger efforts against transnational crimes such as online scams, human trafficking, and drug trafficking. Subianto praised Thailand’s role in addressing Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, calling for inclusive national dialogue and reaffirming ASEAN’s unity and centrality. The leaders underscored the importance of peace and regional stability. Associated Press

AFRICA

Sudanese army chief appoints first prime minister since war began over two years ago. Sudan’s army chief, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, has appointed Kamil al-Taib Idris as the country’s first prime minister since civil war erupted in April 2023, a move aimed at forming a transitional government following recent military gains over the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Idris, a legal expert with no known political affiliations, is seen as a potentially unifying figure amid Sudan's deep crisis. The war has killed at least 20,000 people, displaced nearly 13 million, and left half the population facing hunger. Idris replaces Abdalla Hamdok, who resigned in 2022 amid political deadlock and protests. Meanwhile, the RSF and its allies have proposed their own political charter from Kenya, advocating for a decentralized, democratic state. Idris previously served as Sudan’s legal adviser at the U.N. and is a member of the U.N. International Law Commission. Associated Press Bloomberg

Families find a new danger in Sudan's battered capital, unexploded shells. In the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, residents returning to war-ravaged neighborhoods are facing a deadly new threat: unexploded ordnance left behind in the wake of two years of civil war. Ammunition, missiles, and drones are scattered across homes, schools, shops, and streets, posing serious risks. Clearance teams, including Sudanese and UN personnel, are working to remove these dangers but are critically understaffed and underfunded, especially following U.S. aid cuts. So far, over 12,000 devices have been destroyed, but thousands more remain. At least 16 civilians have recently been killed by munitions explosions, though the actual toll may be higher. Volunteer groups are helping, often handling live shells with minimal equipment. Authorities say $90 million is needed to begin proper demining. Despite the risks, over 100,000 people have returned to Khartoum since the army reclaimed it from the Rapid Support Forces, which still control parts of western Sudan and now rely on drone attacks. Reuters

Rebels in Captured City Force Residents to Clean Sewers and Morgues at Gunpoint. Since M23 rebels seized Goma, eastern Congo’s largest city, in January 2025, residents have been forced to clean sewers, markets, and morgues at gunpoint under the rebels' authoritarian rule. The Rwandan-backed group has replaced all state functions, using forced labor, extortion, and violent repression to consolidate control. Human Rights Watch reports executions of civilians suspected of army ties. M23 imposes steep fines, conscripts locals, and taxes mineral exports—earning up to $800,000 monthly from coltan alone. The Congolese government has lost access to Goma’s financial system, deepening the region’s collapse. Rwanda denies sending troops, though UN reports say otherwise. Aid access has been severely disrupted, and businesses like Twangiza Mining have halted operations due to rising rebel tax demands. Despite claims of restoring order, residents and human rights groups describe the occupation as brutal and destabilizing, with the rebels modeling their rule on Rwanda's militarized governance. Wall Street Journal

South Africa’s President to Challenge Trump on Afrikaner Refugees. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will visit the White House on Wednesday to challenge President Donald Trump’s claims that white Afrikaners are facing genocide and to reset strained U.S.–South Africa ties. Ramaphosa aims to counter Trump’s refugee policy—under which 59 Afrikaners were admitted to the U.S. this month—by urging an independent investigation and highlighting actual farm violence data, which shows most victims are Black. He also plans to pitch economic partnerships, including Tesla charging stations and SpaceX launch sites, to Elon Musk, who may attend the meeting. Additionally, Ramaphosa will confront Trump over Israel’s conduct in Gaza, which South Africa has labeled genocidal, and propose a new bilateral trade deal. The visit underscores Ramaphosa’s challenge in defending South African policies while appealing to Trump’s business priorities amid broader geopolitical tensions. New York Times Reuters Al Jazeera

After violent clashes, at least 58 corpses are found in Libyan hospital, ministry says. At least 58 unidentified corpses were discovered on Monday in a hospital morgue in Tripoli's Abu Salim neighborhood, which was previously under the control of the Stabilization Support Apparatus (SSA) militia. The bodies, some burned and many decomposed, are being investigated by Libya’s interior ministry. The discovery follows the death of SSA leader Abdulghani Kikli (Ghaniwa) last week, which led to the militia's collapse and sparked violent clashes with factions loyal to Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah. These clashes, the worst in Tripoli in years, killed at least eight civilians. A separate group of nine unidentified corpses was also recently found in another SSA-controlled hospital. Dbeibah has ordered the dismantling of armed groups, calling it an "ongoing project," and has begun demolishing former militia strongholds. Libya remains unstable following years of civil conflict since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Members of Congress vow not to split Cyber Command, NSA. Legislators speaking during a hearing of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies and Information Systems have expressed opposition to ending the dual-hat relationship between the National Security Agency (NSA) and the U.S. Cyber Command. Advocates for maintaining the current agency arrangement say the military can benefit from NSA's unique intelligence insights and resources, leading to faster decision-making and operational actions. Opponents argue that the combined NSA-Cyber Command roles are too powerful to be vested in one person. Subcommittee chair Rep. Don Bacon, said in opening remarks on Friday that congressional Armed Services Committees are strongly opposed to ending the dual-hat relationship. Ranking subcommittee member Rep. Ro Khanna echoed Bacon's remarks, noting that sustaining the dual hat arrangement "is a bipartisan position," adding that "the support in Congress is very strong for keeping those two departments together.” DefenseScoop

The Tech Industry Is Huge—and Europe’s Share of It Is Very Small. Europe is falling significantly behind the U.S. and China in the global tech revolution, largely due to a risk-averse business culture, complex regulations, limited venture capital, and slow-moving bureaucracies. Despite strong research universities and engineering talent, Europe has failed to produce major tech giants comparable to Google or Apple, and only four of the world’s top 50 tech companies are European. Entrepreneurs cite slow decision-making, restrictive labor laws, and burdensome regulations—particularly around AI—as key barriers to growth. Many promising startups either relocate to the U.S., partner with American firms, or are acquired by them. While U.S. and Chinese firms aggressively expand their influence, European efforts are hampered by fragmented markets, outdated industries, and a focus on regulation over innovation, raising existential concerns about the continent’s economic future. Wall Street Journal

Flurry of AI initiatives involving Gulf states signals economic goals beyond region. With the launch of its new AI enterprise, Humain, Saudi Arabia, along with the Emiratis, has made AI a key component of their economic transformation and geopolitical influence. Humain resembles G42, the UAE's AI firm backed by Microsoft Corp., which plans to use its advanced chips to compete with CoreWeave. Another startup, the Abu Dhabi data analytics firm Presight AI, whose majority shareholder is G42, is a regional competitor to Palantir and is involved in smart city projects from Kazakhstan to Albania. Beyond deals announced by Nvidia and OpenAI, U.S. tech firms like Google and Oracle Corp. are also joining the effort. Oracle has committed to invest $14 billion over 10 years in Saudi Arabia for cloud services and AI technology. Scale AI, a startup backed by Amazon, is planning an office in Riyadh by the end of the year. Trevor Thompson, Scale AI's global managing director, commented that with the recent string of tech deals with the Gulf states, “outside of the US and China, I think this is really the fastest growing region for AI adoption.” Bloomberg

Nvidia joins investment initiative for Europe’s largest AI data center campus. Nvidia and MGX, a UAE advanced technology investor, are partnering with French companies to establish Europe's largest AI data center campus. The coalition plans to construct a campus near Paris that will have a capacity of 1.4 gigawatts. The initiative stems from a broader French Emirati AI cooperation agreement in February that featured Emirati investments of up to $56.4 billion in French data centers. Other partners in the AI campus include the Bouygues SA conglomerate, EDF Group, an energy operator, and Ecole Polytechnique, a science and engineering university. The data center campus represents a $9.5 billion investment, with the first phase expected to be operational in 2028. MGX has previously backed OpenAI and xAI, and is overseen by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who also chairs the UAE's G42 AI startup. Bloomberg

Nvidia CEO announces initiatives to expand options, interoperability of data centers. Speaking at the Computex trade show in Taiwan, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced plans that will incorporate rivals' chips in data centers built around its technology. The move was seen as recognition by Nvidia of the growth of in-house semiconductor development by major clients such as Microsoft and Amazon. Huang also introduced NVLink Fusion, a new system that expands the building of customized AI infrastructure. NVLink Fusion products create the option for users to combine their own central processing units with Nvidia’s AI chips or twin Nvidia silicon with another company’s AI accelerator. Huang also announced DGX Cloud Lepton, a service that makes its AI chips available on various cloud platforms for use by AI developers. In his keynote address, Huang also provided an update on the timing for Nvidia’s next-generation GB300 server systems, which he said will be ready for release by the third quarter of 2025. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal Cybernews Reuters

U.K. legal aid agency hacked with potential exposure of data of 2 million clients. Britain's Ministry of Justice has confirmed that hackers accessed a substantial data store containing information from applicants for legal aid. The unidentified hacking group, which claims to have collected data on more than 2 million clients of the Legal Aid Agency, has threatened to post online the information in what appears to be one of the most significant data breaches impacting the U.K. criminal justice system. A security expert noted that the targeted population "will include some of the most vulnerable people in our society." A spokesperson for the National Crime Agency confirmed the agency is aware of the incident and is responding in collaboration with the National Cyber Security Centre and the Justice Ministry. The government has obtained a legal injunction against the hackers, or any party involved in distributing the data, although injunctions rarely deter criminals operating anonymously and from hostile jurisdictions. The aid agency's online services have been temporarily shut down as the breach is investigated. The Record Bloomberg

Russian ‘Fancy Bear’ hackers probing Ukraine, East Europe targets to extract sensitive data. The ESET cybersecurity firm has identified a sophisticated cyber espionage campaign, codenamed RoundPress, directed against Ukrainian organizations via webmail vulnerabilities and SpyPress malware. The campaign is being carried out by Russia's Fancy Bear threat actors — aka Sednit — with the aim of exfiltrating confidential data from vulnerable webmail servers like RoundCube. The RoundPress operation is employing spearphishing emails to exploit vulnerabilities in various webmail platforms. The campaign injects malicious JavaScript code, dubbed SpyPress, into targeted browsers. ESET researchers say the primary targets of Operation RoundPress in 2024 were Ukrainian governmental entities and defense companies in Bulgaria and Romania, some of which are producing Soviet-era weapons for Ukraine. Researchers also observed targeting of national governments in Greece, Cameroon, Ecuador, Serbia, and Cyprus. Hackread

U.S. officials question Apple deal to incorporate Alibaba AI tech in China-market iPhones. White House officials and members of the House Select Committee on China have asked Apple executives for details of a deal involving the incorporation of Alibaba-powered AI features into iPhones sold in China. U.S. officials have raised questions about the data that would be shared with Alibaba and if the proposed deal involves Apple making any commitments to Chinese regulators. Ranking member of the House committee, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, described Alibaba as "a poster child for the Chinese Communist Party's military-civil fusion strategy." A Bloomberg Intelligence analyst said that U.S. resistance to a deal with Apple could impact Alibaba's cloud services revenue as well as the iPhone's market share in China. An industry observer said Apple has much more to lose than Alibaba because “ultimately Apple will need an AI partner in China or its phones will lose competitiveness.” Bloomberg TechCrunch

China reports 50 percent surge in April in industrial robot production. China's National Bureau of Statistics has reported that the country's production of industrial robots increased by over 50 percent in April. Over 71,000 industrial robots were produced nationwide in April, improving on the 16.7 percent rise reported in March and the 27 percent growth of the January-February timeframe. Robot output increased 34.1 percent over the same period last year. Activity in the sector is reflected in a manufacturing push to integrate humanoid robots in factory settings. UBTech Robotics of Shenzhen plans to put humanoid robots into mass production by the end of 2025 while Unitree Robotics of Hangzhou has opened a new factory this year to meet the demand for quadruped robot dogs and humanoid robots. South China Morning Post

China reports expanding use of domestic satellite navigation system over GPS. China's version of the Global Positioning System (GPS), the BeiDou satellite navigation system, grew by more than 7.7 percent in 2024, reinforcing its place in the domestic market with economic output of $79.9 billion last year. The system is compatible with 288 million smartphones, primarily domestic brands from producers such as Huawei and Xiaomi. BeiDou is used to track locations more than 1 trillion times each day and China's leading navigation apps, Baidu Maps and Amap, have used BeiDou to plot journeys covering 4 billion km daily. As a hedge against potential loss of U.S. services like GPS, BeiDou is expanding its primary market of smartphones and in-vehicle satellite navigation systems to wearables, drones, electric bikes, and robots. A sector expert explained that the GPS system “in China is now either not supported on some domestically made devices or deliberately not used due to security reasons, especially when a government agency, state-owned enterprise or military unit needs navigation services or extra-precise mapping.” South China Morning Post

Trump inks bill cracking down on deepfakes, non-consensual sharing of sexual imagery online. President Donald Trump on Monday signed the Take It Down Act, a bipartisan law targeting the non-consensual dissemination of explicit sexual imagery online, including AI-generated deepfakes. The law makes it a crime to distribute such images without consent, with penalties of up to three years in prison. It also requires social media platforms to remove the content within 48 hours of a victim’s request and take action to stop its spread. First Lady Melania Trump, who helped champion the legislation, called it a major victory for families and online safety. While some critics voiced concerns over potential free speech issues, the law was widely supported by lawmakers and tech companies amid growing calls to address online exploitation. Bloomberg CNN The Guardian

Severed Fingers and ‘Wrench Attacks’ Rattle the Crypto Elite. A wave of violent abductions targeting cryptocurrency executives and their families has shaken the crypto elite worldwide, with a surge in so-called “wrench attacks”—physical assaults aimed at forcing victims to hand over digital assets. On May 14 in Paris, masked men attempted to kidnap the daughter of Paymium’s CEO. Similar incidents have occurred globally, including severed fingers, home invasions, and ransom videos. Victims often include high-profile individuals whose wealth or identities were exposed through data breaches, like the 2020 Ledger hack. As crypto values soar—bitcoin is up 54% in a year—criminals have shifted from hacking to physical coercion. After meeting crypto leaders, French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau announced new security measures. Meanwhile, firms like Ledger face lawsuits, and executives are removing personal data from public records. One victim, Ledger co-founder David Balland, had a finger cut off during a ransom ordeal. Survivors and critics say authorities are struggling to curb this growing criminal threat. Wall Street Journal Politico EU

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The World of Threats – According to the Defense Intelligence Agency

OPINION - “[Russian President Vladimir] Putin almost certainly is committed to victory in Ukraine, and his objectives remain mostly unchanged since the beginning of the war: Ukrainian neutrality and a further partition of the Ukrainian state. In the absence of a negotiated settlement or, alternatively, robust Western aid, the battlefield outlook probably will continue to slowly trend in Russia’s favor through 2025, though Russian battlefield gains are slowing and continue to come at the expense of high personnel and equipment losses.”

That was an excerpt from the 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and presented last Thursday to the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations by Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, DIA’s Director.

Kruse said the DIA Assessment is meant “to convey not only what we see as the current threats, but also to illuminate the trends and threats we see going forward that we must address.”

Although the subcommittee hearing covered many subjects, I found some DIA assessments about Russia, China and a few other counties most illuminating and discuss them below.

For example, DIA categorized Russian battlefield losses, saying, “Since the [Ukraine] war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters, and more than 10 naval vessels. Russia has experienced more than 700,000 personnel casualties during the war… [including] more than 170,000 fatalities” in ground forces.

DIA identified that Russian “overusage of aircraft and pilots in combat operations, as well as poor force implementation, probably will strain Russia’s Aerospace Forces’ operations in 2025, but not disrupt the pace of Aerospace Forces employment in the conflict. These forces have demonstrated varying degrees of proficiency and capability in Ukraine, leading to both substantial losses of equipment and veteran personnel, as well as the development of new tactics for weapons employments, such as glide bombs.”

Nonetheless, according to the DIA Assessment, “Although Putin and his military leaders probably would prefer more rapid battlefield gains, Moscow seems comfortable with the current cost of its slow advances, calculating they can steadily drain Ukraine’s resources and will, and outlast the West’s support for Ukraine.”

DIA then projected that “Russia’s conventional capabilities to deter, fight, or militarily compete with NATO are likely to be degraded for at least the next three years as the majority of all combat-capable Russian units are committed to the war in Ukraine. Russia faces tradeoffs between modernizing weapons and resupplying its forces in Ukraine, and Russia’s defense

industry is giving priority to refurbishing its equipment and existing platforms ahead of producing new or modernized weapons systems.”

In 2025, according to DIA, “Russia plans to spend at least $150 billion on defense- and security-related expenditures, which is an inflation-adjusted increase of 19 percent from 2024 and will constitute approximately 40 percent of Russia’s federal budget.”

As a result, “Russia is experiencing labor shortages in the [overall] economy, which along with sanctions, are driving up costs for its defense industry. These rising defense production costs probably will hamper Russia’s long-term modernization efforts, particularly for producing advanced equipment,” according to DIA.

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Learning lessons

However, the DIA assessment also suggested that the Russians – along with the U.S. and NATO countries — are learning new tactics from the Ukraine war.

For example, DIA said, “Russia is employing EW (electronic warfare) in offensive and defensive operations to disrupt Ukraine’s communications and weapons guidance. Russia designs its EW capabilities specifically to counter Western-supplied technologies. Additionally, Russia’s use of UAVs (unmanned air vehicles, drones) in the conflict has expanded dramatically as these systems have proven to be cost-effective tools to detect enemy movements, provide artillery targeting assistance, and conduct short- and long-range strikes.”

And while President Trump has made repeated calls for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, the DIA said that “Russia is targeting critical Ukraine infrastructure with a combination of one-way attack UAVs and long-range missiles to degrade its national will to fight,” adding that “Russia is likely to continue its strategy of attrition, focused on degrading Ukraine’s ability and will to resist through 2025, and allowing Russia to impose its preferred terms in any future negotiated settlement.”

In the nuclear field, DIA noted, “Russia is expanding its nuclear forces by adding new capabilities, including nuclear air-to-air missiles and novel nuclear systems. Russia probably maintains a nuclear stockpile of about 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and up to 2,000 non-strategic warheads. Russia is expanding its nuclear posture to Belarus by establishing missile and nuclear-capable aircraft capabilities, renovating a nuclear weapons storage site, and training Belarusian crews to handle tactical nuclear weapons.”

Although, as DIA pointed out, “Throughout the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has used nuclear-related rhetoric,” it also concluded that “Russia is very unlikely to use nuclear weapons in the conflict unless Russian leadership judged it faced an existential threat to the regime.”

The view of China

To me, DIA’s most interesting views of China relate first to Taiwan and second to its military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

On Taiwan, DIA said, “China is likely to continue its campaign of diplomatic, information, military, and economic pressure on Taiwan to advance its long-term objective of unification with Taiwan, deter any move by Taiwan toward independence, and test the United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s defense.”

And while China has military options such air and maritime blockades, the seizure of Taiwan’s smaller outlying islands, joint firepower strikes, and even an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, DIA said, “China appears willing to defer seizing Taiwan by force as long as it calculates unification ultimately can be negotiated. The costs of forcing unification continue to outweigh the benefits, and its stated redlines have not been crossed by Taiwan or its partners and allies.”

Meanwhile, according to DIA, “China is improving PLA systems to operate further from China for longer periods and establishing a more robust overseas logistics and basing infrastructure to sustain deployments at greater distances, efforts that can potentially threaten U.S. global operations or international commerce during a conflict.”

One China downside, described by DIA, was that “President Xi continues to publicly express concern about disloyalty and corruption in the PLA’s ranks. In 2024, a long-serving admiral in charge of enforcing loyalty and ideological compliance across the PLA was removed and investigated for corruption. The dismissal resembles the abrupt removal in 2023 of China’s defense minister and senior PLA Rocket Force officers, reportedly because of corruption surrounding weapons procurement and nuclear modernization. In mid-March, press outlets identified a vice-chairman of China’s Military Commission—Gen He Weidong—as another senior target of anti-corruption investigations.”

The Iran assessment

Since U.S. negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program continue, the DIA’s analysis of that situation is worth noting as well.

“Iran almost certainly is not producing nuclear weapons,” DIA said, “but Iran has undertaken activities in recent years that better position it to produce them, if it chooses to do so.” Since 2019, after then-President Trump pulled out of the Obama-signed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, Iran has increased “the size and enrichment levels of its uranium stockpile, producing small quantities of uranium metal, restricting International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring to pre-JCPOA levels, and expanding uranium enrichment at its Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant,” DIA said, adding, “These actions reduce the time required to produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a first nuclear device to probably less than one week.”

But, DIA surmises, “Iran’s senior leaders probably have not decided to restart its pre-2003 nuclear weapons program, but since April 2025, Iranian officials have threatened to revisit their nuclear doctrine if its nuclear facilities were attacked.”

One more item is worth mentioning here.

The DIA said, “The terrorist threat to the U.S. Homeland remains dynamic and diffuse as terrorist groups decentralize attack plotting efforts.” The DIA then specifically mentioned the terrorist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, better known as ISIS.

“Over the next year,” DIA said, “ISIS probably will try to conduct high-profile attacks in the West, similar to the group’s attacks in France and Belgium approximately a decade ago. ISIS’s affiliates in Afghanistan and Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen probably pose the greatest threat to the United States…In spring 2024, eight individuals with potential ties to ISIS were arrested in the United States, having entered through the U.S. southern border, which shows the threat of individuals with potential ties to terrorist groups transiting the southern border.”

I focus on this item because over the years President Trump has insisted, as he did as recently as last Wednesday in Qatar, "We defeated 100% of the ISIS caliphate in just a very short period of time, totally different from what I was told in Washington D.C. by a bunch of frickin' losers."

Given the Trump administration firing of the two top officials at the National Intelligence Council for their report that contradicted the Trump view of Venezuelan gangs, I hope DIA Director Lt. Gen. Kruse’s job is not endangered by his reporting that ISIS is still very active.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

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